Does pay-for-performance improve patient outcomes in acute exacerbation of COPD admissions?

BACKGROUND: The COPD Best Practice Tariff (BPT) is a pay-for-performance scheme in England that incentivises review by a respiratory specialist within 24 hours of admission and completion of a list of key care components prior to discharge, known as a discharge bundle, for patients admitted with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD). We investigated whether the two components of the COPD BPT were associated with lower 30-day mortality and readmission in people discharged following AECOPD. METHODS: Longitudinal study of national audit data containing details of AECOPD admissions in England and Wales between 01 February 2017 and 13 September 2017. Data were linked with national admissions and mortality data. Mixed-effects logistic regression, using a random intercept for hospital to adjust for clustering of patients, was used to determine the relationship between the COPD BPT criteria (combined and separately) and 30-day mortality and readmission. Models were adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, length of stay, smoking status, Charlson comorbidity index, mental illness and requirement for oxygen or noninvasive ventilation during admission. RESULTS: 28 345 patients discharged from hospital following AECOPD were included. 37% of admissions conformed to the two COPD BPT criteria. No relationship was observed between BPT conforming admissions and 30-day mortality (OR: 1.09 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.29)) or readmissions (OR: 0.96 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.02)). No relationship was observed between either of the individual COPD BPT components and 30-day mortality or readmissions. However, a specialist review at any time during admission was associated with lower inpatient mortality (OR: 0.69 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.81)). CONCLUSION: Completion of the combined COPD BPT criteria does not appear associated with a reduction in 30-day mortality or readmission. However, specialist review was associated with reduced inpatient mortality. While it is difficult to argue that discharge bundles do not improve care, this analysis questions whether the pay-for-performance model improves mortality or readmissions

National clinical audit for hospitalised exacerbations of COPD

Introduction: Exacerbations of COPD requiring hospital admission are burdensome to patients and health services. Audit enables benchmarking performance between units and against national standards, and supports quality improvement. We summarise 23 years of UK audit for hospitalised COPD exacerbations to better understand which features of audit design have had most impact. / Method: Pilot audits were performed in 1997 and 2001, with national cross-sectional audits in 2003, 2008 and 2014. Continuous audit commenced in 2017. Overall, 96% of eligible units took part in cross-sectional audit, 86% in the most recent round of continuous audit. We synthesised data from eight rounds of national COPD audit. / Results: Clinical outcomes were observed to change at the same time as changes in delivery of care: length of stay halved from 8 to 4 days between 1997 and 2014, alongside wider availability of integrated care. Process indicators did not generally improve with sequential cross-sectional audit. Under continuous audit with quality improvement support, process indicators linked to financial incentives (early specialist review (55–66%) and provision of a discharge bundle (53–74%)) improved more rapidly than those not linked (availability of spirometry (40–46%) and timely noninvasive ventilation (21–24%)). / Conclusion: Careful piloting and engagement can result in successful roll-out of cross-sectional national audit in a high-burden disease. Audit outcome measures and process indicators may be affected by changes in care pathways. Sequential cross-sectional national audit alone was not generally accompanied by improvements in care. However, improvements in process indicators were seen when continuous audit was combined with quality improvement support and, in particular, financial incentives

National clinical audit for hospitalised exacerbations of COPD

Introduction: Exacerbations of COPD requiring hospital admission are burdensome to patients and health services. Audit enables benchmarking performance between units and against national standards, and supports quality improvement. We summarise 23 years of UK audit for hospitalised COPD exacerbations to better understand which features of audit design have had most impact. Method: Pilot audits were performed in 1997 and 2001, with national cross-sectional audits in 2003, 2008 and 2014. Continuous audit commenced in 2017. Overall, 96% of eligible units took part in cross-sectional audit, 86% in the most recent round of continuous audit. We synthesised data from eight rounds of national COPD audit. Results: Clinical outcomes were observed to change at the same time as changes in delivery of care: length of stay halved from 8 to 4 days between 1997 and 2014, alongside wider availability of integrated care. Process indicators did not generally improve with sequential cross-sectional audit. Under continuous audit with quality improvement support, process indicators linked to financial incentives (early specialist review (55-66%) and provision of a discharge bundle (53-74%)) improved more rapidly than those not linked (availability of spirometry (40-46%) and timely noninvasive ventilation (21-24%)). Conclusion: Careful piloting and engagement can result in successful roll-out of cross-sectional national audit in a high-burden disease. Audit outcome measures and process indicators may be affected by changes in care pathways. Sequential cross-sectional national audit alone was not generally accompanied by improvements in care. However, improvements in process indicators were seen when continuous audit was combined with quality improvement support and, in particular, financial incentives

Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor. METHODS: We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO). RESULTS: Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60). CONCLUSION: The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care

Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor. METHODS: We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO). RESULTS: Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60). CONCLUSION: The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care

Reference to the index of the correspondence of Walter Stone and Edmund Morris Miller, 1948 - 1964.

Edmund Morris Miller (1881-1964) scholar, Professor of Philosophy and Psychology and Librarian at the University of Tasmania, had extensive correspondence with Walter Stone, publisher and book collector of Sydney and publisher of Biblionews , between 1948 and 1964 about book collecting and Australian literature. Letters include references to J.K. Morris (d. 1958) ,Henry Kendall and Rev. Thornton Reed's thesis on Kendall, Fred. Bloomfield, Roderick Quinn, C.J. Brennan, W.E. Fitzhenry (editor of The Bulletin ), M. Gilmour and to The Tasmanian, Launceston's first newspaper (9). Morris Miller sometimes enclosed copies of his letters to others, including J.K. Morris (1951), and there are also letters from W.E. Fitzhenry of The Bulletin sent by Morris. Miller to Stone for his files

Low-redshift quasars in the SDSS Stripe 82-II. Associated companion galaxies and signature of star formation

We present optical spectroscopy of the close companions of 22 low-redshift (z < 0.5) quasars (QSO) selected from a larger sample of QSO in the SDSS Stripe82 region for which both the host galaxy and the large-scale environments have been investigated in our previous work. The new observations extend the number of QSO studied in our previous paper on close companion galaxies of 12 quasars. Our analysis here covers all 34 quasars from both this work and the previously published paper. We find that half of them (15 QSO; similar to 44 per cent) have at least one associated galaxy. Many (12 galaxies; similar to 67 per cent) of the associated companions exhibit [O II] 3727 angstrom emission line as signature of recent star formation. The star formation rate (SFR) of these galaxies is modest (median SFR similar to 4.3 M-circle dot yr(-1)). For eight QSO, we are also able to detect the starlight of the host galaxy from which three have a typical spectrum of a post-starburst galaxy. Our results suggest that quasars do not have a strong influence on the star formation of their companion galaxies

Verticalization of bacterial biofilms

Biofilms are communities of bacteria adhered to surfaces. Recently, biofilms of rod-shaped bacteria were observed at single-cell resolution and shown to develop from a disordered, two-dimensional layer of founder cells into a three-dimensional structure with a vertically-aligned core. Here, we elucidate the physical mechanism underpinning this transition using a combination of agent-based and continuum modeling. We find that verticalization proceeds through a series of localized mechanical instabilities on the cellular scale. For short cells, these instabilities are primarily triggered by cell division, whereas long cells are more likely to be peeled off the surface by nearby vertical cells, creating an "inverse domino effect". The interplay between cell growth and cell verticalization gives rise to an exotic mechanical state in which the effective surface pressure becomes constant throughout the growing core of the biofilm surface layer. This dynamical isobaricity determines the expansion speed of a biofilm cluster and thereby governs how cells access the third dimension. In particular, theory predicts that a longer average cell length yields more rapidly expanding, flatter biofilms. We experimentally show that such changes in biofilm development occur by exploiting chemicals that modulate cell length.Comment: Main text 10 pages, 4 figures; Supplementary Information 35 pages, 15 figure