Cosmology with the largest galaxy cluster surveys: Going beyond Fisher matrix forecasts

We make the first detailed MCMC likelihood study of cosmological constraints that are expected from some of the largest, ongoing and proposed, cluster surveys in different wave-bands and compare the estimates to the prevalent Fisher matrix forecasts. Mock catalogs of cluster counts expected from the surveys -- eROSITA, WFXT, RCS2, DES and Planck, along with a mock dataset of follow-up mass calibrations are analyzed for this purpose. A fair agreement between MCMC and Fisher results is found only in the case of minimal models. However, for many cases, the marginalized constraints obtained from Fisher and MCMC methods can differ by factors of 30-100%. The discrepancy can be alarmingly large for a time dependent dark energy equation of state, w(a); the Fisher methods are seen to under-estimate the constraints by as much as a factor of 4--5. Typically, Fisher estimates become more and more inappropriate as we move away from LCDM, to a constant-w dark energy to varying-w dark energy cosmologies. Fisher analysis, also, predicts incorrect parameter degeneracies. From the point of mass-calibration uncertainties, a high value of unknown scatter about the mean mass-observable relation, and its redshift dependence, is seen to have large degeneracies with the cosmological parameters sigma_8 and w(a) and can degrade the cosmological constraints considerably. We find that the addition of mass-calibrated cluster datasets can improve dark energy and sigma_8 constraints by factors of 2--3 from what can be obtained compared to CMB+SNe+BAO only. Since, details of future cluster surveys are still being planned, we emphasize that optimal survey design must be done using MCMC analysis rather than Fisher forecasting. [abridged]Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in JCA

Precision cosmology with a combination of wide and deep Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster surveys

We show the advantages of a wedding cake design for Sunyaev-Zel'dovich cluster surveys. We show that by dividing up a cluster survey into a wide and a deep survey, one can essentially recover the cosmological information that would be diluted in a single survey of the same duration due to the uncertainties in our understanding of cluster physics. The parameter degeneracy directions of the deep and wide surveys are slightly different, and combining them breaks these degeneracies effectively. A variable depth survey with a few thousand clusters is as effective at constraining cosmological parameters as a single depth survey with a much larger cluster sample.Comment: 4 figures, 1 table; revised versio

A new Tolman test of a cosmic distance duality relation at 21 cm

Under certain general conditions in an expanding universe, the luminosity distance (d_L) and angular diameter distance (d_A) are connected by the Etherington relation as d_L = d_A (1 + z)^2. The Tolman test suggests the use of objects of known surface brightness, to test this relation. In this letter, we propose the use of redshifted 21 cm signal from disk galaxies, where neutral hydrogen (HI) masses are seen to be almost linearly correlated with surface area, to conduct a new Tolman test. We construct simulated catalogs of galaxies, with the observed size-luminosity relation and realistic redshift evolution of HI mass functions, likely to be detected with the planned Square Kilometer Array (SKA). We demonstrate that these observations may soon provide the best implementation of the Tolman test to detect any violation of the Etherington relation.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, v2: published versio