Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP

ABSTRACT: Similar to a number of other right-wing populist parties in Europe, Great Britain's United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has experienced increased public support in recent years. Using aggregate data from monthly national surveys conducted between April 2004 and April 2014, time series analyses demonstrate that the dynamics of UKIP support were influenced by a combination of spatial and valence issues. A spatial issue, Euroscepticism, was fundamental, with UKIP support moving in dynamic equilibrium with changing public attitudes towards EU membership. In addition, widespread anti-immigration sentiment and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government combined with the “oxygen of publicity” to propel UKIP's surge. The political context after the 2010 general election helped as well by enabling UKIP to benefit from valence considerations. Many voters continued to doubt the competence of the major opposition party, Labour, while the Liberal Democrats were part of the government and, hence, unavailable as a protest vehicle. Since many of the forces driving UKIP support are beyond its control, the party's prospects are highly uncertain

Brexit and the everyday politics of emotion: methodological lessons from history

The 2016 European Union referendum campaign has been depicted as a battle between ‘heads’ and ‘hearts’, reason and emotion. Voters’ propensity to trust their feelings over expert knowledge has sparked debate about the future of democratic politics in what is increasingly believed to be an ‘age of emotion’. In this article, we argue that we can learn from the ways that historians have approached the study of emotions and everyday politics to help us make sense of this present moment. Drawing on William Reddy’s concept of ‘emotional regimes’, we analyse the position of emotion in qualitative, ‘everyday narratives’ about the 2016 European Union referendum. Using new evidence from the Mass Observation Archive, we argue that while reason and emotion are inextricable facets of political decision-making, citizens themselves understand the two processes as distinct and competing

British Election Study, February 1974; Cross-Section Survey

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner. Main Topics:Attitudinal/Behavioural Questions Attention to television and newspapers, perceived bias in newspapers, perceived difference between political parties. Opinion of Conservative and Labour parties. Attitude to election and strength of political opinion and interest. Knowledge, perception of party position/record and own opinion on: prices, strikes in general, the miners' strike, pensions, the Common Market, nationalisation, social services, Communists, devolution, income tax and wage controls, Britain's dependency on other countries (USA, Russia, France, Germany and Australia). Trust in political parties, vote in election, and second choice, other parties considered, vote in 1970 and 1966. Frequency of discussion about politics, direction and strength of party identification. Respondents were asked to give marks out of ten to political parties and personalities. Prediction for incomes, unemployment, and Britain's economic situation. Opinion on: young people, accommodation, politicians, neighbourhood, life in general, personal financial status, occupation, political parties, today's standards, local government, change, getting ahead, government's achievements. Attitude to election results by a variety of criteria, identification of groups with too much or too little political power, groups with whom the respondent identifies. Likes and dislikes for Conservative and Labour parties. Background Variables Age, sex, marital status, employment status, socio-economic group, experience of unemployment in household, income, occupation, degree of supervision and responsibility in job (for self and spouse). Father's vote, party choice and strength of support. Father's occupation, employment status and social grade. Type of school attended, further education. Tenure, type and length of residence, expectation of move, place of residence during childhood. Trade union membership and interest, class identification. Newspapers read

British Election Study, February 1974; Cross-Section Survey

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner. Main Topics:Attitudinal/Behavioural Questions Attention to television and newspapers, perceived bias in newspapers, perceived difference between political parties. Opinion of Conservative and Labour parties. Attitude to election and strength of political opinion and interest. Knowledge, perception of party position/record and own opinion on: prices, strikes in general, the miners' strike, pensions, the Common Market, nationalisation, social services, Communists, devolution, income tax and wage controls, Britain's dependency on other countries (USA, Russia, France, Germany and Australia). Trust in political parties, vote in election, and second choice, other parties considered, vote in 1970 and 1966. Frequency of discussion about politics, direction and strength of party identification. Respondents were asked to give marks out of ten to political parties and personalities. Prediction for incomes, unemployment, and Britain's economic situation. Opinion on: young people, accommodation, politicians, neighbourhood, life in general, personal financial status, occupation, political parties, today's standards, local government, change, getting ahead, government's achievements. Attitude to election results by a variety of criteria, identification of groups with too much or too little political power, groups with whom the respondent identifies. Likes and dislikes for Conservative and Labour parties. Background Variables Age, sex, marital status, employment status, socio-economic group, experience of unemployment in household, income, occupation, degree of supervision and responsibility in job (for self and spouse). Father's vote, party choice and strength of support. Father's occupation, employment status and social grade. Type of school attended, further education. Tenure, type and length of residence, expectation of move, place of residence during childhood. Trade union membership and interest, class identification. Newspapers read

British Election Study, February 1974, October 1974, June 1975, May 1979; Panel Survey

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.&nbsp;British Election Study, 1974-1983 (BES): The BES was started as a research project at the University of Essex in 1974, to continue the series started by Butler and Stokes. The BES conducted interview surveys following the general elections of February 1974, October 1974 and May 1979. This series also includes a questionnaire survey conducted after the referendum on Britain's membership of the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1975 (see SN 830).<br

British Election Study, 1969, June 1970, February 1974; Panel Survey

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.&nbsp;Main Topics:Attitudinal/Behavioural Questions Attention to newspapers and television, interest in campaign, perceived difference between parties, attitude towards election. Knowledge, perception of party position/record, and own opinion on: rising prices, strikes in general, the miners' strike, taxation, the Common Market, social services, nationalisation, wage control. Opinion on amount of power held by unions/big business. Vote in 1974 and second choice, timing of voting decision, strength of party preference, party identification. Respondents were asked to give marks out of ten to political parties and personalities. Effect of governments on respondent's well-being. Prediction for Britain's economy. Perceived bias in newspapers. Likes/dislikes of Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties. Perception of class conflict and differences. Background Variables Age, sex, marital status, place of residence during childhood, subjective class, forced subjective class, family class. Tenure, type and length of residence. Employment status, degree of responsibility in and training for job (for respondent and spouse). Experience of unemployment in household, income. Trade union membership (respondent and spouse) socio-economic group