Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change

Can others learn from China's remarkable growth rate? We explore some indirect determinants of Chinas growth success including the degree of openness, institutional change and sectoral change, based on a cross-province dataset. Our methodology is the informal growth regression, which permits the introduction of some explanatory variables that represent the underlying as well as the proximate causes of growth. We first address the problem of model uncertainty by adopting two approaches to model selection, Bayesian Model Averaging and the automated General-to-Specific approach, to consider a wide range of candidate predictors of growth. Then variables flagged as being important by these procedures are used in formulating our models, in which the contribution of factors behind the proximate determinants are examined using panel data system GMM. All three forms of structural change - relative expansion of the trade sector, of the private sector, and of the non-agricultural sector - are found to raise the growth rate. Moreover, structural change in all three dimensions was rapid over the study period. Each change primarily represents an improvement in the efficiency of the economy, moving it towards its production frontier. We conclude that such improvements in productive efficiency have been an important part of the explanation for China's fast growth. --Economic growth,Structural change,Openness,Institutional change,China

An Empirical Analysis of Income Inequality between a Minority and the Majority in Urban China: The Case of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

Based on the urban survey data of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in 2006, this paper studies the impact of ethnic characteristics on the income determination mechanism in the same economic region. Using the decomposition methods of Blinder and Oaxaca, Fields, and Morduch and Sicular, we analyze income gap between employed Hui and Han as well as income inequality within the two ethnic groups. The main conclusions are, first, that there is almost no income gap between Han and Hui in Ningxia. But different ethnic characteristics have effects on the income determination mechanism. Ethnic factors such as religion and social capital have no obvious effect on the income determination.Minority, Majority, Income Inequality

Temporary and Persistent Poverty among Ethnic Minorities and the Majority in Rural China

Poverty among ethnic minorities and the majority in rural China for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002 is investigated taking a dynamic view and using a large sample covering 22 provinces. Based on the National Bureau of Statistics' low income line, almost one-third of the ethnic minorities experienced poverty during the three years studied while the corresponding proportion among the ethnic majority was only about half as high. Still, by far most of the poor in rural China belong to the ethnic majority. The relatively high poverty rates for ethnic minorities in rural China are found to be due to higher rates of entry than for the majority, while differences in exit rates across ethnicities are few. To a large extent, ethnic poverty differences can be attributed to differences in location together with temporary and persistent poverty in rural China having a very clear spatial character. Poverty is concentrated to the western region and villages with low average income. Determinants of persistent and temporary poverty in rural China differ due to location as well as household characteristics.ethnic minorities, poverty, China

Rank, Income and Income Inequality in Urban China

While some workers in China attain senior professional level and senior cadre level status (Chuzhang and above), others attain middle rank including middle rank of professional and cadre (Kezhang). This aspect of the Chinese labor force has attracted surprisingly little attention in the literature, a fact which this paper aims to rectify. We define various segments of the urban population in work-active ages and use data from the Chinese Income Project (CHIP) covering eastern, central and western China for 1995 and 2002. For 2002, persons of high rank make up 3 percent and persons of middle rank make up 14 percent of persons in work-active ages. Factors that affect a person's likelihood of having high or middle rank are investigated by estimating a multinomial probit model. We find that education, age and gender strongly affect the probability of being employed as a worker of high rank. There is relatively little income inequality among workers of high rank as well as among workers of middle rank. Mean income and household wealth per capita of highly-ranked workers developed more favorably than for other segments of the population studied, and personal income is more polarized by segment in 2002 than in 1995. Workers of high rank, and to a lesser degree, workers of middle rank, are among the winners in economic terms while the increasingly large category of non-workers are the losers. Rates of return to education have increased but income function analysis indicates that this provides only a partial explanation for the increased favorable income situation for workers of high and middle ranks.income inequality, income, rank, China

The effect of import competition on firm productivity and innovation: does the distance to technology frontier matter?

How does foreign competition affect growth and innovation in China? Using our unique measures of proximity of Chinese firms and industries to the world technology frontier, we find that despite vast sectoral heterogeneity, Chinese manufacturing industries have undergone rapid technological upgrading over the period of 2000–06. The distance to the world production frontier of firms and industries plays an important role in shaping the nexus between the competition pressure from foreign imports and domestic firms' growth and innovation behaviour. Our results support the theoretical predictions of Aghion et al. (2005, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp. 701–728) that import competition stimulates the domestic firms' productivity growth and R&D expenditure if firms and their industries are close to the world frontier, but discourages such incentives for laggard firms and industries. The two forces highlighted by the model operate for imports under the ordinary-trade regime, for collective and private firms, and for imports originated from high-income countries. Our findings are robust after controlling the influence of foreign investment, the reverse causality of regressors and the short-term business cycle fluctuations

Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms

This paper addresses the hotly-debated question: do Chinese firms overinvest? A firm-level dataset of 100,000 firms over the period of 2000-07 is employed for this purpose. We initially calculate measures of investment efficiency, which is typically negatively associated with overinvestment. Despite wide disparities across various ownership groups, industries and regions, we find that corporate investment in China has become increasingly efficient over time. However, based on direct measures of overinvestment that we subsequently calculate, we find evidence of overinvestment for all types of firms, even in the most efficient and most profitable private sector. We find that the free cash flow hypothesis provides a good explanation for China‟s overinvestment, especially for the private sector, while in the state sector, overinvestment is attributable to the poor screening and monitoring of enterprises by banks.Overinvestment; Investment efficiency; Free cash flow; Debt; China

Investment and financing constraints in China: does working capital management make a difference?

We use a panel of over 120,000 Chinese firms of different ownership types over the period 2000-2007 to analyze the linkages between investment in fixed and working capital and financing constraints. We find that those firms characterized by high working capital display high sensitivities of investment in working capital to cash flow (WKS) and low sensitivities of investment in fixed capital to cash flow (FKS). We then construct and analyze firm-level FKS and WKS measures and find that, despite severe external financing constraints, those firms with low FKS and high WKS exhibit the highest fixed investment rates. This suggests that good working capital management may help firms to alleviate the effects of financing constraints on fixed investment.Investment; Cash flow; Financing constraints; Working capital

Rank, income and income inequality in urban China

While some workers in China attain senior professional level and senior cadre level status (Chuzhang and above), others attain middle rank including middle rank of professional and cadre (Kezhang). This aspect of the Chinese labor force has attracted surprisingly little attention in the literature, a fact which this paper aims to rectify. We define various segments of the urban population in work-active ages and use data from the Chinese Income Project (CHIP) covering eastern, central and western China for 1995 and 2002. For 2002, persons of high rank make up 3 percent and persons of middle rank make up 14 percent of persons in work-active ages. Factors that affect a person's likelihood of having high or middle rank are investigated by estimating a multinomial probit model. We find that education, age and gender strongly affect the probability of being employed as a worker of high rank. There is relatively little income inequality among workers of high rank as well as among workers of middle rank. Mean income and household wealth per capita of highly-ranked workers developed more favorably than for other segments of the population studied, and personal income is more polarized by segment in 2002 than in 1995. Workers of high rank, and to a lesser degree, workers of middle rank, are among the winners in economic terms while the increasingly large category of non-workers are the losers. Rates of return to education have increased but income function analysis indicates that this provides only a partial explanation for the increased favorable income situation for workers of high and middle ranks

New light on China's rural elites

This paper analyses political elites, economic elites, hybrid elite households and non-elite households in rural China using household data for 1995 and 2002. We seek to understand the determinants of belonging to each of the three elite categories. We find that education and military experience positively affect the probability of being a political elite. The probability of becoming an economic elite is linked to the age of the head of household and to the income level of the county, indicating that opportunities to become an economic elite have increased over time, but in a spatially uneven way.We also investigate disparities in household per capita income as well as in household per capita wealth. Asia Market Transition Theory, we find that the relationship between education and the household's economic status became stronger from 1995 to 2002. This theory also predicts that payoffs from belonging to the political elite decrease during transition towards market economy. Our results show that in the richest counties in 2002, the economic gain from being a political elite household was higher than elsewhere and higher than in high-income counties observed in 1995. We also found that although elite households on average have a better economic situation than non-elite households, income inequality and household wealth inequality in rural China would decrease only marginally if such disparities were to vanish. In contrast the spatial dimension is much more important for income inequality and for wealth inequality in rural China

Unemployment and the rising number of non-workers in urban China: Causes and distributional consequences

Chapter from: 'Rising Inequality in China: Challenge to a Harmonious Society', edited by Shi Li, Hiroshi Sato and Terry Sicular