Authors' reply to Colquhoun and Buchinsky

No abstract available

The emergence of proton nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics in the cardiovascular arena as viewed from a clinical perspective

The ability to phenotype metabolic profiles in serum has increased substantially in recent years with the advent of metabolomics. Metabolomics is the study of the metabolome, defined as those molecules with an atomic mass less than 1.5 kDa. There are two main metabolomics methods: mass spectrometry (MS) and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR) spectroscopy, each with its respective benefits and limitations. MS has greater sensitivity and so can detect many more metabolites. However, its cost (especially when heavy labelled internal standards are required for absolute quantitation) and quality control is sub-optimal for large cohorts. 1H NMR is less sensitive but sample preparation is generally faster and analysis times shorter, resulting in markedly lower analysis costs. 1H NMR is robust, reproducible and can provide absolute quantitation of many metabolites. Of particular relevance to cardio-metabolic disease is the ability of 1H NMR to provide detailed quantitative data on amino acids, fatty acids and other metabolites as well as lipoprotein subparticle concentrations and size. Early epidemiological studies suggest promise, however, this is an emerging field and more data is required before we can determine the clinical utility of these measures to improve disease prediction and treatment. This review describes the theoretical basis of 1H NMR; compares MS and 1H NMR and provides a tabular overview of recent 1H NMR-based research findings in the atherosclerosis field, describing the design and scope of studies conducted to date. 1H NMR metabolomics-CVD related research is emerging, however further large, robustly conducted prospective, genetic and intervention studies are needed to advance research on CVD risk prediction and to identify causal pathways amenable to intervention

Weight trajectories through infancy and childhood and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adolescence: the ALSPAC study

Background and Aims: Adiposity is a key risk factor for NAFLD. Few studies have examined prospective associations of infant and childhood adiposity with subsequent NAFLD risk. We examined associations of weight-for-height trajectories from birth to age 10 with liver outcomes in adolescence, and assessed the extent to which associations are mediated through fat mass at the time of outcome assessment.<p></p> Methods: Individual trajectories of weight and height were estimated for participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using random-effects linear-spline models. Associations of birthweight (adjusted for birth length) and weight change (adjusted for length/height change) from 0–3 months, 3 months–1 y, 1–3 y, 3–7 y, and 7–10 y with ultrasound scan (USS) determined liver fat and stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) at mean age 17.8 y were assessed with linear and logistic regressions. Mediation by concurrent fat mass was assessed with adjustment for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y.<p></p> Results: Birth weight was positively associated with liver stiffness and negatively with ALT and AST. Weight change from birth to 1 y was not associated with outcomes. Weight change from 1–3 y, 3–7 y, and 7–10 y was consistently positively associated with USS and blood-based liver outcomes. Adjusting for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y attenuated associations toward the null, suggesting associations are largely mediated by concurrent body fatness.<p></p> Conclusions: Greater rates of weight-for-height change between 1 y and 10 y are consistently associated with adverse liver outcomes in adolescence. These associations are largely mediated through concurrent fatness

Physical activity is prospectively associated with adolescent nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to assess whether objectively measured physical activity at mean ages 12 and 14 years are prospectively associated with ultrasound scan liver fat and stiffness (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase [AST], and [gamma]-glutamyl transferase [GGT]) assessed at mean age 17.8 years. Methods: Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Total physical activity (counts per minute) and minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using ActiGraph accelerometers at mean ages 12 and 14 years. Results: Greater total physical activity and MVPA at ages 12 and 14 years were associated with lower odds of liver fat and lower GGT levels at mean age 17.8 years, such as per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the confounder adjusted odds ratio of liver fat was 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27–0.84). Associations attenuated after additional adjustment for fat mass as a potential confounder (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.65 [95% CI 0.35–1.21]) or a potential mediator (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.59 [95% CI 0.32–1.09]). Results did not further attenuate after additional adjustment for insulin resistance. There was some evidence that greater total physical activity and MVPA at age 12 years were associated with the higher AST levels. Conclusions: Adolescents who were more active in childhood have lower odds of fatty liver and lower GGT levels. These findings are likely to be, at least in part, explained by adiposity

Maternal thyroid function and child educational attainment: prospective cohort study

Objective: To determine if first trimester maternal thyroid dysfunction is a critical determinant of child scholastic performance and overall educational attainment. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort in the UK. Participants: 4615 mother-child pairs with an available first trimester sample (median 10 weeks gestation, interquartile range 8-12). Exposures: Free thyroxine, thyroid stimulating hormone, and thyroid peroxidase antibodies assessed as continuous measures and the seven clinical categories of maternal thyroid function. Main outcome measures: Five age-specific national curriculum assessments in 3580 children at entry stage assessment at 54 months, increasing up to 4461 children at their final school assessment at age 15. Results: No strong evidence of clinically meaningful associations of first trimester free thyroxine and thyroid stimulating hormone levels with entry stage assessment score or Standard Assessment Test scores at any of the key stages was found. Associations of maternal free thyroxine or thyroid stimulating hormone with the total number of General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs) passed (range 0-16) were all close to the null: free thyroxine, rate ratio per pmol/L 1.00 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.01); and thyroid stimulating hormone, rate ratio 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02). No important relationship was observed when more detailed capped scores of GCSEs allowing for both the number and grade of pass or when language, mathematics, and science performance were examined individually or when all educational assessments undertaken by an individual from school entry to leaving were considered. 200 (4.3%) mothers were newly identified as having hypothyroidism or subclinical hypothyroidism and 97 (2.1%) subclinical hyperthyroidism or hyperthyroidism. Children of mothers with thyroid dysfunction attained an equivalent number of GCSEs and equivalent grades as children of mothers with euthyroidism. Conclusions: Maternal thyroid dysfunction in early pregnancy does not have a clinically important association with impaired child performance at school or educational achievement

Diabetes, driving and fasting during Ramadan:the interplay between secular and religious law

A large proportion of the Muslim population fasts during Ramadan. The risk of hypoglycemia is increased with fasting during Ramadan in people with diabetes who are on insulin and insulin secretagogues. Therefore, the combination of fasting with diabetes and driving presents a challenging situation, with legal implications for such individuals and their healthcare professionals. This novel, narrative, non-systematic review discusses the importance of addressing hypoglycemia in fasting with reference to secular legal guidance on driving with diabetes. We discuss religious aspects relating to fasting and driving in Islam. While there is no clear guidance or legal position on diabetes and driving for individuals who are fasting, Islamic law provides a logical framework to address this. Healthcare professionals need to raise and facilitate discussions on this often-overlooked topic with people with diabetes who are planning on fasting to minimize the potential for public harm. For some individuals fasting perhaps should be avoided when driving and that this religiously compatible position would best be adopted when one is dependent on driving for livelihood. Ultimately further research on glycemic control and management when fasting and driving, as well as a formal legal guidance on this topic, is required to safeguard healthcare professionals and the public from the potential dangers of driving with diabetes and fasting

Association between active commuting and incident cardiovascular disease, cancer, and mortality: prospective cohort study

Objective: To investigate the association between active commuting and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and all cause mortality. Design: Prospective population based study. Setting: UK Biobank. Participants: 263 450 participants (106 674 (52%) women; mean age 52.6), recruited from 22 sites across the UK. The exposure variable was the mode of transport used (walking, cycling, mixed mode v non-active (car or public transport)) to commute to and from work on a typical day. Main outcome measures: Incident (fatal and non-fatal) CVD and cancer, and deaths from CVD, cancer, or any causes. Results: 2430 participants died (496 were related to CVD and 1126 to cancer) over a median of 5.0 years (interquartile range 4.3-5.5) follow-up. There were 3748 cancer and 1110 CVD events. In maximally adjusted models, commuting by cycle and by mixed mode including cycling were associated with lower risk of all cause mortality (cycling hazard ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.83, P=0.002; mixed mode cycling 0.76, 0.58 to 1.00, P<0.05), cancer incidence (cycling 0.55, 0.44 to 0.69, P<0.001; mixed mode cycling 0.64, 0.45 to 0.91, P=0.01), and cancer mortality (cycling 0.60, 0.40 to 0.90, P=0.01; mixed mode cycling 0.68, 0.57 to 0.81, P<0.001). Commuting by cycling and walking were associated with a lower risk of CVD incidence (cycling 0.54, 0.33 to 0.88, P=0.01; walking 0.73, 0.54 to 0.99, P=0.04) and CVD mortality (cycling 0.48, 0.25 to 0.92, P=0.03; walking 0.64, 0.45 to 0.91, P=0.01). No statistically significant associations were observed for walking commuting and all cause mortality or cancer outcomes. Mixed mode commuting including walking was not noticeably associated with any of the measured outcomes. Conclusions: Cycle commuting was associated with a lower risk of CVD, cancer, and all cause mortality. Walking commuting was associated with a lower risk of CVD independent of major measured confounding factors. Initiatives to encourage and support active commuting could reduce risk of death and the burden of important chronic conditions

The impact of confounding on the associations of different adiposity measures with the incidence of cardiovascular disease: a cohort study of 296 535 adults of white European descent

Aims: The data regarding the associations of body mass index (BMI) with cardiovascular (CVD) risk, especially for those at the low categories of BMI, are conflicting. The aim of our study was to examine the associations of body composition (assessed by five different measures) with incident CVD outcomes in healthy individuals. Methods and results: A total of 296 535 participants (57.8% women) of white European descent without CVD at baseline from the UK biobank were included. Exposures were five different measures of adiposity. Fatal and non-fatal CVD events were the primary outcome. Low BMI (≤18.5 kg m−2) was associated with higher incidence of CVD and the lowest CVD risk was exhibited at BMI of 22–23 kg m−2 beyond, which the risk of CVD increased. This J-shaped association attenuated substantially in subgroup analyses, when we excluded participants with comorbidities. In contrast, the associations for the remaining adiposity measures were more linear; 1 SD increase in waist circumference was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–1.19] for women and 1.10 (95% CI 1.08–1.13) for men with similar magnitude of associations for 1 SD increase in waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, and percentage body fat mass. Conclusion: Increasing adiposity has a detrimental association with CVD health in middle-aged men and women. The association of BMI with CVD appears more susceptible to confounding due to pre-existing comorbidities when compared with other adiposity measures. Any public misconception of a potential ‘protective’ effect of fat on CVD risk should be challenged

Customised and Noncustomised Birth Weight Centiles and Prediction of Stillbirth and Infant Mortality and Morbidity: A Cohort Study of 979,912 Term Singleton Pregnancies in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence to support the use of customised centile charts to identify those at risk of stillbirth and infant death at term. We sought to determine birth weight thresholds at which mortality and morbidity increased and the predictive ability of noncustomised (accounting for gestational age and sex) and partially customised centiles (additionally accounting for maternal height and parity) to identify fetuses at risk. METHODS: This is a population-based linkage study of 979,912 term singleton pregnancies in Scotland, United Kingdom, between 1992 and 2010. The main exposures were noncustomised and partially customised birth weight centiles. The primary outcomes were infant death, stillbirth, overall mortality (infant and stillbirth), Apgar score <7 at 5 min, and admission to the neonatal unit. Optimal thresholds that predicted outcomes for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles were calculated. Prediction of mortality between non- and partially customised birth weight centiles was compared using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and net reclassification index (NRI). FINDINGS: Birth weight ≤25th centile was associated with higher risk for all mortality and morbidity outcomes. For stillbirth, low Apgar score, and neonatal unit admission, risk also increased from the 85th centile. Similar patterns and magnitude of associations were observed for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles. Partially customised birth weight centiles did not improve the discrimination of mortality (AUROC 0.61 [95%CI 0.60, 0.62]) compared with noncustomised birth weight centiles (AUROC 0.62 [95%CI 0.60, 0.63]) and slightly underperformed in reclassifying pregnancies to different risk categories for both fatal and non-fatal adverse outcomes (NRI -0.027 [95% CI -0.039, -0.016], p < 0.001). We were unable to fully customise centile charts because we lacked data on maternal weight and ethnicity. Additional analyses in an independent UK cohort (n = 10,515) suggested that lack of data on ethnicity in this population (in which national statistics show 98% are white British) and maternal weight would have misclassified ~15% of the large-for-gestation fetuses. CONCLUSIONS: At term, birth weight remains strongly associated with the risk of stillbirth and infant death and neonatal morbidity. Partial customisation does not improve prediction performance. Consideration of early term delivery or closer surveillance for those with a predicted birth weight ≤25th or ≥85th centile may reduce adverse outcomes. Replication of the analysis with fully customised centiles accounting for ethnicity is warranted.SI is funded by a UK Medical Research Council skills development fellowship (MR/N015177/1). DAL works in a Unit that receives funding from the University of Bristol and the UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12013/5); she is a National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator (NF-SI-0611-10196). This work is also supported by the NIHR through the University of Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and the University of Cambridge BRC. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Risk of anemia with metformin use in type 2 diabetes:A MASTERMIND study

Objective: To evaluate the association between metformin use and anemia risk in type 2 diabetes, and the time-course for this, in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and real-world population data. Research Design and Methods: Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin measure of &lt;11 g/dL. In the RCTs A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT; n = 3,967) and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS; n = 1,473), logistic regression was used to model anemia risk and nonlinear mixed models for change in hematological parameters. In the observational Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) population (n = 3,485), discrete-time failure analysis was used to model the effect of cumulative metformin exposure on anemia risk. Results: In ADOPT, compared with sulfonylureas, the odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) for anemia was 1.93 (1.10, 3.38) for metformin and 4.18 (2.50, 7.00) for thiazolidinediones. In UKPDS, compared with diet, the OR (95% CI) was 3.40 (1.98, 5.83) for metformin, 0.96 (0.57, 1.62) for sulfonylureas, and 1.08 (0.62, 1.87) for insulin. In ADOPT, hemoglobin and hematocrit dropped after metformin initiation by 6 months, with no further decrease after 3 years. In UKPDS, hemoglobin fell by 3 years in the metformin group compared with other treatments. At years 6 and 9, hemoglobin was reduced in all treatment groups, with no greater difference seen in the metformin group. In GoDARTS, each 1 g/day of metformin use was associated with a 2% higher annual risk of anemia. Conclusions: Metformin use is associated with early risk of anemia in individuals with type 2 diabetes, a finding consistent across two RCTs and replicated in one real-world study. The mechanism for this early fall in hemoglobin is uncertain, but given the time course, is unlikely to be due to vitamin B12 deficiency alone