Prognostic factors for changes in the timed 4-stair climb in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, and implications for measuring drug efficacy: A multi-institutional collaboration

The timed 4-stair climb (4SC) assessment has been used to measure function in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) practice and research. We sought to identify prognostic factors for changes in 4SC, assess their consistency across data sources, and the extent to which prognostic scores could be useful in DMD clinical trial design and analysis. Data from patients with DMD in the placebo arm of a phase 3 trial (Tadalafil DMD trial) and two real-world sources (Universitaire Ziekenhuizen, Leuven, Belgium [Leuven] and Cincinnati Children\u27s Hospital Medical Center [CCHMC]) were analyzed. One-year changes in 4SC completion time and velocity (stairs/second) were analyzed. Prognostic models included age, height, weight, steroid use, and multiple timed function tests and were developed using multivariable regression, separately in each data source. Simulations were used to quantify impacts on trial sample size requirements. Data on 1-year changes in 4SC were available from the Tadalafil DMD trial (n = 92) Leuven (n = 67), and CCHMC (n = 212). Models incorporating multiple timed function tests, height, and weight significantly improved prognostic accuracy for 1-year change in 4SC (R2: 29%-36% for 4SC velocity, and 29%-34% for 4SC time) compared to models including only age, baseline 4SC and steroid duration (R2:8%-17% for 4SC velocity and 2%-13% for 4SC time). Measures of walking and rising ability contributed important prognostic information for changes in 4SC. In a randomized trial with equal allocation to treatment and placebo, adjustment for such a prognostic score would enable detection (at 80% power) of a treatment effect of 0.25 stairs/second with 100-120 patients, compared to 170-190 patients without prognostic score adjustment. Combining measures of ambulatory function doubled prognostic accuracy for 1-year changes in 4SC completion time and velocity. Randomized clinical trials incorporating a validated prognostic score could reduce sample size requirements by approximately 40%. Knowledge of important prognostic factors can also inform adjusted comparisons to external controls

DMD Genotypes and Motor Function in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy: A Multi-institution Meta-analysis With Implications for Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Clinical trials of genotype-targeted treatments in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) traditionally compare treated patients to untreated patients with the same DMD genotype class. This avoids confounding of drug efficacy by genotype effects but also shrinks the pool of eligible controls, increasing challenges for trial enrollment in this already rare disease. To evaluate the suitability of genotypically unmatched controls in DMD, we quantified effects of genotype class on 1-year changes in motor function endpoints used in clinical trials. METHODS: Over 1,600 patient-years of follow-up (>700 patients) were studied from six real-world/natural history data sources (UZ Leuven, PRO-DMD-01 shared by CureDuchenne, iMDEX, North Star UK, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, and the DMD Italian Group), with genotypes classified as amenable to skipping exons 44, 45, 51 or 53, other skippable, nonsense, and other mutations. Associations between genotype class and 1-year changes in North Star Ambulatory Assessment total score (ΔNSAA) and in 10-meter walk/run velocity (Δ10MWR) were studied in each data source with and without adjustment for baseline prognostic factors. RESULTS: The studied genotype classes accounted for approximately 2% of variation in ΔNSAA outcomes after 12 months, whereas other prognostic factors explained >30% of variation in large data sources. Based on a meta-analysis across all data sources, pooled effect estimates for the studied skip-amenable mutation classes were all small in magnitude (<2 units in ΔNSAA total score in 1-year follow up), smaller than clinically important differences in NSAA, and were precisely estimated with standard errors <1 unit after adjusting for non-genotypic prognostic factors. DISCUSSION: These findings suggest viability of trial designs incorporating genotypically mixed or unmatched controls for up to 12 months in duration for motor function outcomes, which would ease recruitment challenges and reduce numbers of patients assigned to placebos. Such trial designs, including multi-genotype platform trials and hybrid designs, should ensure baseline balance between treatment and control groups for the most important prognostic factors, while accounting for small remaining genotype effects quantified in the present study

Real-world and natural history data for drug evaluation in Duchenne muscular dystrophy: suitability of the North Star Ambulatory Assessment for comparisons with external controls

Using external controls based on real-world or natural history data (RWD/NHD) for drug evaluations in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is appealing given the challenges of enrolling placebo-controlled trials, especially for multi-year trials. Comparisons to external controls, however, face risks of bias due to differences in outcomes between trial and RWD/NHD settings. To assess this bias empirically, we conducted a multi-institution study comparing mean 48-week changes in North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) total score between trial placebo arms and RWD/NHD sources, with and without adjustment for baseline prognostic factors. Analyses used data from three placebo arms (235 48-week intervals, N = 235 patients) and three RWD/NHD sources (348 intervals, N = 202 patients). Differences in mean ΔNSAA between placebo arms and RWD/NHD sources were small before adjustment (-1.2 units, 95% CI: [-2.0 -0.5]) and were attenuated and no longer statistically significant after adjustment (0.1 units (95% CI: [-0.6, 0.8]). Results were similar whether adjusting using multivariable regression or propensity score matching. This consistency in ΔNSAA between trial placebo arms and RWD/NHD sources accords with prior findings for the six-minute walk distance, provides a well-validated framework for baseline adjustment of prognostic factors, and supports the suitability of RWD/NHD external controls for drug evaluations in ambulatory DMD

Mediation Analysis in Understanding Mechanism of Alzheimer’s Disease Risk

Although studies often show reduced risk of dementia with late-life cognitive activity, concerns about residual confounding and reverse causation cast doubt on these findings. In Chapter 1 of this dissertation, we review epidemiologic studies of cognitive activity and incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and all-cause dementia, and conduct a bias analysis that indicates the observed inverse associations are likely robust to unmeasured confounding, and probably only partially explained by reverse causation. While pursuing enjoyable cognitive activities may reduce dementia risk, better characterization of the type, duration, and timing of activity associated with late-life cognitive benefit is needed to develop recommendations applicable over the lifecourse. The apolipoprotein episilon4 allele (APOE e4) is the most well established genetic risk factor for AD, and is also a risk factor for cerebrovascular disease (CVD). In Chapter 2, we use the counterfactual approach to mediation analysis to investigate the degree to which the negative effect on cognition of the e4 allele is attributable to its effects on CVD. Using neuroimaging and neuropsychological data from approximately 4,000 participants of the population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility–Reykjavik Study, we found that 9% of the e4 effect on cognition was jointly mediated by white matter lesion volume and cerebral microbleeds (CMBs). While our finding that the e4 effect largely operates through non-vascular pathways aligns with previous research and present understanding of the action of apoE in AD and CVD pathogenesis, our study is the first to show a small effect specifically via markers of CVD pathology. In Chapter 3, we investigate the role of CMBs further using the newly developed four-way decomposition approach. We found that when comparing e4 heterozygotes to e4 non-carriers, the e4 effect on memory was independent of CMBs. By contrast, when comparing e4 homozygotes to e4 heterozygotes, the e4 effect on memory was attributable to interaction between the effects of e4 alleles and CMBs, perhaps suggesting a greater vascular contribution for these individuals. Similar analyses in other population-based studies will be needed to confirm these findings and further elucidate the contributions of CMBs and CVD to the e4 effect on cognition.Epidemiolog

Interpretation of epidemiologic studies very often lacked adequate consideration of confounding

Confounding bias is a most pervasive threat to validity of observational epidemiologic research. We assessed whether authors of observational epidemiologic studies consider confounding bias when interpreting the findings.; We randomly selected 120 cohort or case-control studies published in 2011 and 2012 by the general medical, epidemiologic, and specialty journals with the highest impact factors. We used Web of Science to assess citation metrics through January 2017.; Sixty-eight studies (56.7%, 95% confidence interval: 47.8-65.5%) mentioned "confounding" in the Abstract or Discussion sections, another 20 (16.7%; 10.0-23.3%) alluded to it, and there was no mention or allusion at all in 32 studies (26.7%; 18.8-34.6%). Authors often acknowledged that for specific confounders, there was no adjustment (34 studies; 28.3%) or deem it possible or likely that confounding affected their main findings (29 studies; 24.2%). However, only two studies (1.7%; 0-4.0%) specifically used the words "caution" or "cautious" for the interpretation because of confounding-related reasons and eventually only four studies (3.3%; 0.1-6.5%) had limitations related to confounding or any other bias in their Conclusions. Studies mentioning that the findings were possibly or likely affected by confounding were more frequently cited than studies with a statement that findings were unlikely affected (median 6.3 vs. 4.0 citations per year, P = 0.04).; Many observational studies lack satisfactory discussion of confounding bias. Even when confounding bias is mentioned, authors are typically confident that it is rather irrelevant to their findings and they rarely call for cautious interpretation. More careful acknowledgment of possible impact of confounding is not associated with lower citation impact

Assessing patient preferences for treatment decisions for new direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapies for chronic hepatitis C virus infections

Introduction: The new direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are able to effectively treat chronic hepatitis C (CHC). This study elicited the preferences of CHC patients for treatment attributes of new DAAs. Methods: An online discrete choice experiment survey was designed to collect data from adult CHC patients in the USA, UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy. Patients were asked to choose from alternative hypothetical DAA options, defined by differing levels of nine attributes [i.e., treatment duration, tablet count and packaging, cure rate, required office visits when on treatment, modifications to statins or to proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), and risks of diarrhea, headache and nausea]. Logistic regression was used to assess preference for the treatment options. Results: A total of 328 patients with CHC completed the survey (USA, n = 227; European countries, n = 101), with a mean age of 47.7 years (SD = 14.4) and an average 11.2 years since CHC diagnosis; 51% of patients were female. More than half (60%) of the patients had treatment for CHC. Patients significantly preferred a DAA regimen with higher cure rate, shorter treatment duration, lower risks of diarrhea, headache, and nausea (all p < 0.001), reduced need for office visits when on treatment (p = 0.044), and without requiring dose reduction or timing change in PPIs (p = 0.032). Tablet counts were not found to be statistically significant. Conclusion: Given the overall high cure rates of new DAAs, CHC patients' preferences for therapy may be influenced by treatment attributes other than cure rates and tolerability. Treatments that are more convenient and require less disruption to their daily life (e.g., shorter treatment duration, no modification in PPI use, and fewer office visits when on treatment) are important to patients with CHC and should be considered when making treatment decisions

Categorising trajectories and individual item changes of the North Star Ambulatory Assessment in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Functional variability among boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is well recognised and complicates interpretation of clinical studies. We hypothesised that boys with DMD could be clustered into groups sharing similar trajectories of ambulatory function over time, as measured by the North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) total score. We also explored associations with other variables such as age, functional abilities, and genotype. Using the NorthStar Clinical Network database, 395 patients with >1 NSAA assessment were identified. We utilised latent class trajectory analysis of longitudinal NSAA scores, which produced evidence for at least four clusters of boys sharing similar trajectories versus age in decreasing order of clinical severity: 25% of the boys were in cluster 1 (NSAA falling to ≤ 5 at age ~10y), 35% were in cluster 2 (NSAA ≤ 5 ~12y), 21% in were cluster 3 (NSAA≤ 5 ~14y), and 19% in cluster 4 (NSAA > 5 up to 15y). Mean ages at diagnosis of DMD were similar across clusters (4.2, 3.9, 4.3, and 4.8y, respectively). However, at the first NSAA assessment, a significant (p<0.05) association was observed between earlier declining clusters and younger age, worse NSAA, slower rise from supine, slower 10 metre walk/run times, and younger age of steroid initiation. In order to assess the probability of observing complete loss of function for individual NSAA items, we examined the proportion of patients who shifted from a score of 1 or 2 at baseline to a score of 0. We also assessed the probability of gain of function using the inverse assessment and stratified the probability of deterioration, improvement-or static behavior-by age ranges and using baseline functional status. Using this tool, our study provides a comprehensive assessment of the NSAA in a large population of patients with DMD and, for the first time, describes discrete clusters of disease progression; this will be invaluable for future DMD clinical trial design and interpretation of findings