WORLD MALT AND MALTING BARLEY: COMPETITION, MARKETING, AND TRADE

Recent trends in production marketing, trade, and policies affecting world malting barley and malt sector are examined. A spatial equilibrium model of production and trade is used to assess the effects of alternative levels of supply, demand, and policy variables on composition and direction of malting barley and malt trade flows.malting barley, malt, beer, trade, spatial equilibrium, Marketing, International Relations/Trade,

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT IN WHEAT

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), commonly known as scab, has been a severe problem for wheat producers in recent years. This study estimates the economic value of crop losses suffered by wheat producers in the 1990s. Nine states and three wheat classes are included in the analysis, which considers the effects of scab on both production and average prices received. The cumulative value of losses (1991-97) in scab-affected regions is estimated at $1.3 billion. Two states, North Dakota and Minnesota, account for over two-thirds of these dollar losses.Fusarium Head Blight, scab, crop losses, wheat, Production Economics,

CREDIT GUARANTEE PROGRAMS AND U.S. MARKET SHARE IN SELECTED WHEAT IMPORT MARKETS

Export credit guarantee programs are under increasing scrutiny, as policymakers seek assurance that the budgetary costs and risks borne by taxpayers are justified by expanded agricultural exports. This study provides empirical estimates of the effects of credit guarantees on U.S. wheat exports to major recipient countries.Credit Guarantee Programs, Wheat Exports, Armington Demand Models, International Relations/Trade,

CREDIT GUARANTEE PROGRAMS AND U.S. MARKET SHARE IN SELECTED WHEAT IMPORT MARKETS

Export credit guarantee programs are under increasing scrutiny, as policymakers seek assurance that the budgetary costs and risks borne by taxpayers are justified by expanded agricultural exports. This study provides empirical estimates of the effects of credit guarantees on U.S. wheat exports to major recipient countries

IMPORT DEMAND FOR MALT: A TIMES SERIES AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

European Union (EU) dominance of the world malt trade is thought to be due to quality advantages and/or due to export restitutions. A Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) was estimated for four major malt importing countries: Japan, Brazil, Philippines, and Venezuela. Elasticities of substitution for malt among different sources were computed. Results show that malt imported from the EU is least substitutable with malt from other sources, and demand for EU malt is less responsive to changes in price. Expenditure elasticities indicate that the four importers spend proportionately more on malt imports from the EU compared to malt from other sources. For these reasons, the study concludes that price subsidy-based export expansion measures for non-EU malt may have limited effects

IMPORT DEMAND FOR MALT: A TIMES SERIES AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

European Union (EU) dominance of the world malt trade is thought to be due to quality advantages and/or due to export restitutions. A Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) was estimated for four major malt importing countries: Japan, Brazil, Philippines, and Venezuela. Elasticities of substitution for malt among different sources were computed. Results show that malt imported from the EU is least substitutable with malt from other sources, and demand for EU malt is less responsive to changes in price. Expenditure elasticities indicate that the four importers spend proportionately more on malt imports from the EU compared to malt from other sources. For these reasons, the study concludes that price subsidy-based export expansion measures for non-EU malt may have limited effects.Malt Import Demand; LA/AIDS; Export Subsidy; Substitutability.

ADDITIONALITY OF CREDIT GUARANTEES FOR U.S. WHEAT EXPORTS

The value of credit guarantee programs has recently been called into question. Credit guarantees are important marketing tools in the world wheat market, both to develop new markets and to compete in existing markets. This study examines the additionality of export credit guarantees. Empirical demand models were developed and estimated using pooled data among importing countries. Models were estimated for each of the principal exporting countries providing export credit guarantees: the United States, Canada and France. Additionality of credit guarantees were also contrasted to the Export Enhancement Program. Positive additionality was found for CCC guarantees, indicating that the GSM programs have resulted in additional exports that would not have occurred without the programs. Additionality was not constant across exporters. Additionality was estimated at 12.6 MMT for credit guarantees and 19 MMT for EEP. The U.S. results, when considering costs of the programs, indicate that the CCC subsidy (from guarantees), on a per dollar of subsidy basis, provides about four times more additionality than EEP. These results cast doubt on the price subsidy equivalence of guarantees. The subsidy implied in Canadian credit has a significant and negative effect on U.S. wheat exports. The magnitude of the coefficient is larger than the magnitude of the CCC guarantee subsidy. In the Canadian demand model, the effect of the CCC subsidy is insignificant. The results suggest that Canada's guarantee program does more to displace U.S. sales than it does to help Canadian sales. Further, as a whole CCC guarantees offset Canadian guarantees and outperform COFACE guarantees

TRADE IN MINOR OILSEEDS: A SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF SUNFLOWER AND CANOLA

A spatial-equilibrium model of trade in sunflower and canola (seed, oil, and meal) is used to assess alternative trade policy scenarios and their implications for North American producers. Simulations address effects of the U.S. SOAP program, NAFTA, the GATT agreement, EU supply restrictions, and tariffs in major import markets

WORLD MALT AND MALTING BARLEY: COMPETITION, MARKETING, AND TRADE

Recent trends in production marketing, trade, and policies affecting world malting barley and malt sector are examined. A spatial equilibrium model of production and trade is used to assess the effects of alternative levels of supply, demand, and policy variables on composition and direction of malting barley and malt trade flows