Projected Trajectory of TB Incidence in Africa, 2013–2022.

<p>Panel A shows the TB incidence rate (per 100,000 population per year), while Panel B shows the projected number of TB cases per year in an area with an adult population of 10 million in 2002, assuming constant 2.25% population growth.</p

One-Way Sensitivity Analyses.

<p>Blue bars represent the low end of the sensitivity range of each parameter, as shown in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0070485#pone-0070485-t001" target="_blank">Tables 1</a> and <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0070485#pone-0070485-t002" target="_blank">2</a>, and red bars represent the corresponding high values. The outcome was the percentage reduction in TB incidence, comparing the same-day microscopy strategy to the standard of care at the end of 2022; this was estimated at 17.5% in the base case (vertical line in this Figure, corresponds to the difference between green and red lines at the far right of <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0070485#pone-0070485-g001" target="_blank">Figure 1</a>). Although sensitivity analysis was performed on all parameters, only those that caused a +/−5% change in the projected value of the outcome are shown here.</p

Additional Static Model Parameters.

<p>Additional Static Model Parameters.</p

Model Compartmental Structure.

<p>Upon infection with TB, susceptible individuals may progress rapidly to active TB or enter a state of latent infection, from which active TB can develop at any time. Reinfection of latently-infected individuals occurs, as do relapse and reinfection after treatment/recovery. Smear-negative disease is modeled as a weighted average of smear-negative pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease. The model population is also subdivided by HIV status (positive vs. negative); people living with HIV are at increased risk of primary progression and reactivation of latent TB, are more likely to have smear-negative disease, and experience higher mortality rates (both TB and non-TB mortality).</p

Cumulative Ten-Year Projected Burden of TB (2013–2022) in an African Area with a 2003 Population of 10 Million Adults.

<p>Cumulative Ten-Year Projected Burden of TB (2013–2022) in an African Area with a 2003 Population of 10 Million Adults.</p

30-day vital status for patients with each clinical predictor score.

<p>p <0.0001 for the difference in mortality across clinical predictor score values.</p

Screening and follow-up of study participants.

<p>Screening and follow-up of study participants.</p

Baseline characteristics and final diagnoses of 835 subjects.

<p>* Cough was a criterion for study inclusion.</p><p>** Rhonchi, crepitations, or bronchial breath sounds.</p><p>*** Four subjects had more than one diagnosis: two had pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) & <i>Pneumocystis</i> pneumonia, one had pulmonary TB & pulmonary Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS), one had pulmonary KS & <i>Pneumocystis</i> pneumonia, and one had pulmonary KS and presumed bacterial pneumonia.</p><p>ART, antiretroviral therapy; PCP, <i>Pneumocystis</i> pneumonia.</p><p>Baseline characteristics and final diagnoses of 835 subjects.</p

Stratification of patients’ 30-day risk of mortality based on clinical predictor score.

<p>Stratification of patients’ 30-day risk of mortality based on clinical predictor score.</p

Univariate analysis of the association between selected clinical characteristics and 30-day mortality.

<p>RR, risk ratio; CI, confidence interval; SE, standard error; PCP, <i>Pneumocystis</i> pneumonia.</p><p>Univariate analysis of the association between selected clinical characteristics and 30-day mortality.</p