Investigating the Impact of Carbon Tax to Power Generation in Java-Bali System by Applying Optimization Technique

Java-Bali power system dominates the national installed capacity and will contribute to about 76% of the national CO2 emissions from the electricity sector in the future. Thus, minimizing CO2 emission from the Java-Bali system can help Indonesia to reduce the national CO2 emissions level. We apply optimization approach to investigate this problem by including carbon tax into the cost function. We analyzed data based on electricity generating system in 2008. In general the optimization showed that diesel and gas turbine is not needed in the power plant system. Further, the simulation showed that if Indonesia adopted carbon tax by US$56/ton CO2 - USD 86/tCO2; it will lead to three major changing. First, carbon tax will increase the cost of power plant or equivalently increase tax revenue to about 2.1$ 50/tCO2. There are some weaknesses from this study such as not use strong assumption for availability factor and generating costs. This study proposed that government needs to optimize utilization of combine cycle power plan to offset steam power and implement carbon tax above US$ 50/ ton CO2, to reduce CO2 emissions significantly.Power generation, Carbon tax, Optimization

インドネシアにおける電力システム拡充計画策定のための数理モデル分析

公共政策プログラム / Public Policy Program政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies論文審査委員: 大山 達雄（主査）, 諸星 穂積, Roberto Leon-Gonzalez, 土谷 隆, 伏見 正則（東京大学

The Pathway to ASEAN Energy Market Integration

Global experience in regional energy market integration presents broad elements of integration, i.e., binding agreements, physical infrastructure, standardized or harmonized rules of operation, and governing or coordinating institutions. The pathway to ASEAN Energy Market Integration (AEMI) will also involve creating these elements; however, this activity must be preceded by trust-building activities among ASEAN members. Trust should be built by candidly disclosing mutual gains from, and shared costs and externalities in energy resource development, trading energy products, market adjustments, and regulatory reforms. Shared databases and assessments could allow ASEAN members to formulate the building blocks of an AEMI regional accord. ASEAN leaders could then forge a regional accord for AEMI through 2030 with actionable targets and timetables.The targets could include establishing or strengthening institutions for facilitating integration efforts, removing border and behind-the-border barriers to energy trade and investments, harmonizing rules and standards, and building the physical infrastructure for regional energy trading. Since energy market integration takes place not only at the government level but also at the private sector level, ASEAN members must base their preparedness to join AEMI on the business case for integration rather than merely on the availability of energy resources. Moreover, at the minimum, ASEAN members should have independent energy regulators and pursue harmonization of rules and standards

Energy Market Integration and Energy Poverty in ASEAN

Based on available statistics, between 127 and 130 million people in Southeast Asia lack access to electricity. At least 228 million still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and lack access to clean and modern cooking facilities, with dire consequences for their quality of life and human development. Discussions for an integrated Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) energy market cannot overlook this energy poverty situation in the region. In fact, the overall goal of ASEAN Energy Market Integration (AEMI) to achieve balanced and equitable economic growth and development for all countries in the region cannot be realized while people continue to suffer from energy poverty. This study maps the energy poverty situation in the region, and reviews the links between energy access and economic and human development. It also draws a connection between AEMI and the eradication of energy poverty, or attaining universal energy access, in terms of benefits and strategies, particularly with regard to mapping investment requirements and taking inventory of financing options. The study concludes with some recommendations for near-term actions

MENINGKATKAN DAYA SAING PEREKONOMIAN NASIONAL: PELAJARAN DARI INDUSTRI TERPILIH

This paper aims to analyze the condition of Indonesian comparative advantage, based on internal and external factors analysis. Based on selected industries namely synthetic fiber, pulp and paper, travel goods and photographic and field research from five provinces, there are some lessons need to be done by government. There are three major findings from this study. First, there is no improvement in competitiveness without increasing value added and productivity. Second, high local content will help the industries to gain competitiveness. Third, currently, contribution of total factor productivity and labor productivity are quite low for enhancing competitiveness. The study suggests government needs to develop up stream industries for supporting downstream industries. Further, promoting good and clean governance need to be part of microeconomic reform

Middle Class and Democracy: An Assessment on the 2014 Indonesian’s Presidential Election

This paper aims to assess the role of middle class in Indonesia’s democracy, with the particular focus of the last Indonesian Presidential election. This study uses econometric analyses to assess preferences of middle class in presidential election by exploring data at district/city and provincial. The main finding in this study strongly suggests that religious and personality are still important elements under the race of Indonesia president. This study also found that different group of middle class has different attitudes in selecting the presidential candidate and the upper group of middle class is more likely to select Joko Widodo. Finally, a fragile middle class and a relatively high number of abstainers could be a barrier toward more substantive democracy. Abstrak Makalah ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran kelompok kelas menengah dalam proses demokrasi di Indonesia, secara khusus peran mereka difokuskan pada hasil pemilihan presiden yang terakhir. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrik untuk mengalisis preferensi kelompok kelas menengah dalam memilih calon presiden, dengan melakukan eksplorasi data pada tingkat kabupaten/kota dan provinsi. Hasil studi menunjukkan, agama dan personalitas calon presiden menjadi faktor penting dalam pertarungan pemilihan presiden. Studi ini juga menunjukkan, berbagai kelompok dalam kelas menengah memiliki preferensi yang berbeda dalam memilih kandidat presiden dan kelompok kelas menengah atas cenderung memilih Joko Widodo. Akhirnya, kelas menengah yang rentan dan tingginya kelompok yang abstain, akan menjadi hambatan untuk menuju demokrasi yang lebih substantif. Kata kunci: Kelas Menengah; Demokrasi; Pemilihan Presiden; Indonesia JEL classifications: A12; C3

Rural Electrification Program in Indonesia: Comparing SEHEN and SHS Program

In 2014, the Indonesian government has targets to obtain 80% of electrification ratio and 98.9% of rural electrification ratio. Extending the grid and off-grid connection has been done to obtain the targets. This paper aims to compare two main programs on rural electrification namely Super Extra Energy Saving (Super Ekstra Hemat Energi, SEHEN) that is belong to PLN (state owned company in electricity) and the Solar Home System (SHS) that is financed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR). Indonesia has started the rural electrification program in the late 1950s, but how to provide electricity in a sustainable ways both organizationally and institutionally still become a big challenge. The experiences from East Nusa Tenggara provinces showed that both SEHEN and SHS can instantly improve electrification ratio, but government needs to synchronize the technical, administrative, and financial aspect from the two programs. Without any improvements in designing the program, we argue that the existing program is not sustainable

Indonesia’s Dynamic Electricity Power Sector: Investigating Need and Supply Performance

This paper analyzes the development and problems of electricity sector in Indonesia. After the economic crisis of 1997/98, investment in power sector has been decreasing. Minimizing transmission and distribution loss can increase reliability and quality of power supply, improve financial capacity, and reduce electricity subsidy. Electrification ratio and electric power consumption per capita need to be improved equally among provinces. Promoting public private partnership (PPP) can boost investment. Main policy challenges need to be addressed are that government needs to (1) provide information on the investment prospects; (2) solve social aspect of the project; and (3) provide practical guide in land acquisition

Filtering strategic coupling: territorial intermediaries in oil and gas global production networks in Southeast Asia

The Global Production Network (GPN) approach has not yet considered the importance of territorial intermediaries for strategic coupling. This article demonstrates how the prospects of strategic coupling for the case of Vietnam and Indonesia with the oil and gas GPN are affected by the gateway role of Singapore. Based on interviews, the analysis reveals how Singapore influences regional economic development along the GPN through different filtering mechanisms, limiting the potential for strategic coupling for Vietnam and Indonesia. For GPN research, the identified filtering mechanisms illustrate how the territoriality of GPNs contributes to differentiated territorial outcomes. The findings therefore indicate the need to intensify the appreciation of the particular territorial configuration of GPNs as this yields considerable explanatory power for understanding the unequal contours of the global economy