THE 2014 MW 6.9 NORTH AEGEAN TROUGH (NAT) EARTHQUAKE: SEISMOLOGICAL AND GEODETIC EVIDENCE

A strong earthquake (Mw 6.9) on 24 May 2014 ruptured the North Aegean Trough (NAT) in Greece, west of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). In order to provide unbiased constrains of the rupture process and fault geometry of the earthquake, seismological and geodetic data were analyzed independently. First, based on teleseismic long-period P- and SH- waveforms a point-source solution yielded dominantly right-lateral strike-slip faulting mechanism. Furthermore, finite fault inversion of broad-band data revealed the slip history of the earthquake. Second, GPS slip vectors derived from 11 permanent GPS stations uniformly distributed around the meizoseismal area of the earthquake indicated significant horizontal coseismic slip. Inversion of GPS-derived displacements on the basis of Okada model and using the new TOPological INVersion (TOPINV) algorithm permitted to model a vertical strike slip fault, consistent with that derived from seismological data. Obtained results are consistent with the NAT structure and constrain well the fault geometry and the dynamics of the 2014 earthquake. The latter seems to fill a gap in seismicity along the NAT in the last 50 years, but seems not to have a direct relationship with the sequence of recent faulting farther east, along the NAFZ

Multi-sensor measurement of dynamic deflections and structural health monitoring of flexible and stiff bridges

We investigated the response of bridges of different types to controlled and to wind and traffic-induced excitations; the emphasis was on deflections,derived from recordings of geodetic sensors and accelerometers (output-only analysis). Our focus was to push the limits of the existing experimental techniques, in order to cover not only flexible, but also stiff structures, and to present independently validated results. Our study focused on a 700m long, thin-deck cable-stayed bridge, a stiff steel pedestrian bridge, a historic composite (masonry/steel) train bridge and a 30m long, gradually decaying, currently swaying pedestrian timber bridge. Our basic strategy was first to develop data measurement and processing techniques using controlled (supervised learning) experiments, and then, (1) use collocated, redundant and distributed geodetic sensors (GPS/GNSS and Robotic Total Stations, RTS), as well as accelerometers, in order to record bridge excitations, especially con-trolled excitations leading to free attenuating oscillations;(2) develop techniques to denoise recordings of various sensors based on structural/logical constraints and sensor fusion, compensating for the weaknesses inherent in each type of sensor), validate results and avoid pitfalls;(3) monitor the episodic and gradual decay of a pedestrian bridge, through repeated surveys under similar loading and environmental conditions and using similar instrumentation.The output of our studies is to confirm the potential of modern sensors to measure, under certain conditions, reliable mm-level dynamic deflections even of stiff structures (3-6Hz dominant frequencies) and to provide firm constraints for structural analysis, including evidence for changes of first modal frequencies produced by structural decay, even to identify dynamic effects such as foundations response to dynamic loading

Forecasting magma-chamber rupture at Santorini volcano, Greece

How much magma needs to be added to a shallow magma chamber to cause rupture, dyke injection, and a potential eruption? Models that yield reliable answers to this question are needed in order to facilitate eruption forecasting. Development of a long-lived shallow magma chamber requires periodic influx of magmas from a parental body at depth. This redistribution process does not necessarily cause an eruption but produces a net volume change that can be measured geodetically by inversion techniques. Using continuum-mechanics and fracture-mechanics principles, we calculate the amount of magma contained at shallow depth beneath Santorini volcano, Greece. We demonstrate through structural analysis of dykes exposed within the Santorini caldera, previously published data on the volume of recent eruptions, and geodetic measurements of the 2011–2012 unrest period, that the measured 0.02% increase in volume of Santorini’s shallow magma chamber was associated with magmatic excess pressure increase of around 1.1 MPa. This excess pressure was high enough to bring the chamber roof close to rupture and dyke injection. For volcanoes with known typical extrusion and intrusion (dyke) volumes, the new methodology presented here makes it possible to forecast the conditions for magma-chamber failure and dyke injection at any geodetically well-monitored volcano

Recent geodetic unrest at Santorini Caldera, Greece

After approximately 60 years of seismic quiescence within Santorini caldera, in January 2011 the volcano reawakened with a significant seismic swarm and rapidly expanding radial deformation. The deformation is imaged by a dense network of 19 survey and 5 continuous GPS stations, showing that as of 21 January 2012, the volcano has extended laterally from a point inside the northern segment of the caldera by about 140 mm and is expanding at 180 mm/yr. A series of spherical source models show the source is not migrating significantly, but remains about 4 km depth and has expanded by 14 million m3since inflation began. A distributed sill model is also tested, which shows a possible N-S elongation of the volumetric source. While observations of the current deformation sequence are unprecedented at Santorini, it is not certain that an eruption is imminent as other similar calderas have experienced comparable activity without eruption.Published versio