Peasant farmer behavior and cereal technologies: stochastic programming analysis in Niger

Peasant farmers in Sahelian West Africa adjust to rainfall uncertainties in the agricultural season by making decisions sequentially as a function of the evolving rainfall patterns. Understanding such flexibilities in farmer decision-making is central to technology introduction. This paper determines how sequential decision making under weather uncertainty affects the adoption and farm-level effects of cereal technologies in Niger. The study also draws policy implications for a price floor to arrest the substantial fall in cereal prices in good rainfall years when farmers have more grains to sell. The methodology used is discrete stochastic programming. The paper shows that the ability of peasant farmers to adapt cropping and resource management strategies to the rainfall patterns is the basis for their survival in this high-risk environment. Model results show that by (a) carrying a portfolio mix of varieties of varying maturities, and (b) making sequential decisions based upon rainfall expectations, farmers can adapt to the production uncertainties. Breeding programmes should therefore be diversified to develop not only early-maturing cultivars, but also improved intermediate and long-season varietie

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo

Investment in soil conservation in northern Ethiopia: The role of land tenure security and public programs

A double hurdle statistical analysis of 250 farms in the Tigray region of Ethiopia reveals different causal factors for soil conservation adoption versus intensity of use. Farmers' reasons for adopting soil conservation measures vary sharply between stone terraces and soil bunds. Long-term investments in stone terraces were associated with secure land tenure, labour availability, proximity to the farmstead and learning opportunities via the existence of local food-for-work (FFW) projects. By contrast, short-term investments in soil bunds were strongly linked to insecure land tenure and the absence of local food-for-work projects. Public conservation campaigns on private plots reduced adoption of both stone terraces and soil bunds. Whereas capacity factors largely influenced the adoption decision, expected returns carried more influence for the intensity of stone terrace adoption (measured as metres of terrace per hectare). More stone terracing was built where fertile but erodible silty soils in higher rainfall areas offered valuable yield benefits. Intensity of terracing was also greater in remote villages where limited off-farm employment opportunities reduced construction costs. These results highlight the importance of the right kind of public interventions. Direct public involvement in constructing soil conservation structures on private lands appears to undermine incentives for private conservation investments. When done on public lands, however, public conservation activities may encourage private soil conservation by example. Secure land tenure rights clearly reinforce private incentives to make long-term investments in soil conservatio

Reconciling food-for-work project feasibility with food aid targeting in Tigray, Ethiopia

Food-for-work (FFW) projects face the challenge of addressing three kinds of objectives: to feed hungry people, to build public works where needed, and to be feasible for prompt project implementation. In the debate over how to target FFW to the poorest of the poor, the last two program objectives are often overlooked. This research examines FFW afforestation and erosion-control programs in central Tigray, Ethiopia, during 1992-95 in order to understand how these sometimes conflicting objectives were reconciled. Statistical analyses examined the factors that influenced (1) in which villages FFW projects were located, (2) which households were deemed eligible to participate in FFW (in those villages having FFW projects), and (3) which eligible households elected to participate, and (4) how much time the participating households dedicated to FFW activities. Project feasibility outweighed the needs for food security or natural resource conservation in influencing whether an FFW project would be located in one of the 25 villages surveyed. In villages where FFW was available, anti-poverty targeting appears to be taking place, since smaller households with less land were more likely to be eligible to participate in FFW projects. But although the poor were likely to be eligible for FFW, some non-poor households were also eligible, which suggests that anti-poverty targeting was not efficient, Among households eligible for FFW, those that were relatively better off (larger families that did not lease outland) tended to participate and supply more days of FFW labor than the poorest households. The only households eligible for FFW which did not participate were headed mostly by elderly women and hence unable (rather than unwilling) to participate. Overall, anti-poverty targeting was sub-optimal but reasonable, considering that these resource conservation projects need to be located where labor and materials could be made available

Sustainable management of private and communal lands in northern Ethiopia

In this chapter, results of recent research conducted in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, which has experienced severe land degradation are synthesized. This paper highlights the technological and institutional factors determining the adoption of natural resource conservation at both the household and the community levels. Using 1995/96 data from 250 Tigray farm household interviews, the paper first examines private land management focusing on perception of soil erosion and its yield impact, profitability of soil conservation: the case of stone terraces and determinants of investment of soil conservation: the value of secure land tenure. Using 1998/99 data from a survey of 100 Tigray villages, the paper next investigates the management of communal lands (grazing lands and wood lots), emphasizing on engagement of the communities in collective natural resources (NRM) and effectiveness of collective NRM

Climatological analysis for hygrothermal performance evaluation: Mid-rise wood (Report to research consortium for wood and wood-hybrid mid-rise buildings)

This report discusses the selection of locations for the hygrothermal simulation task of the project on Mid-rise Wood Buildings and the determination of spray-rates and pressure differentials for the water penetration testing portion of the project.Peer reviewed: NoNRC publication: Ye

Effects of stone terraces on crop yields and farm profitability: Results of on-farm research in Tigray, northern Ethiopia

This study was conducted in Tigray, northern Ethiopia to determine the yield and farm profitability impact of stone terraces. Seventy terraced and 70 non-conserved plots were equally divided between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and faba beans (Vicia faba). Two quadrates each 8 m (86 ft2) were marked on each terraced plot: one just above the terrace (soil accumulation zone) and another one parallel to this but below the next upper terrace (soil loss zone). Only one quadrate (control zone) was marked on each of the non-conserved plots. Results indicate that (1) grain and straw yields for both crops were significantly higher in the soil accumulation zone than in the soil loss zone or in the non-terraced control plots; (2) grain and straw yields from the soil accumulation zone were more stable than those from control zone; (3) over a 30-yr planning horizone, stone terrace yielded a 50% rate of return, roughly equivalent to reported farmer discount in Ethiopia

Towards comprehensive approaches in assessing NRM impacts: What we know and what we need to know

This chapter synthesizes the conceptual methodological and empirical issues for evaluating the impacts of natural resource management (NRM) technology and policy interventions. The intention is to highlight the salient features raised across the chapters and offer some insights on the key lessons, policy conclusions, knowledge gaps, and areas that need further research. Main topics of discussion include the state of the art in NRM impact assessment; integration of resource and environmental impacts into economic impact assessment; what we need to know - areas for future research. This include subtopics - how does NRM affect ecosystem functions and services, indicators of ecosystem performance, how to enhance attribution of impacts, can we properly value non-market ecosystem services, can the economic surplus approach be extended for integrated assessment, what do we know about economy wide impacts, simple steps toward better impact assessments, and institutionalising NRM impact assessment