Potencijalni utjecaj Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike na hrvatski mljekarski sektor - rezultati modela

Milk in terms of production value has the second biggest share in Croatian agricultural sector in 2013 (CBS, 2014). It could be speculated that after the abolition of quotas in the European Union, the declining trend in domestic production will continue and that exposure to free European market will significantly affect the competitiveness of domestic production. The aim of this paper is to analyse the prospects of Croatian dairy industry (sector) under certain conditions of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and to present projections simulated with the help of partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The main model inputs are policy and macroeconomic variables, supply-use balances of agro-food products and producer prices. The Baseline projections has shown that in 2025 in line with the CAP implementation there might be a decrease of dairy cows number by 33 %, the raw milk price by 14 % and the collected cow’s milk amount by 13 % compared to the five-year average of 2008-2012. The positive effect was noted in productivity, according to the simulation, with an increase by 25 %, which consequently may lead to increased deliveries to dairies for about 17 %. Therefore preliminary results show that accounting for milk processing the dairy sector in Croatia might obtain a favourable situation by 2025. Taking into account the EU market situation, there is an opportunity to increase milk processing given the current level of prices in the EU market and global markets, and taking into account the abolition of milk quotas. Also, the results suggest, according to the experience of other states, that the utilization of funds of 1st and 2nd pillar of the CAP (utilization measures across projects) in order to improve the production structure and efficiency will play an important role.Mlijeko je proizvod koji u kontekstu vrijednosti poljoprivredne proizvodnje udjelom zauzima drugo mjesto (DZS, 2013). Očekuje se da će se nakon ukidanja kvota u Europskoj uniji, trend smanjenja domaće proizvodnje nastaviti i da će izloženost slobodnom europskom tržištu znatno utjecati na konkurentnost domaće proizvodnje. Cilj rada je analizirati perspektivu hrvatske mliječne industrije (sektora) pod određenim uvjetima politike unutar Europske unije te predstaviti projekcije simulirane uz pomoć ekonometrijskog AGMEMOD modela parcijalne ravnoteže. Ulazni podaci modela su političke i makroekonomske varijable, proizvodno potrošne bilance proizvoda, proizvođačke cijene te udio masti i bjelančevina u mliječnim proizvodima. Polazni scenarij (primjena Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike od 2013.) pokazao je da će se do 2025. godine smanjiti broj mliječnih krava (za 33 %), cijena sirovog mlijeka (za 14 %) i količina prikupljenog kravljeg mlijeka (za 13 %) u odnosu na četverogodišnji prosjek 2008/2012. Prema simulaciji, pozitivan efekt zabilježen je u produktivnosti, s povećanjem od 25 %, što posljedično može dovesti do povećanja isporuke mljekarama za oko 17 %. Preliminarni rezultati Polaznog scenarija pokazuju povoljnu situaciju za hrvatski mljekarski sektor do 2025. godine u skladu s prilikama na tržištu EU, s mogućnošću povećanja proizvodnje obzirom na sadašnju razinu cijena na tržištu EU i svjetskim tržištima, uzimajući u obzir ukidanje mliječnih kvota. Također, rezultati navode na zaključak, prema iskustvima drugih članica, da će iskorištenje sredstava I. i II. stupa ZPP-a (iskorištavanja mjera preko projekata) u smislu poboljšanja proizvodnje, strukture i učinkovitost igrati najvažniju ulogu

Extension of the CAPRI model with an irrigation sub-module

The study enables the CAPRI model to make simulations of the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production, as well as is looking at the sustainable use of water and the implementation of water-related policies including water pricing. To investigate the role of irrigation as adaptation strategy to climate change, we define a set of simulation scenarios that account for the likely effects on water price, crop yields, water availability and irrigation efficiency.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY BALANCE OF POULTRY MEAT IN CROATIA

Meso peradi sve je značajniji izvor proteina u ljudskoj potrošnji. Kratki proizvodni ciklus, relativno niske cijene te nedostatak vjerskih ograničenja u potrošnji čimbenici su koji pozitivno djeluju na razvitak peradarstva. U strukturi mesa peradi najveći udjel je pilećega mesa. Cilj istraživanja bio je izračunati razinu samodostatnosti za meso peradi u Hrvatskoj u razdoblju 2000.-2012. te na temelju dobivenih rezultata izračunati stupanj samodostatnosti u 2016. godini. Za izračun stupnja samodostatnosti korištena je metoda bilanciranja. Stupanj samodostatnosti u proizvodnji mesa peradi u Hrvatskoj viši je nego kod drugih vrsta mesa i bio je između 80 i 90%, ali se očekuje njegovo daljnje smanjenje te bi se u 2016. godini domaćom proizvodnjom podmirivalo oko 81,17% potreba.Poultry meat is an important protein source in the human consumption. The main factors that have a positive effect on the development of the poultry industry are short production cycle, relatively low cost and the lack of religious restrictions on consumption. Chicken meat has the biggest share in the structure of poultry meat. The paper objective was to calculate the level of self-sufficiency degree in poultry meat in Croatia in the period from 2000 to 2012 and the degree of self-sufficiency in 2016 based on the results obtained. The method of balancing was used for calculation of self-sufficiency degree. The degree of self-sufficiency in the production of poultry meat in Croatia is higher than in other types of meat being between 80 and 90%. However, further decrease is expected and in 2016 domestic production would meet 81.17% of the domestic needs

The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025

This report gives an overview on the Ukrainian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Ukraine, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Ukraine has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership

The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent existing heterogeneity of agricultural systems by linking together individual EU Member State models, an aggregated EU model and several accession countries into one single model, while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy change across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from significant communication and administration requirements, to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices and tools as well as to the design of institutional settings to achieve consistency.linking models, policy analysis, partial equilibrium modelling, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Integrating the Agricultural Sector into the New EU Climate Policy Framework for 2030: A Scenario Analysis to Highlight Potential Impacts and Challenges

According to the European Council's recent agreement on domestic climate and energy goals, greenhouse gas emissions from sectors outside the EU's Emission Trading Scheme have to be cut by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. So far no decision has been taken on agriculture's specific involvement in mitigation obligations or on how mitigation targets would be distributed between Member States. Based on hypothetical assumptions, we employ the CAPRI model to illustrate and highlight some potential impacts and challenges related to an integration of the agricultural sector into the new EU climate policy framework. Results of the hypothetical mitigation policy scenario show important impacts on EU agriculture, in particular the livestock sector, if the distribution key of the current Effort Sharing Decision would be rigidly applied as in our assumptions. The results highlight the importance of a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation policy instruments in the EU and its Member States, as well as the need for a wider consideration and adoption of technological mitigation options

Calificación financiera y perceptiva de las empresas en la industría cárnica

Mesna industrija vodeća je poddjelatnost prehrambene industrije s najvećim udjelom ostvarenih prihoda i zaposlenih radnika. U ovom sektoru u 2012. godini s različitim su financijskim uspjehom i zastupljenošću na tržištu poslovale 184 tvrtke. Cilj rada je višekriterijski usporediti i rangirati najveće tvrtke iz hrvatske mesne industrije. U tu je svrhu korištena višekriterijska metoda Analitički hijerarhijski proces kojom su u ukupnu sintetiziranu ocjenu tvrtki uključeni (a) financijski rezultati, (b) prilagođenost na promjenu tržišnih uvjeta u 2013. i (c) ocjene potrošača u pogledu kvalitete proizvoda i tržišnih marki. Od sedam najvećih kompanija najviša ocjena i prvo mjesto pripalo je mesnoj industriji PIK Vrbovec. Na drugom je mjestu MI braća Pivac dok je treća Perutnina Ptuj-PIPO.Meat industry is a leading sub-category of food industry with the largest share of generated revenue and salaried employees. In 2012 this sector included a total of 184 companies operating with a different degree of financial success and market share. The aim of the paper is to perform a multi-criteria comparison and rank the largest Croatian meat industry companies. For this purpose we used a multi-criteria decision making method, namely Analytical Hierarchy Process, which synthesized (a) financial results, (b) adjustment to changing market conditions in 2013, and (c) consumers’ assessment of product quality and brands in the overall evaluation of companies concerned. Of the seven largest companies, the meat industry PIK Vrbovec received the highest rating and placed first. Meat industries Braća Pivac and Perutnina Ptuj - PIPO occupied the second and third place, respectively.Die Fleischindustrie ist der führende Zweig der Lebensmittelindustrie mit dem höchsten Anteil an erwirtschafteten Erträgen und angestellten Arbeitern. In 2012 waren in dieser Branche 184 Firmen tätig, die unterschiedliche finanzielle Ergebnisse verzeichneten und auf dem Markt unterschiedlich vertreten waren. Ziel der Arbeit ist es, anhand von mehreren Kriterien die größten Firmen der kroatischen Fleischindustrie zu vergleichen und sie untereinander zu rangieren. Zu diesem Zweck wurde die Methode des so genannten Analytischen Hierarchieprozesses angewandt, bei dem die (a) Finanzergebnisse, (b) die Anpassungsfähigkeit an geänderte Marktverhältnisse in 2013 und (c) die Bewertung der Verbraucher in Bezug auf die Produktqualität und die Handelsmarken in die synthetisierte Beurteilung einbezogen wurden. Von den sieben größten Unternehmen ist die Fleischindustrie PIK Vrbovec an führender Stelle. Auf Platz zwei befindet sich die Firma MI braća Pivac, während Perutnina Ptuj-PIPO den dritten Platz belegt.L’industria delle carni è l’attività leader nel settore dell’industria alimentare sia per ricavi realizzati, sia per numero di lavoratori occupati. In questo settore nel 2012, con differente successo economico-finanziario e con differente rappresentatività sul mercato, hanno operato 184 imprese. Lo scopo del lavoro è comparare e classificare secondo più criteri le maggiori imprese operanti nel settore dell’industria croata delle carni. A tal fine è stato impiegato il metodo a più criteri Processo analitico gerarchico che, nella complessiva valutazione sintetica delle imprese, comprende (a) i risultati finanziari, (b) l’adattabilità ai cambiamenti delle condizioni di mercato nel 2013 e (c) la valutazione dei consumatori in ordine alla qualità dei prodotti e dei marchi commerciali. Delle sette maggiori imprese considerate, il voto più alto è stato assegnato all’industria delle carni PIK Vrbovec. Al secondo posto s’è classificata la MI dei f.lli Pivac, al terzo la Perutnina Ptuj-PIPO.La industría cárnica es la sub-actividad más destacada de la industría alimentaria con la mayor parte de los ingresos y número más grande de los empleados. En 2012 en este sector funcionaban 184 empresas con diferentes éxitos financieros y presencia en el mercado. El objetivo del estudio es hacer comparación multicriterial y jerarquizar las mayores empresas de la industría cárnica croata. Con ese fin fue usado el método multicriterial Proceso analítico jerárquico, en el que en la clasificacón general fueron incuidos (a) resultados financieros, (b) adaptación al cambio de las condiciones en el mercado en 2013 y (c) las evaluaciones de los consumidores considerando la calidad del producto y de las marcas. De las siete mayores empresas, PIK Vrbovec obtuvo la calificación más alta y el primer lugar. Segudno lugar fue concedido a MI braća Pivac y el tercero a Perutnina Ptuj-PIPO

AGMEMOD Outlook for Agricultural and Food Markets in EU Member States 2018-2030

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semiskimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables