Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP

ABSTRACT: Similar to a number of other right-wing populist parties in Europe, Great Britain's United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has experienced increased public support in recent years. Using aggregate data from monthly national surveys conducted between April 2004 and April 2014, time series analyses demonstrate that the dynamics of UKIP support were influenced by a combination of spatial and valence issues. A spatial issue, Euroscepticism, was fundamental, with UKIP support moving in dynamic equilibrium with changing public attitudes towards EU membership. In addition, widespread anti-immigration sentiment and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government combined with the “oxygen of publicity” to propel UKIP's surge. The political context after the 2010 general election helped as well by enabling UKIP to benefit from valence considerations. Many voters continued to doubt the competence of the major opposition party, Labour, while the Liberal Democrats were part of the government and, hence, unavailable as a protest vehicle. Since many of the forces driving UKIP support are beyond its control, the party's prospects are highly uncertain

Brexit and the everyday politics of emotion: methodological lessons from history

The 2016 European Union referendum campaign has been depicted as a battle between ‘heads’ and ‘hearts’, reason and emotion. Voters’ propensity to trust their feelings over expert knowledge has sparked debate about the future of democratic politics in what is increasingly believed to be an ‘age of emotion’. In this article, we argue that we can learn from the ways that historians have approached the study of emotions and everyday politics to help us make sense of this present moment. Drawing on William Reddy’s concept of ‘emotional regimes’, we analyse the position of emotion in qualitative, ‘everyday narratives’ about the 2016 European Union referendum. Using new evidence from the Mass Observation Archive, we argue that while reason and emotion are inextricable facets of political decision-making, citizens themselves understand the two processes as distinct and competing

British Election Study, October 1974: Scottish Cross-Section Sample

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner. Main Topics:Attitudinal/Behavioural Questions Attention to newspapers and television. Strength of political interest, attitude to election, perceived differences between political parties, opinion on Liberals and Scottish National Party. Opinion of Labour and Conservatives regarding rising prices. Knowledge, perception of parties' position/record on, and own opinion on: prices, strikes, unemployment, pensions, housing, North Sea Oil, Common Market, nationalisation, social services, wage controls and voluntary agreements, devolution, Scottish Assembly, Scottish Government. Should government: increase cash to health services, establish comprehensives, repatriate immigrants, control land, increase foreign aid, toughen up on crime, control pollution, give workers more power, curb Communists, spend on poverty, redistribute wealth, decentralise power, preserve countryside, maintain Catholic schools. Most/least important general aims. Degree of trust in Labour/Conservatives. Whether voted, when decided to vote, party preference (and strength of preference) second choice, vote in February/October 1974/1970, frequency of discussion about politics, party identification. Opinion on best type of government. Respondents were asked to give marks out of ten to political parties and personalities. Membership of party and/or political groups, political activity. Opinion on degree of power held by unions/big business. Predictions for: incomes, prices, unemployment, Britain's economy. Comparison of Britain's government and industry with that of Europe. Attitude towards: politicians, financial situation, chance of changing things, life in general, political parties, today's standards, occupation, local government, getting ahead, government's achievements. Likes/dislikes for Conservative, Labour, SNP and Liberals. Background Variables Age, sex, marital status, type of school attended, further education, tenure, type and length of residence, religion, extent of religiousness as a child and at present. Experience of unemployment in household, employment status (size of establishment) for respondent and spouse. Number of children. Income, trade union membership (respondent, spouse, and family). Place of residence during childhood. Respondent's and spouse's fathers' employment status, socio-economic group, social grade

British Election Study : EEC Referendum Survey, 1975

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner. Main Topics:Attitudinal/Behavioural Questions Readership of official leaflets on EEC, attitude to future referendum votes, expected effect of Britain's membership of EEC (in particular, prices). Vote in Referendum, strength of opinion about EEC, difference made to voting decision by new terms negotiated by the Government. Attitude to Labour government's handling of rising prices, party identification and strength of support. Respondents were asked to give marks out of ten to the Conservative, Labour and SNP parties. Degree of trust in Labour/Conservative parties. Knowledge of policy orientations of various power groups towards the EEC. Background Variables Age, sex, marital status, place of residence during childhood, subjective class, forced subjective class, family class. Tenure, type and length of residence. Employment status, degree of responsibility in and training for job (for respondent and spouse). Experience of unemployment in household, income. Trade union membership (respondent and spouse) socio-economic group