Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

What are the arguments for and against rational therapy for epilepsy?

Although more than a dozen new anti-seizure drugs (ASDs) have entered the market since 1993, a substantial proportion of patients (~30 %) remain refractory to current treatments. Thus, a concerted effort to identify and develop new therapies that will help these patients continues. Until this effort succeeds, it is reasonable to re-assess the use of currently available therapies and to consider how these therapies might be utilized in a more efficacious manner. This applies to the selection of monotherapies in newly-diagnosed epilepsy, but perhaps, more importantly, to the choice of combination treatments in otherwise drug-refractory epilepsy. Rational polytherapy is a concept that is predicated on the combination of drugs with complementary mechanisms of action (MoAs) that work synergistically to maximize efficacy and minimize the potential for adverse events. Furthermore, rational polytherapy requires a detailed understanding of the MoA subclasses amongst available ASDs and an appreciation of the empirical evidence that supports the use of specific combinations. The majority of ASDs can be loosely categorized into those that target neurotransmission and network hyperexcitability, modulate intrinsic neuronal properties through ion channels, or possess broad-spectrum efficacy as a result of multiple mechanisms. Within each of these categories, there are discrete pharmacological profiles that differentiate individual ASDs. This chapter will consider how knowledge of MoA can help guide therapy in a rational manner, both in the selection of monotherapies for specific seizure types and syndromes, but also in the choice of drug combinations for patients whose epilepsy is not optimally controlled with a single ASD