Potencijalni utjecaj Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike na hrvatski mljekarski sektor - rezultati modela

Milk in terms of production value has the second biggest share in Croatian agricultural sector in 2013 (CBS, 2014). It could be speculated that after the abolition of quotas in the European Union, the declining trend in domestic production will continue and that exposure to free European market will significantly affect the competitiveness of domestic production. The aim of this paper is to analyse the prospects of Croatian dairy industry (sector) under certain conditions of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and to present projections simulated with the help of partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The main model inputs are policy and macroeconomic variables, supply-use balances of agro-food products and producer prices. The Baseline projections has shown that in 2025 in line with the CAP implementation there might be a decrease of dairy cows number by 33 %, the raw milk price by 14 % and the collected cow’s milk amount by 13 % compared to the five-year average of 2008-2012. The positive effect was noted in productivity, according to the simulation, with an increase by 25 %, which consequently may lead to increased deliveries to dairies for about 17 %. Therefore preliminary results show that accounting for milk processing the dairy sector in Croatia might obtain a favourable situation by 2025. Taking into account the EU market situation, there is an opportunity to increase milk processing given the current level of prices in the EU market and global markets, and taking into account the abolition of milk quotas. Also, the results suggest, according to the experience of other states, that the utilization of funds of 1st and 2nd pillar of the CAP (utilization measures across projects) in order to improve the production structure and efficiency will play an important role.Mlijeko je proizvod koji u kontekstu vrijednosti poljoprivredne proizvodnje udjelom zauzima drugo mjesto (DZS, 2013). Očekuje se da će se nakon ukidanja kvota u Europskoj uniji, trend smanjenja domaće proizvodnje nastaviti i da će izloženost slobodnom europskom tržištu znatno utjecati na konkurentnost domaće proizvodnje. Cilj rada je analizirati perspektivu hrvatske mliječne industrije (sektora) pod određenim uvjetima politike unutar Europske unije te predstaviti projekcije simulirane uz pomoć ekonometrijskog AGMEMOD modela parcijalne ravnoteže. Ulazni podaci modela su političke i makroekonomske varijable, proizvodno potrošne bilance proizvoda, proizvođačke cijene te udio masti i bjelančevina u mliječnim proizvodima. Polazni scenarij (primjena Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike od 2013.) pokazao je da će se do 2025. godine smanjiti broj mliječnih krava (za 33 %), cijena sirovog mlijeka (za 14 %) i količina prikupljenog kravljeg mlijeka (za 13 %) u odnosu na četverogodišnji prosjek 2008/2012. Prema simulaciji, pozitivan efekt zabilježen je u produktivnosti, s povećanjem od 25 %, što posljedično može dovesti do povećanja isporuke mljekarama za oko 17 %. Preliminarni rezultati Polaznog scenarija pokazuju povoljnu situaciju za hrvatski mljekarski sektor do 2025. godine u skladu s prilikama na tržištu EU, s mogućnošću povećanja proizvodnje obzirom na sadašnju razinu cijena na tržištu EU i svjetskim tržištima, uzimajući u obzir ukidanje mliječnih kvota. Također, rezultati navode na zaključak, prema iskustvima drugih članica, da će iskorištenje sredstava I. i II. stupa ZPP-a (iskorištavanja mjera preko projekata) u smislu poboljšanja proizvodnje, strukture i učinkovitost igrati najvažniju ulogu

Extension of the CAPRI model with an irrigation sub-module

The study enables the CAPRI model to make simulations of the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production, as well as is looking at the sustainable use of water and the implementation of water-related policies including water pricing. To investigate the role of irrigation as adaptation strategy to climate change, we define a set of simulation scenarios that account for the likely effects on water price, crop yields, water availability and irrigation efficiency.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY BALANCE OF POULTRY MEAT IN CROATIA

Meso peradi sve je značajniji izvor proteina u ljudskoj potrošnji. Kratki proizvodni ciklus, relativno niske cijene te nedostatak vjerskih ograničenja u potrošnji čimbenici su koji pozitivno djeluju na razvitak peradarstva. U strukturi mesa peradi najveći udjel je pilećega mesa. Cilj istraživanja bio je izračunati razinu samodostatnosti za meso peradi u Hrvatskoj u razdoblju 2000.-2012. te na temelju dobivenih rezultata izračunati stupanj samodostatnosti u 2016. godini. Za izračun stupnja samodostatnosti korištena je metoda bilanciranja. Stupanj samodostatnosti u proizvodnji mesa peradi u Hrvatskoj viši je nego kod drugih vrsta mesa i bio je između 80 i 90%, ali se očekuje njegovo daljnje smanjenje te bi se u 2016. godini domaćom proizvodnjom podmirivalo oko 81,17% potreba.Poultry meat is an important protein source in the human consumption. The main factors that have a positive effect on the development of the poultry industry are short production cycle, relatively low cost and the lack of religious restrictions on consumption. Chicken meat has the biggest share in the structure of poultry meat. The paper objective was to calculate the level of self-sufficiency degree in poultry meat in Croatia in the period from 2000 to 2012 and the degree of self-sufficiency in 2016 based on the results obtained. The method of balancing was used for calculation of self-sufficiency degree. The degree of self-sufficiency in the production of poultry meat in Croatia is higher than in other types of meat being between 80 and 90%. However, further decrease is expected and in 2016 domestic production would meet 81.17% of the domestic needs

Linking Large Numbers of Individual National Models: The Case of the AGMEMOD Partnership

The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent heterogeneity of the agricultural systems existing by combining individual country models of 27 EU Member States and several accession countries into one single model while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from high communication and administration requirements to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices and tools as well as to the design of institutional settings for avoiding inconsistencies.Linking Models, Policy Analysis, Partial Equilibrium Modelling, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Agricultural and Food Policy,

The agri-food sector in Russia: Current situation and market outlook until 2025

This report gives an overview on the Russian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Russia, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Russia has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025

This report gives an overview on the Ukrainian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Ukraine, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Ukraine has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership

The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent existing heterogeneity of agricultural systems by linking together individual EU Member State models, an aggregated EU model and several accession countries into one single model, while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy change across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from significant communication and administration requirements, to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices and tools as well as to the design of institutional settings to achieve consistency.linking models, policy analysis, partial equilibrium modelling, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

CAPRI Water 2.0: an upgraded and updated CAPRI water module

Since 2012 the JRC has been working on the development of a water module in the CAPRI model to allow expanding the analysis of agricultural policy to cover water related issues. This report describes the latest improvements to the module including the change to 2012 base year, the update of the water data used and the spatial coverage, the inclusion of water as a production factor for rain-fed agriculture. In addition, it describes several aspects for further developments of the CAPRI water module, such as: to account for competition between agricultural and non-agricultural water use as well as extending the water module to non-EU regions. The usefulness of the update is shown with two stylized scenarios reflecting impacts of climate change both in terms of less water availability for irrigation and precipitation.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

An economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture

The report presents an overview of the historical and projected development of agricultural GHG emissions in the EU. The major objective of the report is to present the improvements made in the CAPRI modelling system with respect to GHG emission accounting and especially regarding the implementation of endogenous technological mitigation options. Furthermore, the CAPRI model was applied to provide a quantitative assessment of illustrative GHG mitigation policy options in the agricultural sector, and their production and economic implications.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom