Number of prevented new leprosy cases and number needed to test and treat in a population of 1 million after 10 years using a test with 70% sensitivity.

<p>Number of prevented new leprosy cases and number needed to test and treat in a population of 1 million after 10 years using a test with 70% sensitivity.</p

Number needed to test to prevent one new leprosy case.

<p>Results present the efficiency of a diagnostic test in household contacts and a population survey under various assumptions of sensitivity in a high, medium and low endemic setting. High endemic is defined as 25 per 100,000 population, medium as 5 per 100,000, and low as 1 per 100,000.</p

Impact of a diagnostic test used in household contacts and a population survey on the NCDR under various assumptions of sensitivity in a high, medium and low endemic setting.

<p>Four strategies were assessed: testing in 1) household contacts without follow-up, 2) household contacts with a 3-year follow-up, 3) a population survey with a coverage of 50%, and 4) a population survey with a coverage of 100%. Test sensitivities vary between 50% and 100%. The black line represents a strategy in which no diagnostic test was used (i.e. continuation of current control). High endemic is defined as 25 per 100,000 population, medium as 5 per 100,000, and low as 1 per 100,000.</p

Projections of the new case detection rate in in Pará State, Brazil from 1990 to 2050.

<p>The model was able to fit the observed data (1990–2014). Results are the average of 100 runs. The shaded area represents the confidence interval (stochastic variation between individual runs).</p

Trends in High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among General Population Groups in China: A Systematic Review

<div><p>Background</p><p>The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors.</p><p>Methods</p><p>We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors.</p><p>Results</p><p>We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups.</p><p>Discussion</p><p>Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.</p></div

Flow chart of the literature selection process.

<p>Flow chart of the literature selection process.</p

Overview of calibrated parameters.

<p>Overview of calibrated parameters.</p

Trend analyses of indicators of high-risk sexual behavior in young, out-of-school individuals and community residents in China.

<p>(a) proportion that engaged in commercial sex among the community residents; (b) proportion that engaged in sex with multiple partners among community residents; (c) proportion that engaged in premarital sex among the out-of-school youth; (d) prevalence of STIs. The connected dots indicate longitudinal studies. The dashed lines indicate the average trends across the years. Detailed information about the parameters of the dashed lines was given in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0079320#pone.0079320.s004" target="_blank">File S4</a>. The grey dot (b) represents an outlier study that was not included in the average trend analysis.</p

Predicted new case detection rates (per 100,000) at 25 years after the introduction of the indicated intervention scenario for six mechanisms of leprosy susceptibility as described in [9].

<p>The results are average of 100 runs of the simulation model.</p

Example model predictions for blood parasite levels in a subset of individuals.

<p>Black bullets represent data points; black triangles are observations below the detection limit (dashed line). The solid black line represents the posterior mean. The shaded band around it represents the 2.5^th and 97.5^th percentiles of the predicted parasite concentrations, based on 8000 draws from the posterior distribution. Panel headers refer to unique identifiers for CHMI volunteers, which can also be found in the data (<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005255#pcbi.1005255.s008" target="_blank">S1 File</a>).</p