Flash flood susceptibility assessment in Jeddah city (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) using bivariate and multivariate statistical models

The city of Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) has experienced two catastrophic flash flood events in 2009 and 2011. These flood events had catastrophic effect on human lives and livelihoods around the wadi Muraikh, wadi Qus, wadi Methweb, and wadi Ghulail in which 113 people were dead and with 10,000 houses and 17,000 vehicles were damaged. Thus, a comprehensive flood management is required. The flood management requires information on different aspects such as the hydrological, geotechnical, environmental, social, and economic aspects of flooding. Flood susceptibility mapping for any area helps the decision makers to understand the flood trends and can aid in appropriate planning and flood prevention. In this study, two models were used for the generation of flood susceptibility maps for the Jeddah region. The first model includes bivariate probability analysis (frequency ratio), and the second model uses the multivariate analysis. For the multivariate model, the acquired weights of the FR model were entered into the logistic regression model to evaluate the correlation between flood occurrence and each related factor. This integration will overcome some of the weakness of the logistic regression, and the performance the LR will be enhanced. A flood inventory map was prepared with a total of 127 flood locations. These flood locations were extracted from different sources including field investigation and high-resolution satellite image (IKONOS 1 m). These flood locations were randomly split into two groups, one dataset representing 70 % was used for training the models, and the remaining 30 % was used for models validation. Various independent flood-related factors such as slope, elevation, curvature, geology, landuse, soil drain, and distance from streams were included. The impact of each independent flood-related factors on flooding was evaluated by analyzing each independent factor with the historical flood inventory data. The training and validation datasets were used to evaluate the flood susceptibility maps using the success and the prediction rate methods. The results of the accuracy assessment showed a success rate of 90.4 and 91.6 % and a prediction rate of 89.6 and 91.3 % for FR and ensemble FR and LR models, respectively. In addition, a comparison has been made between real flood events in 2009 and the resultant susceptibility maps. Hence, it is concluded that the FR and ensemble Fr and LR models can provide an acceptable accuracy in the prediction of flood susceptibility in the Saudi Arabia. Our findings indicated that these flood susceptibility maps can assist planners, decision makers, and other agencies to deal with the flood management and planning in the area

Remote sensing-based studies coupled with field data reveal urgent solutions to avert the risk of flash floods in the Wadi Qus (east of Jeddah) Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

On November 25, 2009, heavy amount of rainfall precipitated in the city of Jeddah that led to floods causing unexpected loss of life (113 person died), and damaged public and private properties (10,000 cars were damaged/destroyed, and many houses, roads, highways, and industrial properties were also affected). The city of Jeddah is located within an independent mega drainage basin with a surface area of 1,760 km2. This mega basin is divided into three major sub-basins (northern, middle, and southern). Wadi Qus is located in the southern sub-basin with an area of ~63 km2. It passes through many of the neighborhoods such as Al-Harazat, Al-Sawaid, Queza, Al-Mesaid, Al-Haramin Highway, and the King Abdel Aziz University. These areas were severely damaged during the flash flood event in 2009. The current study deals with the determination of the best sites for the construction of flood control dams, followed by a number of detailed studies to ensure that these selected sites are appropriate. Geological, geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrological investigations were conducted to identify the types of rocks, the subsurface conditions, and the geotechnical properties of abutment and subsurface of soil and rock in the dam sites. The study found that there are three locations that can be appropriate for the construction of the flood control dams at Wadi Qus. Hydrological studies indicated that the runoff volumes for sub-basins B1, B2, and B3 are 2,102,709, 1,023,156, and 4,868,304 m3, respectively, for 500-year return period and 2,356,081, 1,149,687, and 5,451,123 m3, respectively, for 1,000-year return period. Comparing these values with the reservoir volumes calculated from the detailed ground survey with different dam’s height, it was found that dam’s heights of 15.5, 11.5, and 13.5 m for dams Q01, Q02, and Q03, respectively, are adequate for different basin volumes for 1,000-year return periods. Finally, the conceptual designs have been prepared and recommended for these dams

Use of geological and geomorphological parameters in potential suitability assessment for urban planning development at Wadi Al-Asla basin, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

During the planning of urban environment, usually economic and social parameters are taken into consideration. As a result, urban planning areas are susceptible and vulnerable to different types of natural disasters, which cause extensive damages to these areas. In the current study, for the protection of the urban environment, a unique approach of urban planning and sustainable development is proposed. The study area is the Wadi Al-Aska basin (East of Jeddah City), Saudi Arabia. Before the suitability analysis, urban development in the Jeddah area from 1973 to 2009 was applied. In the current study, an integrated evaluation of the suitable areas for urban development is proposed by using geological, geomorphological, and geographical characteristics of the study area as well as flash flood hazard factor. The used parameters were correlated by using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method and incorporated into a geographic information system (GIS) in order to produce the corresponding suitability maps. The study area is classified into five categories including very high, high, moderate, low, and very low suitability for urban development. These can be attributed mainly to the fact that in the majority of cases, only geographical, social, and economical factors were used for urban development, whereas in the current study, geomorphological, geographical, geological, and natural hazards parameters were quantified and taken into account

Analysis on causes of flash flood in Jeddah city (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) of 2009 and 2011 using multi-sensor remote sensing data and GIS

The Jeddah city is located in a coastal plain area, in the middle of the western side of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, bounded by the Red Sea to the west and mountains to the east. Jeddah city receives rainfall runoff from the foothills through different drainage pathways (wadis). During intense rainfall events, runoff flows westward from the hills and mountains towards the Red Sea, causing flash floods in the urban areas along the pathways of these wadis. Two major flash flood events occurred in Jeddah city during 20 November 2009 - January 2011. These events were characterized by rainfall precipitation values of 70 and 111 mm, respectively. Each flash flood event has duration of three hours. The impact of these two flood events have been disastrous causing extensive flooding that killed 113 people in 2009 and damaged infrastructure and property (more than 10,000 homes and 17,000 vehicles). This study deals with the analysis of the different factors that caused these flash flood events. The results indicate that the causes of these floods are related to a number of factors which play as a major contribution to the worsening of the flood disaster. These factors were classified into the following: geomorphological features, anthropogenic activities (urban changes), network and catchment factors, and rainfall and climatic changes factors. The climatic changes have a major impact on the rainfall intensity and will appear more in the future. Other factors related to the wadis tributaries are narrow passes, and high slope of the wadi has additional impacts in the flash floods in the area. The anthropogenic activities include the proliferation of slums and construction in the valleys coupled with the lack of suitable water streams to accommodate the amount of water flowing and the presence of dirt led to the direction of flow