Strategic Entry Deterrence and the Behavior of Pharmaceutical Incumbents Prior to Patent Expiration

This paper develops a new approach to testing for strategic entry deterrence and applies it to the behavior of pharmaceutical incumbents just before they lose patent protection. The approach involves looking at a cross-section of markets and examining whether behavior is nonmonotonic in the size of the market. Under certain conditions, investment levels will be monotone in market size if firms are not influenced by a desire to deter entry. Strategic investments, however, may be nonmonotone because entry deterrence is unnecessary in very small markets and impossible in very large ones, resulting in overall nonmonotonic investment. The pharmaceutical data contain advertising, product proliferation, and pricing information for a sample of drugs which lost patent protection between 1986 and 1992. Among the findings consistent with an entry deterrence motivation are that incumbents in markets of intermediate size have lower levels of advertising and are more likely to reduce advertising immediately prior to patent expiration.

Internet Retail Demand: Taxes, Geography, and Online-Offline Competition

Data on sales of memory modules are used to explore several aspects of e-retail demand. There is a strong relationship between e-retail sales to a given state and sales tax rates that apply to purchases from online retailers. This suggests that there is substantial substitution between online and online retail, and tax avoidance may be an important contributor to e-retail activity. Geography matters in two ways: we find some evidence that consumers prefer purchasing from firms in nearby states to benefit from faster shipping times as well as evidence of a separate preference for buying from in-state firms. Consumers appear fairly rational in some ways, but boundedly rational in others.

Search, Obfuscation, and Price Elasticities on the Internet

We examine the competition between a group of Internet retailers that operate in an environment where a price search engine plays a dominant role. We show that for some products in this environment, the easy price search makes demand tremendously price-sensitive. Retailers, though, engage in obfuscation---practices that frustrate consumer search or make it less damaging to firms---resulting in much less price sensitivity on other products. We discuss several models of obfuscation and examine its effects on demand and markups empirically. Observed markups are adequate to allow efficient online retailers to survive.

Coordinating on Lower Prices: Pharmaceutical Pricing Under Political Pressure

This paper investigates possible effects of political activity on pharmaceutical prices, focusing on the health care reform period. We characterize firms based on their vulnerability to future price regulation and find that the more vulnerable firms were more likely to take various actions to forestall regulation, most notably coordinating on a specific percentage price increase during 1993. Since moderating price increases could have been an effective tool to avert regulation, the coordination we observe is the obvious response of the industry to a classic collective action problem.

Pharmaceutical Prices and Political Activity

Drug prices have been a conspicuous political issue in much of recent history, but no more so than during health care reform debates in 1993 and 1994. This paper investigates possible effects of political activity on pharmaceutical prices, with a particular focus on the health care reform period. It evaluates the extent to which pharmaceutical companies slowed the rates at which they increased prices in an attempt to preempt government intervention. To do so, we characterize companies based on their vulnerability to future price regulation. We then consider patterns in price movements across companies. The results suggest that companies whose drugs had longer patent lives and who had recently increased contributions to their corporate Political Action Committees (PACs) slowed price increases during 1992 and 1994 more than their competitors. It is difficult to distinguish pricing differences across companies in 1993, perhaps because most companies had pledged to keep price increases below the rate of inflation.

Tax Sensitivity and Home State Preferences in Internet Purchasing

Data on memory modules sales are used to explore aspects of e-retail demand. Aggregate sales are examined in state-level regressions. Discrete choice techniques are used to examine (incomplete) hourly sales data from a price comparison site. We find a strong relationship between e-retail sales to a given state and sales tax rates that apply to purchases from offline retailers, suggesting substantial online-offline substitution and the importance of tax avoidance motives. Geography matters in two ways: consumers prefer purchasing from firms in nearby states and appear to have a separate preference for buying from in-state firms.Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (Stanford, Calif.)Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and PeaceInstitute for Advanced Study (Princeton, N.J.)Toulouse Network for Information TechnologyNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (SES-0219205)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (SES-0550897

An Empirical Study of Pricing Strategies in an Online Market with High Frequency Price Information

We study competition among a score of firms participating in an online market for a commodity-type memory module. Firms were able to adjust prices continuously; prices determined how the firms were ranked and listed (lowest price listed first), with better ranks contributing to firms’ sales. Using a year’s worth of hourly data, we document the pricing dynamics, cycles, and other patterns in this market. We then characterize empirically the factors which drive price changes, noting clear evidence of firm heterogeneity in the choice of pricing strategy. Finally, we develop a framework for simulating counterfactual market settings, using the simulations to examine counterfactuals involving different mixes of firms according to pricing strategies

A Simple Framework for Nonparametric Specification Testing

This paper presents a simple framework for testing the specification of parametric conditional means. The test statistics are based on quadratic forms in the residuals of the null model. Under general assumptions the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null. With an appropriate choice of the weight matrix, the tests are shown to be consistent and to have good local power. Specific implementations involving matrices of bin and kernel weights are discussed. Finite sample properties are explored in simulations and an application to some parametric models of gasoline demand is presented.

Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices: Empirical Strategies

This paper explores environments in which either the revelation or diffusion of information, or its incorporation into stock prices, is gradual, and develops appropriate estimation techniques. This paper has implications both for event study methodology and for understanding the process by which stock prices incorporate information. Two environments are highlighted. First, information is often not revealed in one announcement but rather through a process of gradual public revelation, which may not be completely observable by a researcher. We examine the effect of the evolution of the Clinton health care reform proposal on pharmaceutical stock prices. We estimate the expected path of market-adjusted pharmaceutical prices over September 1992- October 1993 by isotonic regression, and find that the major portion of the decline in stock prices occurred gradually, and did not correspond to identified news events. Second, the trading process itself may incorporate private information into stock prices gradually. That is an implication of the Kyle (1985) model, in which one or a small number of informed traders use their market power over their private information to maximize profits dynamically. We use the functional form predictions from Kyle in our estimation, and the results from a sample of targets of tender offers are consistent with the model.