Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis

This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. The review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and crises in the past. For the 2008-09 crisis, we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence: drops in GDP and industrial production, currency depreciation, stock market performance, reserve losses, and participation in an IMF program. We find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008-09 crisis, in line with the conclusions of the pre-2008 literature. In addition to reserves, recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis. So is the exchange rate regime. We define the period of the global financial crisis as running from late 2008 to early 2009, which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as Obstfeld, Shambaugh and Taylor (2009, 2010) and Rose and Spiegel (2009a,b) which use annual data.

Prevalence and diagnosis of congenital uterine anomalies in women with reproductive failure: a critical appraisal

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of congenital uterine anomalies in women with reproductive failure remains unclear, largely due to methodological bias. The aim of this review is to assess the diagnostic accuracy of different methodologies and estimate the prevalence of congenital uterine anomalies in women with infertility and recurrent miscarriage (RM). METHODS: Studies from 1950-2007 were identified through a computer MEDLINE search; all relevant references were further reviewed. RESULTS: The most accurate diagnostic procedures are combined hysteroscopy and laparoscopy, sonohysterography (SHG) and possibly three-dimensional ultrasound (3D US). Two-dimensional ultrasound (2D US) and hysterosalpingography (HSG) are less accurate and are thus inadequate for diagnostic purposes. Preliminary studies (n=24) suggest MRI is a relatively sensitive tool. A critical analysis of studies suggests that the prevalence of congenital uterine anomalies is ~6.7% [confidence interval (CI) 95%, 6.0 – 7.4] in the general population, ~7.3% (CI 95%, 6.7 – 7.9) in the infertile population and ~16.7% (CI 95%, 14.8 – 18.6) in the recurrent miscarriage (RM) population. The arcuate uterus is the commonest anomaly in the general and RM population. In contrast, the septate uterus is the commonest anomaly in the infertile population, suggesting a possible association. CONCLUSION: Women with RM have a high prevalence of congenital uterine anomalies and should be thoroughly investigated. HSG and/or 2D US can be used as an initial screening tool. Combined hysteroscopy and laparoscopy, SHG and 3D US can be used for a definitive diagnosis. The accuracy and practicality of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) remains unclear

Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis

This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. The review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate are the two leading indicators that have proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and crises in the past. For the 2008-09 crisis, we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence: drops in GDP and industrial production, currency depreciation, stock market performance, reserve losses, or participation in an IMF program. We find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of the current crisis, in line with the conclusions of the earlier literature. In addition to reserves, recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis. That our data on the crisis period include the first quarter of 2009 may explain why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as Obstfeld, Shambaugh and Taylor (2009, 2010) and Rose and Spiegel (2009a,b).

Does free androgen index predict subsequent pregnancy outcome in women with recurrent miscarriage?

BACKGROUND: Several studies have investigated plasma androgen levels in women with recurrent miscarriage (RM) with conflicting results on whether an association between hyperandrogenaemia and RM exists. However, none of these studies included sensitive androgen measurements using a large data set. We therefore investigated the free androgen index (FAI) in a large number of women with RM in order to ascertain whether hyperandrogenaemia is a predictor of subsequent pregnancy outcome. METHODS: We studied 571 women who attended the Recurrent Miscarriage Clinic in Sheffield and presented with !3 consecutive miscarriages. Serum levels of total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin were measured in the early follicular phase and FAI was then deduced. RESULTS: The prevalence of hyperandrogenaemia in RM was 11% and in a subsequent pregnancy, the miscarriage rate was significantly higher in the raised FAI group (miscarriage rates of 68% and 40% for FAI > 5 and FAI 5 respectively, P 5 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: An elevated FAI appears to be a prognostic factor for a subsequent miscarriage in women with RM and is a more significant predictor of subsequent miscarriage than an advanced maternal age (!40 years) or a high number (!6) of previous miscarriages in this study

Clinical approach for the classification of congenital uterine malformations

A more objective, accurate and non-invasive estimation of uterine morphology is nowadays feasible based on the use of modern imaging techniques. The validity of the current classification systems in effective categorization of the female genital malformations has been already challenged. A new clinical approach for the classification of uterine anomalies is proposed. Deviation from normal uterine anatomy is the basic characteristic used in analogy to the American Fertility Society classification. The embryological origin of the anomalies is used as a secondary parameter. Uterine anomalies are classified into the following classes: 0, normal uterus; I, dysmorphic uterus; II, septate uterus (absorption defect); III, dysfused uterus (fusion defect); IV, unilateral formed uterus (formation defect); V, aplastic or dysplastic uterus (formation defect); VI, for still unclassified cases. A subdivision of these main classes to further anatomical varieties with clinical significance is also presented. The new proposal has been designed taking into account the experience gained from the use of the currently available classification systems and intending to be as simple as possible, clear enough and accurate as well as open for further development. This proposal could be used as a starting point for a working group of experts in the field