Hirschman’s view of development, or the art of trespassing and self-subversion

This article analyses the work of Albert Hirschman from the standpoint of two basic concepts: trespassing and self-subversion. Hirschman turned these exercises into an art, pleading his case in a manner which combines curiosity and intellectual humility. In a world accustomed to think and think of itself through totalizing models, in a continent where so many ideological models which sought to open up (or rather, force open) the realities of countries were put together and taken apart, Hirschman’s works and intellectual attitude represent a healthy and beneficial invitation to take a different view. This is not his only merit, however. From Chile to Brazil, from Mexico to Argentina, he passed on his passion for the possible to more than a few admirers. In the last few years, a great many ministers, academics and leading members of international organizations have repeatedly praised his contributions. Likewise, many of the concepts developed by Hirschman –his “exit, voice and loyalty” triptych, the notion of the “tunnel effect”– and above all his propensity to think in terms of the possible and his efforts to trespass over and subvert theories (including his own), paradigms and models, and all the cubist and minimalist mental exercises that are constantly created and recreated, are healthy sources of inspiration and interpretation for rethinking the never-ending quest for development. Lastly, notions like community participation or social capital, which are now major subjects of discussion, can also be better appreciated, subverted and self-subverted in the light of Hirschman’s work.Trespassing;self-subversion;Chile;Mexico;Brazil;Argentina

Crushed Aid: Fragmentation in Sectoral Aid

This paper measures and compares fragmentation in aid sectors. Past studies focused on aggregate country data but a sector analysis provides a better picture of fragmentation. We start by counting the number of aid projects in the developing world and find that, in 2007, more than 90 000 projects were running simultaneously. Project proliferation is on a steep upward trend and will certainly be reinforced by the emergence of new donors. Developing countries with the largest numbers of aid projects have more than 2 000 in a single year. In parallel to this boom of aid projects, there has been a major shift towards social sectors and, as a consequence, these are the most fragmented. We quantify fragmentation in each aid sector for donors and recipients and identify which exhibit the highest fragmentation. While fragmentation is usually seen as an issue when it is excessive, we also show that some countries suffer from too little fragmentation. An original contribution of this paper is to develop a monopoly index that identifies countries where a donor enjoys monopoly power. Finally, we characterise countries with high fragmentation levels. Countries that are poor, democratic and have a large population get more fragmented aid. However, this is only because poor and democratic countries attract more donors. Once we control for the number of donors in a country-sector, democratic countries do not appear different from non-democratic ones in any sector and poor countries actually have a slightly less fragmented aid allocation.Aid; Fragmentation

Herding in Aid Allocation

Although there exists a vast literature on aid efficiency (the effect of aid on GDP), and that aid allocation determinants have been estimated, little is known about the minute details of aid allocation. This article investigates empirically a claim repeatedly made in the past that aid donors herd. Building upon a methodology applied to financial markets, this article finds that aid donors herd similarly to portfolio funds on financial markets. It also estimates the causes of herding and finds that political transitions towards more autocratic regimes repel donors, but that transitions towards democracy have no effect. Finally, identified causes of herding explain little of its overall level, suggesting strategic motives play an important role.aid; herding; volatility; fragmentation

Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators

Accurately evaluating country risk and assessing the quality of governance in emerging market economies has become a priority of international corporations, investment banks and multilateral financial institutions. The rating system of the Political Risk Services (PRS) Group, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), constitutes one of the most influential time-series databases of country risk analysis. This study assesses the accuracy and predictive powers of the ICRG model, evaluating its ability to discern trends and highlight structural vulnerabilities, and thus to warn of impending crises. Three major crises are examined: the Brazilian financial crisis of 1999, the Argentine economic meltdown in December 2001 and the Peruvian political crisis of 2000. The study finds mixed results, which have important implications for research and policy.

Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies

This article focuses on the interactions between politics and financial markets in emerging economies. More precisely, it examines how Wall Street reacts to major Latin American political events. The case study focuses on the 2002 Brazilian presidential elections. The first section of the article provides a critical review of the available literature. The second section presents an empirical study of Wall Street analysts’ perceptions of the 2002 presidential elections in Brazil, based on reports produced by leading Wall Street investment firms. The final section uses polling and financial data from previous Brazilian elections to place the events of 2002 in comparative historical perspective.Emerging economies;Financial markets;International political economy;Latin America

Banking on Democracy: The Political Economy of International Private Bank Lending in Emerging Markets

Clearly, a new agenda is emerging for private international banks. Political issues such as human rights seem to be a current concern. But what about democracy? What about political regimes? Are they taken into account by private banks when they decide whether to invest in a country? Put another way, do private banks have democratic political preferences? In this article, we focus on cross-border lending from international bank(er)s. The questions asked are as follows. Do bank(er)s react positively (that is by increasing their lending) when an emerging democracy appears? Do we witness increased bank lending after democratic transitions? Lastly, is there any relation between democratic consolidation and bank lending?Banks;Capital flows;Democracy;Emerging markets

Nano-structured polymer-glass hybrid coatings

The increased attention received by polymer nanocomposites in recent years, has opened the way to research on nanostructured glass polymer hybrids for coating applications. Using polyamide 11 and adding fillers (in this case glass) at the nanometre length scale can lead to innovative modifications to the polymer matrix, giving rise to new structures and properties. This could develop new materials with enhanced properties and may enlarge the coating market to other application areas. Some of the main obstacles to overcome are the control of glass particle size to obtain suitable dispersions on the nanoscale with interaction between components. Nanoscale structures require the development of optimal hybrid precursors. Finding a way to develop the hybrids using melt compounding methods like extrusion, particle size processes and coating techniques have been investigated in this research. The nanostructured hybrids are made using macroscopic fillers, which avoids problems with current regulations on ultra-fine particles. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Raman spectroscopy indicate the glass structure during synthesis of tin fluoride phosphate glass was pyrophosphate, mainly built up from phosphate tetrahedral units with one bridging oxygens present within a particular phosphate tetrahedron Qଵ end groups with a low concentration of phosphate tetrahedral units with two bridging oxygens Qଶ polymeric chains. However, sub-optimal melting produced significantly higher concentrations of phosphate tetrahedral units with no bridging oxygens present within a particular phosphate tetrahedron Q଴ orthophosphate structural units. The variations in NH and P − OH vibrations in the spectra revealed that a critical time and temperature of melting were necessary for the conversion of NHସHଶPOସ to produce sufficient PଶOହ for glass forming. During melting, PଶOହ and SnFଶ formed a low-temperature melt, which facilitated melting of the SnO and promoted the formation of a more stable glass structure. The fluorine breaks the P − O − P bonds and induces depolymerisation. The density of the glass reached a maximum at 450 °C for 25 min driven by the need for conversion of NHସHଶPOସ to PଶOହ and miscibility of SnO in the melt. Inadequate melting times and temperatures gave low glass transition temperature (Tg) values because of weak F − Sn and F − P linkages. Glass stability improved with melting due to increased PଶOହ and SnO miscibility enabling stronger Sn − O − P linkages. The results show that melting conditions during synthesis strongly influence critical glass properties and also provide an understanding of optimum processing necessary for future industrial scale-up. Novel hybrids of tin fluoride phosphate (TFP) glass (composition of 50% SnFଶ + 20% SnO + 30% PଶOହ) were synthesized with polyamide 11 and their morphology and mechanical properties investigated. Hybridization was achieved by melt blending up to 25 vol% of glass using different compounding conditions (temperature, screw speed and residence time). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed that the morphology was greatly influenced by the extrusion processing temperature and the glass content. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) studies revealed nanoparticles of 40 nm in size and suggested good compatibility. In order to determine the existence of miscibility between hybrid components, measurement of the loss tangent using a Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA), was carried out. The presence of two transition peaks in the hybrid containing 34 vol% tin fluoride phosphate glass implied an immiscible system showing heterogeneously distributed regions of very different molecular mobilities. Contrary to the plasticizer effect reported in the literature for some polyamide 6 - TFP glass hybrids, the measurements of mechanical properties by DMA showed a reinforcement effect of glass in the polymer. This was reflected by the increase of storage modulus (Εᇱ) at low and high temperatures in hybrids containing 13, 18 and 25 vol% tin fluoride phosphate glasses, achieving the highest modulus at 25 vol%. Tensile testing revealed a pronounced reduction in ductility for high glass contents. Finally, the first TFP- PA11 hybrid coating was developed with enhanced fire resistance and adhesion to the metal. Hardness and abrasion tests using different glass Tgs showed an influence of the glass Tg on the final coating application

La emergencia de las multilatinas

Incluye BibliografíaEl mundo empresarial cambió notablemente en los últimosdiez años. Han surgido nuevas empresas multinacionales en países demercados emergentes como Brasil, India, China, Sudáfrica y México,los que no solo son grandes receptores de capital extranjero sino queahora también invierten fuertemente en el exterior. En la notable historiade las nuevas multinacionales destaca la aparición de empresas quellamaremos multinacionales latinas (o multilatinas);, en particular deMéxico y Brasil, que tuvieron como precedente aquellas de España enlos años 1990. Las multilatinas surgieron merced a los clásicos factoresde expulsión y atracción (push and pull);. Pero en la última décadafueron impulsadas por la baja del costo del capital, que está activandoel salto desde las ventas en el exterior a las adquisiciones en el exterior,fenómeno que es materia del presente artículo