Cluster-Robust Variance Estimation for Dyadic Data

Dyadic data are common in the social sciences, although inference for such settings involves accounting for a complex clustering structure. Many analyses in the social sciences fail to account for the fact that multiple dyads share a member, and that errors are thus likely correlated across these dyads. We propose a nonparametric sandwich-type robust variance estimator for linear regression to account for such clustering in dyadic data. We enumerate conditions for estimator consistency. We also extend our results to repeated and weighted observations, including directed dyads and longitudinal data, and provide an implementation for generalized linear models such as logistic regression. We examine empirical performance with simulations and applications to international relations and speed dating

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented

Trajectory computation during a maneuver: Thrust estimation with the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS)

Existing thrust modeling capabilities of the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) have been enhanced to allow calibration of the onboard propulsion system. These enhancements provide one or more thrust scale factors, based on estimation using the batch least-squares technique, for the case of along-track thrust and the case of attitude-dependent thrust. The enhancements are evaluated using simulated tracking measurements for a test spacecraft and using actual tracking measurements for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS). The effects of tracking measurement noise and distribution on the accuracy of the estimation are investigated and found to be significant. Results and conclusions of the analysis are presented

Preliminary Orbit Determination System (PODS) for Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-tracked target Spacecraft using the homotopy continuation method

The Preliminary Orbit Determination System (PODS) provides early orbit determination capability in the Trajectory Computation and Orbital Products System (TCOPS) for a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-tracked spacecraft. PODS computes a set of orbit states from an a priori estimate and six tracking measurements, consisting of any combination of TDRSS range and Doppler tracking measurements. PODS uses the homotopy continuation method to solve a set of nonlinear equations, and it is particularly effective for the case when the a priori estimate is not well known. Since range and Doppler measurements produce multiple states in PODS, a screening technique selects the desired state. PODS is executed in the TCOPS environment and can directly access all operational data sets. At the completion of the preliminary orbit determination, the PODS-generated state, along with additional tracking measurements, can be directly input to the differential correction (DC) process to generate an improved state. To validate the computational and operational capabilities of PODS, tests were performed using simulated TDRSS tracking measurements for the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite and using real TDRSS measurements for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) spacecraft. The effects of various measurement combinations, varying arc lengths, and levels of degradation of the a priori state vector on the PODS solutions were considered

A comparison of reflector antenna designs for wide-angle scanning

Conventional reflector antennas are typically designed for up to + or - 20 beamwidths scan. An attempt was made to stretch this scan range to some + or - 300 beamwidths. Six single and dual reflector antennas were compared. It is found that a symmetrical parabolic reflector with f/D = 2 and a single circular waveguide feed has the minimum scan loss (only 0.6 dB at Theta sub 0 = 8 deg, or a 114 beamwidths scan). The scan is achieved by tilting the parabolic reflector by an angle equal to the half-scan angle. The f/D may be shortened if a cluster 7 to 19 elements instead of one element is used for the feed. The cluster excitation is adjusted for each new beam scan direction to compensate for the imperfect field distribution over the reflector aperture. The antenna can be folded into a Cassegrain configuration except that, due to spillover and blockage considerations, the amount of folding achievable is small

Flight dynamics facility operational orbit determination support for the ocean topography experiment

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/POSEIDON) mission is designed to determine the topography of the Earth's sea surface across a 3 yr period, beginning with launch in June 1992. The Goddard Space Flight Center Dynamics Facility has the capability to operationally receive and process Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) tracking data. Because these data will be used to support orbit determination (OD) aspects of the TOPEX mission, the Dynamics Facility was designated to perform TOPEX operational OD. The scientific data require stringent OD accuracy in navigating the TOPEX spacecraft. The OD accuracy requirements fall into two categories: (1) on orbit free flight; and (2) maneuver. The maneuver OD accuracy requirements are of two types; premaneuver planning and postmaneuver evaluation. Analysis using the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) covariance software has shown that, during the first postlaunch mission phase of the TOPEX mission, some postmaneuver evaluation OD accuracy requirements cannot be met. ODEAS results also show that the most difficult requirements to meet are those that determine the change in the components of velocity for postmaneuver evaluation

Automation of orbit determination functions for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-supported satellite missions

The Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) provides spacecraft trajectory determination for a wide variety of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-supported satellite missions, using the Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) and Ground Spaceflight and Tracking Data Network (GSTDN). To take advantage of computerized decision making processes that can be used in spacecraft navigation, the Orbit Determination Automation System (ODAS) was designed, developed, and implemented as a prototype system to automate orbit determination (OD) and orbit quality assurance (QA) functions performed by orbit operations. Based on a machine-resident generic schedule and predetermined mission-dependent QA criteria, ODAS autonomously activates an interface with the existing trajectory determination system using a batch least-squares differential correction algorithm to perform the basic OD functions. The computational parameters determined during the OD are processed to make computerized decisions regarding QA, and a controlled recovery process isactivated when the criteria are not satisfied. The complete cycle is autonomous and continuous. ODAS was extensively tested for performance under conditions resembling actual operational conditions and found to be effective and reliable for extended autonomous OD. Details of the system structure and function are discussed, and test results are presented

Evaluation of advanced geopotential models for operational orbit determination

To meet future orbit determination accuracy requirements for different NASA projects, analyses are performed using Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) tracking measurements and orbit determination improvements in areas such as the modeling of the Earth's gravitational field. Current operational requirements are satisfied using the Goddard Earth Model-9 (GEM-9) geopotential model with the harmonic expansion truncated at order and degree 21 (21-by-21). This study evaluates the performance of 36-by-36 geopotential models, such as the GEM-10B and Preliminary Goddard Solution-3117 (PGS-3117) models. The Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and LANDSAT-5 are the spacecraft considered in this study

Design-Based Inference for Spatial Experiments with Interference

We consider design-based causal inference in settings where randomized treatments have effects that bleed out into space in complex ways that overlap and in violation of the standard "no interference" assumption for many causal inference methods. We define a spatial "average marginalized response," which characterizes how, in expectation, units of observation that are a specified distance from an intervention point are affected by treatments at that point, averaging over effects emanating from other intervention points. We establish conditions for non-parametric identification, asymptotic distributions of estimators, and recovery of structural effects. We propose methods for both sample-theoretic and permutation-based inference. We provide illustrations using randomized field experiments on forest conservation and health