¿Por qué poca desigualdad fomenta el crecimiento: el ahorro y la inversión de los pobres

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se tratan las maneras en que los acontecimientos macroeconómicos pueden presionar a los bancos y, en casos extremos, conducir a crisis bancarias. Esto puede ocurrir de muchas maneras y no se trata ningún mecanismo específico. Estas causas macroeconómicas de la vulnerabilidad y las crisis de los bancos tienen implicaciones importantes para los regímenes regulatorios y para la política macroeconómica misma. Buena parte del análisis hace hincapié en la necesidad de fijar la política monetaria teniendo en mente la situación del sistema bancario nacional.

Lewis through a looking glass : public sector employment, rent-seeking, and economic growth

This paper argues that the labor transfer process outlined by the Lewis model (1954) can give rise to surplus labour - in the sense than the marginal product of labour is less that the wage - in the public part of the modern sector and that this may deprive the modern sector of its dynamism. Moreover, creating sheltered employment tends to be self-perpetuating. It creates and consolidates vested interests that seek to perpetuate the protected jobs. In the inverse of the Lewis model, the extent of surplus labour increases, rather than diminishes, over time.Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

The political economy of formal sector pay and employment in developing countries

Domestic labor market outcomes influence the direction and magnitude of the flow of international migration. When wages are low and jobs are scarce, workers tend to migrate to environments where jobs are available at higher wages. But as labor demand grows, a labor-exporting country may become a net labor importer. Such a"migration transition"- already much in evidence in East and Southeast Asian countries and beginning for skilled workers in India - is analogous to the demographic transition. The process of political economy described by the authors affects the level and growth of wages and of formal sector emmployment. So it is important for policymakers concerned about migration to high-income countries to take it into account. An efficient, flexible, responsive labormarket contributes to growth by creating an appropriate economic environment. In this respect, labor policy is like macroeconomic and trade policy. Unlike the accumulation of physical and human capital and technical progress, a well-functioning labor market is not itself a source of economic growth. Yet labor market pathologies, like macroeconomic mismanagement, can be extremely costly, severely constraining growth of output and employment and increasing inequality. Similarly, failure to adequately address the labor-market aspects of policy reform can result in the failure of other dimensions of reform. The smooth functioning of the labor market feeds on itself, enhancing the credibility of both workers and the elite. Conversely, poor labor market performance can also be self-reinforcing. Attempts to reform the labor market feeds on itself, enhancing the credibility of both workers and the elite. The payoff on labor reform can be high for both groups. The challenge is to find mechanisms whereby the credibility of both groups can be bolstered.Labor Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Health Economics&Finance,Labor Standards

Human capital accumulation in post-Green Revolution Pakistan: some preliminary results

PRIFPRI

Human Capital Accumulation in Post Green Revolution Rural Pakistan: A Progress Report (The Distinguishedl Lecture)

Two years ago at this conference I presented some preliminary results from a large micro-economic research project analysing the detenninants and consequences of human capital accumulation in rural Pakistan. At that time the entry, cleaning and evaluation of the data, generated by a specially designed rural household and school survey, had just been completed and the first phase of the econometric work programme had barely begun. Since then the research team has made substantial progress on the analytic work programme. This paper is a report on that progress. The research project on which I am reporting was designed to be relevant to important education and rural development policy issues. In my previous paper I noted that, despite productivity enhancing technological change, research based on large special purpose micro data sets remains a time intensive activity. I referred to the resulting tension between the researchers' desire to satisfy the policy makers' urgent need for findings and the researchers' scholarly commitment to sound analysis. I suggested that intennediate outputs can help resolve the tension though they then are subject to the caveat of being open to refinement and revision. I am greatly relieved to inform you that none of the results I report today contradict results reported in my previous paper. Some of what I report are, from the research team's perspective "final", while others are from work in progress and, therefore, subject to revision

Why Low Inequality Spurs Growth: Savings and Investment by the Poor

This paper discusses the ways in which macroeconomic developments can put stress on banks, and in extreme cases lead to banking crises. There are many ways in which this can occur, and no specific mechanism is endorsed. These macroeconomic causes of bank vulnerability and crisis have important implications for regulatory regimes, and for macroeconomic policy itself. Much of the discussion emphasizes the need to set monetary policy with an eye on the state of the domestic banking system

Education, productivity, and inequality: The East African natural experiment

Drawing on the experiences of Kenya and Tanzania, investigates how the expansion of the educational system affects productivity and the growth and distribution of income. Explains that Kenya and Tanzania, with their similar colonial background, natural resources, and economic structure, but markedly divergent educational policies, constitute a "natural experiment." Obtains measures of both reasoning ability and cognitive skill from surveys of representative samples of urban wage employees, allowing the development of a model to evaluate the human capital, screening, and credentialist interpretations of the link between educational attainment and earnings. Evaluates competing explanations for the steeper earnings-experience profile of the more educated. Estimates the effects of country differences in the quantity and quality education on output. Analyzes occupation as an important intermediary between education and earnings. Isolates the effect that institutional intervention by the government has on the wage structure. Measures the responsiveness of the wages of secondary and primary leavers to changes in their relative supply. Examines how levels of inequality change in response to changes in the composition of the workforce that result from educational expansion. Considers the equality of the distribution of school places in Kenya and Tanzania. Explores whether the expansion of secondary enrollment in Kenya, and the contrasting situation in Tanzania, have affected the degree of intergenerational mobility and the process of class formation. Examines methodological and policy issues in the cost-benefit analysis and in the financing of secondary education. Considers the implications of the findings for future research and the extent to which the results can be generalized to other countries and situations. A companion volume, Education, Work and Pay in East Africa, describes the economies and education systems of Kenya and Tanzania, and contains an annotated set of cross-tabulations and other summary statistics based on East African surveys. Knight is a Senior member of the research staff at the Institute of Economics and Statistics. Sabot is Professor of Economics at Williams College. Index