Market Review of the Welsh Organic Arable Sector, 2007

The supply situation for Welsh organic arable production Organic production in Wales has been developing steadily in the last five years, with particular emphasis on organic cattle and sheep production. This was despite over-supply conditions in some sectors, notably dairy, following the very rapid growth in 1999/2000. The area of organic arable production has tracked this increase albeit at a lower level. It is also a more complex situation than might be thought because of the different ways in which a cereal crop or mixture might be harvested. This sector is one of the least surveyed in the UK with the exception of the annual Scottish Organic Market Link Producer Survey carried out by SAC with SEERAD funding. Between the end of 2002 and end of 2005, the number of holdings increased by 12% to 688, and the certified land area increased by 29% to 71 thousand hectares, of which more than 90% is grassland. Growth in Wales has exceeded other parts of the UK, reaching 5% of agricultural land by end 2005. More rapid growth is projected for 2006 and possibly 2007. The arable area reported to Defra shows an increase over the period 2003 to 2005 (reported as end of January 2004 to end of January 2006) from 1958 ha to 2358 ha. This represents a 20% increase over the period at a time when organic grassland of all types increased by 34%. The UK position for the supply and demand of organic cereals is giving considerable cause for concern at the present particularly in the area of organic livestock feed. This has been brought about by marked increases in organic milk, pork, egg and poultry sales along with continuing expansion of the red meat sectors. This has led to a considerable imbalance that is likely to get worse over the coming years, something that will be amplified by changes in the standards with respect to non organic feed allowances. It is estimated that the UK is around 60% self sufficient in home produced feed grain – the shortfall is made up of imports from around the world and a number of factors are threatening the security of supply from many of the exporting countries. The calculations involved are subject to a number of crude assumptions and there is universal agreement that there is an urgent need for information and regularly updated statistics. Actual output of Welsh arable producers is extremely difficult to quantify precisely because it is not monitored with the regularity and at the level of detail of other sectors. Two sets of figures are available but they are difficult to compare because one relates to areas planted while the other is concerned with outputs. A producer survey was undertaken using a detailed telephone questionnaire. This was not a simple exercise as it proved difficult to obtain information from certification bodies. This meant that it was difficult to identify advance those producers that were growing arable crops. 209 producers out of a total of 502 livestock producers were contacted, responses received from 102 (a response rate of just under 50%) and 40 of these were arable producers. This cohort represented 913 ha of arable production or 29.5% of the total organic arable area in Wales. 39% of the arable crops grown by respondents were planted as mixtures (usually a cereal/protein mix), a notable difference from earlier surveys. Of the pure stands wheat comprised the largest area followed by barley, oats, triticale and beans in descending order. 50% of the crops surveyed were harvested as whole crop and 47% as grain with a total yield of 1,458 tonnes. In the year under survey the highest proportion of a single crop harvested as whole crop was wheat while oats constituted the largest harvested grain crop, results that were somewhat at odds with other work but are almost certainly a result of what was a hot, dry season with low silage yields. Only 455t of grain was actually marketed with barley accounting for the highest proportion and wheat the lowest. Yields as reported by the farmers contacted tended to be on the low side with respect to standard figures in the Organic Farm Management Handbook although oats were slightly better. Triticale was particularly poor at around 50% of standard yields. The same cohort of respondents reported reduced areas for the 2007 season, an overall reduction of 21% on 2006 figures, and an anticipated reduction in grain to be marketed (16%). Producers reported that poor producer prices are a disincentive to growing grain for the market, a somewhat surprising conclusion given the recent strong movements in organic cereal prices. Transport costs are a significant factor as the crop has to be moved out of Wales to grain merchants and/or feed mills. Extrapolation of the above figures is recognised as a risky and imperfect process but it does raise a number of questions of concern not least the existence of a decline when overall conversion and livestock numbers are increasing This was followed by a trade survey that contacted both the grain trade and compound feed producers. The responses were not all encompassing but covered 75% of the active traders in numerical terms. The responses indicated that very small quantities of grain are supplied into Wales for processing – most grain traded moved to other producers within Wales. The vast majority of feed is imported in the form of compound feed and on the basis of the responses received totalled some 13,600 tonnes for the 2006 season. Allowing for non responses it is estimated that the actual figure was around 16,000 tonnes – 11,000 t for ruminants and 5,000 t as poultry rations. Feed compounders are working on the basis of demand increasing by around 20% year on year, partly as a result of changes to the standards. It is estimated that the demand for poultry feed will increase to 9,000 t in 2009 while ruminant feed is predicted to increase to 19,000 t in 2009, a total of 28,000t. It is suggested that the cereal and protein crop requirements will be in the order of 50% of the total i.e. 14,000 t each. There is a very low level of protein production in Wales and this demand will almost certainly be fulfilled through the use of imported sources of soya. A SWOT analysis was undertaken that concluded that there are more weaknesses than strengths but that there are a number of opportunities for increases arable production not least the strengthening of prices across the board. The area of most concern and seen as a serious threat is the reported 21% decrease in plantings for the current season. Recommendations Despite the generally positive outlook from a demand perspective, there is a need to address some of the factors that might discourage producers from converting, including disruption to the Organic Farming Scheme, price levels that do not always reflect the costs of production, access to markets and a distinct lack of support for the sector. To address this, there is a need for: • better statistical data on current and future production levels and market shares and a wider appreciation of the need for improved levels of self sufficiency; • greater publicity should be given to events and trends in the wider organic cereal market to ensure that Welsh organic livestock producers have all the facts when planning for the future; • a series of events, articles and other media coverage and special attention should be given to these issues in the Organic Market Wales e-bulletin; • enhanced payments through the OFS through a mechanism that replaces the previous AAPS rate; • the new Farming Connect service to focus on the potential for home grown feed when working with organic livestock producers; • an increasing focus on education in order to signpost opportunities for young people; • an evaluation of the potential for the establishment of an organic feed compounding operation in Wales – this could reduce costs and also provide market opportunities for arable producers; • improved production systems, supported by effective research and development and knowledge transfer; • parallel improvements in variety and mixture choices – this may involve new introductions, a re-evaluation of varieties deemed to have been out-classed and the development of landraces; • a clear identification of suitable areas for organic arable production along with guidance on what crops to grow in the particular soil types and prevailing climate • improved integration of effort between organic sector businesses and the agencies that support the development of the Welsh horticultural and organic sectors; • improved linkages with the dairy, arable and red meat sectors to benefit from complementarity relationships between the sectors at production, market development and promotional levels

Rapid Assembly of the Salvileucalin B Norcaradiene Core

Preparation of the polycyclic core of the cytotoxic natural product salvileucalin B is described. The key feature of this synthetic strategy is a copper-catalyzed intramolecular arene cyclopropanation to provide the central norcaradiene. These studies lay the foundation for continued investigations toward an enantioselective total synthesis of 1

Enantioselective Total Synthesis of (+)-Salvileucalin B

An enantioselective total synthesis of the diterpenoid natural product (+)-salvileucalin B is reported. Key findings include a copper-catalyzed arene cyclopropanation reaction to provide the unusual norcaradiene core and a reversible retro-Claisen rearrangement of a highly functionalized norcaradiene intermediate

Nausea and vomiting in pregnancy (NVP) is not just 'Morning Sickness' : data from a prospective cohort study

Background: Nausea and vomiting in pregnancy is usually called ‘morning sickness’. This is felt by sufferers to trivialise the condition. Symptoms have been described as occurring both before and after noon, but daily symptom patterns have not been clearly described and statistically modelled to enable the term ‘morning sickness’ to be accurately analysed. Aim: To describe the daily variation in nausea and vomiting symptoms during early pregnancy in a group of sufferers. Design and setting: A prospective cohort study of females recruited from 15 May 2014 to 17 February 2017 by Swiss Precision Diagnostics (SPD) Development Company Limited, which was researching hormone levels in early pregnancy and extended its study to include the description of pregnancy symptoms. Method: Daily symptom diaries of nausea and vomiting were kept by females who were trying to conceive. They also provided daily urine samples, which when analysed enabled the date of ovulation to be determined. Data from 256 females who conceived during the first month of the study are included in this article. Daily symptom patterns and changes in daily patterns by week of pregnancy were modelled. Functional data analysis was used to produce estimated symptom probability functions. Results: There was a peak probability of nausea in the morning, a lower but sustained probability of nausea throughout the day, and a slight peak in the evening. Vomiting had a defined peak incidence in the morning. Conclusion: Referring to nausea and vomiting in pregnancy as simply ‘morning sickness’ is inaccurate, simplistic, and therefore unhelpful

State Funded Marketing and Promotional Activities to Support a State's Winery Business; Are There Economic Returns?: A Case study using Texas Senate Bill 1370's support of the Texas Wine Industry

Texas wineries responded to a survey regarding their participation in wine marketing activities, annual changes in gross sales and level of sales growth they attribute to TDA’s support and if these funds create positive economic impacts to their winery. The response rate was 53 of the 93 registered wineries or a 57 percent response rate. Senate Bill 1370 funds allocate annually $725,000 to marketing and promotion of Texas wine. Combining the$725,000 and the normal funding of $250,000 identifies$975,000 in annual support to grow economic value. The most often utilized promotional activity is promotional materials and attending TDA supported wine events. Ninety-two percent of Texas wineries recognize an increase in awareness for the Texas wine industry and attribute 49 percent of the increase to state marketing efforts. A portion of TDA marketing funds were directed towards supporting wine events in Texas as they attract large numbers of consumers and allow promotional opportunities. One result found that 68 percent of consumers reported the event encouraged them to buy more Texas wine. Annual Economic Impact Results from supported marketing activities are estimated to create $8.42 per$1 of funding in direct sales increases, $15.33 per$1 of funding in economic impact of increases in sales and $1.54 per$1 of funding in value added impacts (based on IMPLAN Type II Economic Multiplier values). Annual Economic Impact Results from all funding activities are $2.16 per$1 of funding of total direct sales increases, $3.93 per$1 of funding in economic impacts of increases in sales and $.40 per$1 of funding in valued added impacts (based on IMPLAN Type II Economic Multiplier values). It is apparent that both direct and indirect economic results are positive returns to program funding and create economic growth in local economies.Texas Wine, Wine Economics, State Commodity Support, State Agricultural Marketing, State Commodity Marketing, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing,

Elm Farm Organic Research Centre December 2006

The Organic Research Centre. Elm Farm Research Centre Bulletin with Technical Updates from The Organic Advisory Service is a regular publication from The Organic Research Centre. The current issue covers: Report from 2006 Cirencester Conference; Quest for more home produced organic food; in a world where bread matters; Improving wheat with plenty of parents; Unlocking the secrets of the ancient (cereal varieties); Brain food- a good read; Not to late to protect the future: The organic role; Bumper Oat yields- Tradis trials top ten tonnes; Multiage flocks- a viable solution to wheigh variability; Letters

Effect of periodic backwash in the submerged membrane adsorption hybrid system

The submerged membrane adsorption hybrid system (SMAHS) is an attractive solution in treating wastewater; however it faces membrane fouling although to a less extent. In this study, different adsorbents and resins were investigated in order to find a substitute to the powdered activated carbon (PAC); The effect of new backflush was also studied in further reducing the membrane fouling. The SMAHS led to 72–86% dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal. A detailed study on the transmembrane pressure development led to a conclusion that there is a critical flux and this value is around 16 l/h.m2 for the wastewater studied

Rating Apathy in Huntington’s Disease: Patients and Companions Agree.

BACKGROUND: Apathy is a common feature of Huntington’s disease (HD), even from early disease. However, patients are believed to lack insight into their own apathy and therefore clinicians and/or companions are relied upon to estimate the extent of a patient’s apathy. In addition, the evolution of apathy over time in HD has not been unequivocally established. OBJECTIVEs: The purpose of this study was to determine whether HD patient’s self-rated apathy scores were consistent with the scores given by companions who were also asked to rate the patients apathy. Furthermore, the clinical correlates of apathy and its stability over time were examined for both self-rated and companion-rated scores. METHODs: Apathy was measured in a large cross-sectional population of HD patients ranging from early to late stage disease (n = 106) using the Apathy Evaluation Scale; a subgroup of whom were followed longitudinally (n = 62) on average 18.7 (1.2 SD) months later. Comparisons were made between self-rated and companion-rated apathy and the relationship between apathy and motor, cognitive and functional performance was explored. RESULTS: Analysis of the cross-sectional data revealed that self-rated and companion-rated apathy were highly correlated, establishing the validity of using self-rated instead of, or in combination with, companion-rated assessments of apathy in future studies. Both self-rated and companion-rated scores had a relationship with motor and functional impairment, but had a complex relationship with cognition. The results of the longitudinal comparison revealed that apathy did not change over time in this cohort.CONCLUSIONs: Apathy can be equally well assessed by either patients or companions and does not change significantly over an18 month period. These findings have implications in the design of studies looking at treating this important aspect of HD.The work included in this manuscript has been partially funded by financial support from the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and the Cambridge University NHS Foundation Trust.This is the accepted manuscript of a paper published in the Journal of Huntington's Disease (Mason S, Barker RA, Journal of Huntington's Disease 2015, 4, 49-59, doi:10.3233/JHD-140133). The final version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/JHD-14013

Progress in Huntington's disease: the search for markers of disease onset and progression.

Unlike most neurodegenerative disorders, individuals at risk from Huntington's disease can be identified prior to the onset of clinical signs of the disease by virtue of it being an autosomal dominant condition. This provides the hypothetical opportunity to delay disease onset and/or slow down the progression of the disease in the very early stages ahead of overt features of disease. To help prepare for therapeutic trials of disease-modifying compounds, extensive work has gone into (1) finding ways of better predicting the onset of disease in pre-manifest HD gene carriers (PMGC), (2) defining the extent of non-motor features of HD and (3) identifying robust and reliable tests by which to measure disease progression. In this short review, we summarise some of the major findings in this area of clinical research.The work included in this manuscript has been partially funded by financial support from the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and the Cambridge University NHS Foundation Trust.This is the accepted manuscript of an article published by Springer. The final version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00415-015-7700-0