Minimum number of settlers for survival on another planet

International audienceWe address the difficult problem of determining the minimum number of settlers and resources for survival on another planet. A mathematical model is proposed and its parameters are discussed. It is based on an estimation of the average annual time needed for a settler to produce all objects. The main parameters are the number of technologies that have to be mastered, the number of settlers and the sharing factor, which depends on the number of shared objects among the settlers

Degraded situation awareness risk assessment in the aerospace domain

International audienceNumerous accidents are due to situation awareness degradation. However, as there exist many different causes and human factors are not well understood, it is very difficult for experts to provide probability risks assessments. It is proposed here to simplify the problem by classifying accidents according to the main demons that degrade situation awareness and to use a Bayesian approach with the Noisy-Or nodes. Interestingly, it is possible to use the same approach in the robotics domain

European Mars mission architecture using an enhanced Ariane launcher

International audienceA heavy version of the Ariane launcher is hypothesized for a manned mission to Mars. This enhanced Ariane has 100 mt LEO capability and 36 mt capability for transMars injection (V∞=3.5km/s). In order to simplify the scenario and minimize the costs, it is proposed a pre-deploy semi-direct architecture with several rather small spaceships, 3astronauts and an aerocapture maneuver for Mars orbit insertion. There are several advantages: First, as the payload to the Mars surface is split into equal parts, the same landing space vehicle can be used with mass and sizecompatible with the payload capability of the launcher. Second, the choice of relatively small landers allows the use of simple deployable rigid heatshields, which could be used both for aerocapture and entry, descent and landing. The use of small landers also reduces the complexity of the tests for the qualification of the descent and landing systems and procedures, which is a critical aspect of the preparation phase. 5 launches are required in this architecture

Minimum number of settlers for survival on another planet

International audienceWe address the difficult problem of determining the minimum number of settlers and resources for survival on another planet. A mathematical model is proposed and its parameters are discussed. It is based on an estimation of the average annual time needed for a settler to produce all objects. The main parameters are the number of technologies that have to be mastered, the number of settlers and the sharing factor, which depends on the number of shared objects among the settlers

Mars sample return as a key step before manned missions

International audienc

Parametric equation for the settlement of mars

International audienceThe colonization of Mars has been addressed by many authors but there is still a lack of methodology to determine its feasibility in terms of costs and logistics. We propose a new approach based on a mathematical model of the required payload mass per year that has to be sent to Mars to sustain the life of the settlers during the long period of development of the colony that precedes the self-sufficiency capability. As the required mass is highly dependent on the available working time of the settlers, it is suggested to transform the mass estimation problem into the estimation of the annual missing time to produce all objects needed for the daily life of the settlers. The annual missing time is calculated using five parameters. The first is the number of settlers. The second is the working time capacity per person. The third is an estimate of the total time per person and per year that is required to produce all objects needed for a single person. The fourth is called the sharing factor and is a function of the number of settlers. The fifth parameter allows the conversion of the annual missing time into an annual mass of payload.

La robotique humanoïde

International audienc

Humanity extinction by asteroid impact

The risk of humanity extinction by giant asteroid impact is addressed. A 100 km sized asteroid impact may transform the Earth into an inhospitable planet, thus causing the extinction of many life forms including the human species. The exact reason for such a result remains nevertheless uncertain. Based on Moon crater history and NEA observations, the probability of a giant impact is between 0.03 and 0.3 for the next billion years. However, as the warning time would be in general relatively long, humanity could have time to settle on other planets with a high probability of success. The greatest threat could come from giant long period comets. We show that the probability of a giant comet impact is 2.2 × 10-12 for the next hundred years with a very short warning time. Many possible causes would lead to a degradation of life support and the extinction of humanity during the decades following the impact. It could be a lack of energy or important resources, other catastrophic events, conflicts and inefficient human organization and the preparatory phase could also play an important role. All in all, the extinction would be highly probable though not totally sure

Bayesian network for the prediction of situation awareness errors

International audienceA new method is proposed to predict situation awareness errors in training simulations. It is based on Endsley's model and the eight 'situation awareness demons' that she described. The predictions are determined thanks to a Bayesian network and noisy-or nodes. A maturity model is introduced to come up with the initialisation problem. The NASA behavioural competency model is also used to take individual differences into account

Degraded situation awareness risk assessment in the aerospace domain

International audienceNumerous accidents are due to situation awareness degradation. However, as there exist many different causes and human factors are not well understood, it is very difficult for experts to provide probability risks assessments. It is proposed here to simplify the problem by classifying accidents according to the main demons that degrade situation awareness and to use a Bayesian approach with the Noisy-Or nodes. Interestingly, it is possible to use the same approach in the robotics domain