The importance of implementation strategy in scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF for diagnosis of tuberculosis in the Indian health-care system: a transmission model.

BACKGROUND: India has announced a goal of universal access to quality tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment. A number of novel diagnostics could help meet this important goal. The rollout of one such diagnostic, Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is being considered, but if Xpert is used mainly for people with HIV or high risk of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in the public sector, population-level impact may be limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a model of TB transmission, care-seeking behavior, and diagnostic/treatment practices in India and explored the impact of six different rollout strategies. Providing Xpert to 40% of public-sector patients with HIV or prior TB treatment (similar to current national strategy) reduced TB incidence by 0.2% (95% uncertainty range [UR]: -1.4%, 1.7%) and MDR-TB incidence by 2.4% (95% UR: -5.2%, 9.1%) relative to existing practice but required 2,500 additional MDR-TB treatments and 60 four-module GeneXpert systems at maximum capacity. Further including 20% of unselected symptomatic individuals in the public sector required 700 systems and reduced incidence by 2.1% (95% UR: 0.5%, 3.9%); a similar approach involving qualified private providers (providers who have received at least some training in allopathic or non-allopathic medicine) reduced incidence by 6.0% (95% UR: 3.9%, 7.9%) with similar resource outlay, but only if high treatment success was assured. Engaging 20% of all private-sector providers (qualified and informal [providers with no formal medical training]) had the greatest impact (14.1% reduction, 95% UR: 10.6%, 16.9%), but required >2,200 systems and reliable treatment referral. Improving referrals from informal providers for smear-based diagnosis in the public sector (without Xpert rollout) had substantially greater impact (6.3% reduction) than Xpert scale-up within the public sector. These findings are subject to substantial uncertainty regarding private-sector treatment patterns, patient care-seeking behavior, symptoms, and infectiousness over time; these uncertainties should be addressed by future research. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of new diagnostics for TB control in India depends on implementation within the complex, fragmented health-care system. Transformative strategies will require private/informal-sector engagement, adequate referral systems, improved treatment quality, and substantial resources. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Impact of organizational factors on adherence to laboratory testing protocols in adult HIV care in Lusaka, Zambia

Background Previous operational research studies have demonstrated the feasibility of large-scale public sector ART programs in resource-limited settings. However, organizational and structural determinants of quality of care have not been studied. Methods We estimate multivariate regression models using data from 13 urban HIV treatment facilities in Zambia to assess the impact of structural determinants on health workers’ adherence to national guidelines for conducting laboratory tests such as CD4, hemoglobin and liver function and WHO staging during initial and follow-up visits as part of Zambian HIV care and treatment program. Results CD4 tests were more routinely ordered during initial history and physical (IHP) than follow-up (FUP) visits (93.0 % vs. 85.5 %; p < 0.01). More physical space, higher staff turnover and greater facility experience with ART was associated with greater odds of conducting tests. Higher staff experience decreased the odds of conducting CD4 tests in FUP (OR 0.93; p < 0.05) and WHO staging in IHP visit (OR 0.90; p < 0.05) but increased the odds of conducting hemoglobin test in IHP visit (OR 1.05; p < 0.05). Higher staff burnout increased the odds of conducting CD4 test during FUP (OR 1.14; p < 0.05) but decreased the odds of conducting hemoglobin test in IHP visit (0.77; p < 0.05) and CD4 test in IHP visit (OR 0.78; p < 0.05). Conclusion Physical space plays an important role in ensuring high quality care in resource-limited setting. In the context of protocolized care, new staff members are likely to be more diligent in following the protocol verbatim rather than relying on memory and experience thereby improving adherence. Future studies should use prospective data to confirm the findings reported here

Introduction to the special issue : management science in the fight against Covid-19

At the time of writing of this Editorial in April 2021, Covid-19 continues to ravage our planet, with an official global death toll now exceeding three million, and a horrendous legacy of economic and human damage. The roll-out of vaccination has given hope that we will soon reach the end of this chapter of history. However, it will take years for the world to overcome this calamity and many individuals whose health or livelihoods have been destroyed will never fully recover. This failure of the world to effectively respond to the challenge of Covid-19 is all the more bitter because the outbreak of a novel pathogen was entirely predictable; the spread, preventable; and the suffering, avoidable. The experience of different countries around the world shows that the ability to plan, and to execute plans in a disciplined fashion, can make all the difference between relative security and catastrophe. The challenge for Management Scientists is to show that our discipline can have a role – a critical role – as a part of this planning. Epidemiological models of disease dynamics have been prominent through this crisis but do not fully capture the constraints in the health system and cannot directly support many of the management decisions which have to be made as part of the response. As Management Scientists, our perspective and our modelling tools have the potential to address those shortcomings; but if our profession cannot demonstrate our ability to add value, others will do so in our place

Centralized vs. Decentralized Ambulance Diversion: A Network Perspective

One of the most important operational challenges faced by emergency departments (EDs) in the United States is patient overcrowding. In periods of overcrowding, an ED can request the emergency medical services (EMS) agency to divert incoming ambulances to neighboring hospitals, a phenomenon known as "ambulance diversion." The EMS agency may accept this request provided that at least one of the neighboring EDs is not on diversion. From an operations perspective, properly executed ambulance diversion should result in resource pooling and reduce the overcrowding and delays in a network of EDs. Recent evidence indicates, however, that this potential benefit is not always realized. In this paper, we provide one potential explanation for this discrepancy and suggest potential remedies. Using a queueing game between two EDs that aim to minimize their own waiting time, we find that decentralized decisions regarding diversion explain the lack of pooling benefits. Specifically, we find the existence of a defensive equilibrium, wherein each ED does not accept diverted ambulances from the other ED. This defensiveness results in a depooling of the network and, subsequently, in delays that are significantly higher than when a social planner coordinates diversion. The social optimum is itself difficult to characterize analytically and has limited practical appeal because it depends on problem parameters such as arrival rates and length of stay. Instead, we identify an alternative solution that does not require the exact knowledge of the parameters and may be used by the EMS agencies to coordinate diversion decisions when defensive diversion is present. We show that this solution is approximately optimal for the social planner's problem. Moreover, it is Pareto improving over the defensive equilibrium whereas the social optimum, in general, might not be. This paper was accepted by Yossi Aviv, operations management.emergency department, ambulance diversion, game theory, queueing networks

Cournot Competition Under Yield Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Market

This paper is inspired by the recurring mismatch between demand and supply in the U.S. influenza vaccine market. Economic theory predicts that an oligopolistic market with unregulated but costly entry will experience excess entry and oversupply, not the undersupply observed in the market for influenza vaccine in recent years. In this paper, we examine the interaction between yield uncertainty, a key characteristic of many production processes, including that for influenza vaccine, and firms' strategic behavior. We find that yield uncertainty can contribute to a high degree of concentration in an industry and a reduction in the industry output and the expected consumer surplus in equilibrium. We use parameter values loosely based on the U.S. influenza vaccine market to numerically illustrate the impact of yield uncertainty.Cournot competition, influenza vaccine, yield uncertainty, market structure