Appropriateness of clinical severity classification of new WHO childhood pneumonia guidance : a multi-hospital, retrospective, cohort study

Background: Management of pneumonia in many low-income and middle-income countries is based on WHO guidelines that classify children according to clinical signs that define thresholds of risk. We aimed to establish whether some children categorised as eligible for outpatient treatment might have a risk of death warranting their treatment in hospital. Methods: We did a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2–59 months admitted to one of 14 hospitals in Kenya with pneumonia between March 1, 2014, and Feb 29, 2016, before revised WHO pneumonia guidelines were adopted in the country. We modelled associations with inpatient mortality using logistic regression and calculated absolute risks of mortality for presenting clinical features among children who would, as part of revised WHO pneumonia guidelines, be eligible for outpatient treatment (non-severe pneumonia). Findings: We assessed 16 162 children who were admitted to hospital in this period. 832 (5%) of 16 031 children died. Among groups defined according to new WHO guidelines, 321 (3%) of 11 788 patients with non-severe pneumonia died compared with 488 (14%) of 3434 patients with severe pneumonia. Three characteristics were strongly associated with death of children retrospectively classified as having non-severe pneumonia: severe pallor (adjusted risk ratio 5·9, 95% CI 5·1–6·8), mild to moderate pallor (3·4, 3·0–3·8), and weight-for-age Z score (WAZ) less than −3 SD (3·8, 3·4–4·3). Additional factors that were independently associated with death were: WAZ less than −2 to −3 SD, age younger than 12 months, lower chest wall indrawing, respiratory rate of 70 breaths per min or more, female sex, admission to hospital in a malaria endemic region, moderate dehydration, and an axillary temperature of 39°C or more. Interpretation: In settings of high mortality, WAZ less than −3 SD or any degree of pallor among children with non-severe pneumonia was associated with a clinically important risk of death. Our data suggest that admission to hospital should not be denied to children with these signs and we urge clinicians to consider these risk factors in addition to WHO criteria in their decision making

Oral amoxicillin versus benzyl penicillin for severe pneumonia among kenyan children: a pragmatic randomized controlled noninferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: There are concerns that the evidence from studies showing noninferiority of oral amoxicillin to benzyl penicillin for severe pneumonia may not be generalizable to high-mortality settings. METHODS: An open-label, multicenter, randomized controlled noninferiority trial was conducted at 6 Kenyan hospitals. Eligible children aged 2-59 months were randomized to receive amoxicillin or benzyl penicillin and followed up for the primary outcome of treatment failure at 48 hours. A noninferiority margin of risk difference between amoxicillin and benzyl penicillin groups was prespecified at 7%. RESULTS: We recruited 527 children, including 302 (57.3%) with comorbidity. Treatment failure was observed in 20 of 260 (7.7%) and 21 of 261 (8.0%) of patients in the amoxicillin and benzyl penicillin arms, respectively (risk difference, -0.3% [95% confidence interval, -5.0% to 4.3%]) in per-protocol analyses. These findings were supported by the results of intention-to-treat analyses. Treatment failure by day 5 postenrollment was 11.4% and 11.0% and rising to 13.5% and 16.8% by day 14 in the amoxicillin vs benzyl penicillin groups, respectively. The most frequent cause of cumulative treatment failure at day 14 was clinical deterioration within 48 hours of enrollment (33/59 [55.9%]). Four patients died (overall mortality 0.8%) during the study, 3 of whom were allocated to the benzyl penicillin group. The presence of wheeze was independently associated with less frequent treatment failure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm noninferiority of amoxicillin to benzyl penicillin, provide estimates of risk of treatment failure in Kenya, and offer important additional evidence for policy making in sub-Saharan Africa. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01399723