Predicting the current distribution of the chacoan peccary (catagonus wagneri) in the gran Chaco

The Chacoan peccary (Catagonus wagneri), or Tagua, an endemic species living in the Chaco eco¬region, is endangered by highly increasing deforestation rates across the region, particularly in the last decade. This situation highlights the need to better understand the current distribution of the species, as well as how environmental conditions affect habitat suitability. This study predicts the distribution of the Chacoan peccary and evaluates the current environmental conditions in the Chaco for this species. Using six environmental variables and 177 confirmed occurrence records (from 2000 to 2015) provided by researchers, we developed a Species Distribution Model (SDM) applying the Maxent algorithm. The final model was highly accurate and significant (p < 0.001; AUC 0.860 ± 0.0268; omission error 1.82 %; post¬hoc validation of omission error using independent presence¬only records 1.33 %), predicting that 46.24 % of the Chaco is suitable habitat for the Chacoan peccary, with the most important areas concentrated in the middle of Paraguay and northern Argentina. Land cover, isothermality and elevation were the variables that better explained the habitat suitability for the Chacoan peccary. Despite some portions of suitable areas occurring inside protected areas, the borders and the central portions of suitable areas have recently suffered from intensive deforestation and development, and most of the highly suitable areas for the species are not under protection. The results provide fundamental insights for the establishment of priority Chacoan peccary conservation areas within its rangeFil: Paschoaletto Micchi, Katia Maria. Universidade Do Sao Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Esalq; Brasil. Conservation Breeding Specialist Group Brazilian network; BrasilFil: Silva Angelieri, Cintia Camila. Universidade Do Sao Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Esalq; BrasilFil: Altrichter, Mariana. Prescott College; Estados UnidosFil: Desbiez, Arnaud. Royal Zoological Society of Scotland. Edimburgo; Reino Unido. Conservation Breeding Specialist Group Brazilian network; BrasilFil: Yanosky, Alberto. Asociación Guyra Paraguay. Asunción; ParaguayFil: Campos Krauer, Juan Manuel. Centro Chaqueño para la Conservación y la Investigación; ParaguayFil: Torres, Ricardo Jose. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; ArgentinaFil: Cabral, Hugo. Asociación Guyra Paraguay. Asunción; ParaguayFil: Cartés, José. Asociación Guyra Paraguay. Asunción; ParaguayFil: Cuellar, Rosa Leny. Fundación Kaa Iya; BoliviaFil: Gallegos, Marcelo. Secretaría de Ambiente de la Provincia de Salta. Programa Guardaparques; ArgentinaFil: Giordano, Anthony J.. No especifica;Fil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigación de Recursos Naturales. Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; ArgentinaFil: Maffei, Leonardo. Wildlife Conservation Society. Lima; PerúFil: Neris, Nora. Universidad Nacional de Asunción; ParaguayFil: Saldivar Bellassai, Silvia. Itaipu Binacional; ParaguayFil: Wallace, Robert. Wildlife Conservation Society. New York; Estados UnidosFil: Lizarraga, Leónidas. Delegación Regional Noroeste. Sistema de Información de Biodiversidad de la Administración de Parques Nacionales. Salta; ArgentinaFil: Thompson, Jeffrey. Universidad Nacional de Asunción; ParaguayFil: Velilla, Mariela. Universidad Nacional de Asunción; Paragua