6 research outputs found
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Scientific understanding of East African climate change from the HyCRISTAL project
Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa (HyCRISTAL) is a Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) project funded to deliver new understanding of East African climate change and its impacts, and to demonstrate use of climate change information in long-term decision-making in the region. Here, we briefly summarise key findings from HyCRISTAL so far on climate change, as well as key findings from the pan-African FCFA project “IMPALA” relevant to East Africa, both in the context of previous literature on the topic
Recommended from our members
Scientific understanding of East African climate change from the HyCRISTAL project
Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa (HyCRISTAL) is a Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) project funded to deliver new understanding of East African climate change and its impacts, and to demonstrate use of climate change information in long-term decision-making in the region. Here, we briefly summarise key findings from HyCRISTAL so far on climate change, as well as key findings from the pan-African FCFA project “IMPALA” relevant to East Africa, both in the context of previous literature on the topic
Tanzania CMIP5 climate change projections
This paper presents updated climate change projections for Tanzania based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) using Mid-Century Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. A total of twenty global circulation models (GCMs) were downscaled based on the eleven Tanzania climatological zones using thirteen synoptic weather stations. For each climatological zone, the skill score test of the 20 GCMs was done against the observed rainfall and the threshold of 80% except for one zone, which used threshold of 75%, to select GCMs for projecting future rainfall and temperature. It was found that in all the climatological zones the number of GCMs which performed above the threshold ranged between five and twelve. Rainfall and temperature of skilled GCMs were then down-scaled by Delta method and then evaluated for uncertainty. The skill score test showed that climatological zones in the western part of Tanzania had higher skills and higher agreement compared to zones located in the eastern side. Stations in the bimodal rainfall zones such as Musoma and Same showed high level of uncertainty in the projected future rainfall and temperature. Temperature uncertainty was ± 0.4oC for Same, Musoma and Dodoma stations followed by Songea and Mbeya at ± 0.3oC. On average, temperature was projected to increase by about 0.9oC and also rainfall to increase but mainly in the month of April in the central and southern zones.Available in the Proceedings of the International Conference on Reducing Climate Change Challenges through Forestry and Other Land Use Practices. Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (CCIAM) Programme.Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (CCIAM) Programme funded through the Norwegian embassy in Tanzani
Tanzania CMIP5 Climate Change Projections
Proceedings of the International Conference on Reducing Climate Change Challenges through Forestry and Other Land Use PracticesThis paper presents updated climate change projections for Tanzania based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) using Mid-Century Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. A total of twenty global circulation models (GCMs) were downscaled based on the eleven Tanzania climatological zones using thirteen synoptic weather stations. For each climatological zone, the skill score test of the 20 GCMs was done against the observed rainfall and the threshold of 80% except for one zone, which used threshold of 75%, to select GCMs for projecting future rainfall and temperature. It was found that in all the climatological zones the number of GCMs which performed above the threshold ranged between five and twelve. Rainfall and temperature of skilled GCMs were then downscaled by Delta method and then evaluated for uncertainty. The skill score test showed that climatological zones in the western part of Tanzania had higher skills and higher agreement compared to zones located in the eastern side. Stations in the bimodal rainfall zones such as Musoma and Same showed high level of uncertainty in the projected future rainfall and temperature. Temperature uncertainty was ± 0.4oC for Same, Musoma and Dodoma stations followed by Songea and Mbeya at ± 0.3oC. On average, temperature was projected to increase by about 0.9oC and also rainfall to increase but mainly in the month of April in the central and southern zones
Tanzania CMIP5 Climate Change Projections
Proceedings of the International Conference on Reducing Climate Change Challenges through Forestry and Other Land Use PracticesThis paper presents updated climate change projections for Tanzania based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) using Mid-Century Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. A total of twenty global circulation models (GCMs) were downscaled based on the eleven Tanzania climatological zones using thirteen synoptic weather stations. For each climatological zone, the skill score test of the 20 GCMs was done against the observed rainfall and the threshold of 80% except for one zone, which used threshold of 75%, to select GCMs for projecting future rainfall and temperature. It was found that in all the climatological zones the number of GCMs which performed above the threshold ranged between five and twelve. Rainfall and temperature of skilled GCMs were then downscaled by Delta method and then evaluated for uncertainty. The skill score test showed that climatological zones in the western part of Tanzania had higher skills and higher agreement compared to zones located in the eastern side. Stations in the bimodal rainfall zones such as Musoma and Same showed high level of uncertainty in the projected future rainfall and temperature. Temperature uncertainty was ± 0.4oC for Same, Musoma and Dodoma stations followed by Songea and Mbeya at ± 0.3oC. On average, temperature was projected to increase by about 0.9oC and also rainfall to increase but mainly in the month of April in the central and southern zones
Integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture: the case study of the Wami River Sub-basin, Tanzania
A Book chapter, Climate Variability and Change in Africa, Sustainable
Development Goals Series, 115-136 pp.This study evaluates the impacts of climate
change and an adaptation strategy on agricul-
ture in the Wami River sub-basin in Tanzania.
This study uses the Agricultural Model
Improvement and Inter-comparison Project
(AgMIP) framework that integrates climate,
crops and economic models and data using a
novel multi-model approach for impact assess-
ment of agricultural systems under current and future conditions. This study uses five Global
Circulation Models (GCMs) from the fifth
phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison
Project (CMIP5), two crop simulation models,
and one economic impact assessment model. In
this study, a representative agricultural path-
ways (RAP) that characterises future condi-
tions following ‘business-as-usual’ trends was
developed and used to model future agricul-
tural systems in the Wami River sub-basin.
Results show that by mid-century, the maxi-
mum and minimum temperatures will increase
by 1.8–4.1 °C and 1.4–4.6 °C, respectively.
Rainfall is predicted to be variable with some
places projected to increase by 12%, while in
other areas it is projected to decrease by 14–
28%. Maize yields under these conditions are
projected to decrease by 5.3–40.7%. Results
show that under current conditions, 50–60% of
farm households are vulnerable to losses due to
climate change. The impacts of climate change
on poverty and per capita income are also
projected to be negative. Under the current
production system, poverty rates were pro-
jected to increase by 0.8–15.3% and per-capita
income to drop by 1.3–7.5%. Future
socio-economic conditions and prices offset
the negative impacts of climate change. Under
future conditions, the proportion of households
vulnerable to loss is estimated to range from 25
to 50%. Per-capita income and poverty rates are
expected to improve under the future climate
change conditions. Poverty rates would
decrease between 1.9 and 11.2% and income
per-capita would increase between 2.6 and
18.5%. The proposed future adaptation pack-
age will further improve household liveli-
hoods. This integrated assessment of climate
change projections using the improved meth-
ods and tools developed by AgMIP has con-
tributed to a better understanding of climate
change and adaptation impacts in a holistic
manner