Prospective Study of the World Aluminium Industry

A series of Industrial models have been developed by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) aiming at studying in detail the technological perspective of several energy intensive industries. This paper discusses one of such a simulation model for the aluminium industry at global, regional as well as national levels. Aluminium is the third abundant element in the earth¿s crust and the most abundant metallic element. It never occurs as a free element in nature. Aluminium is a material with wide range of applications, e.g. transport vehicles, construction, packaging industry, electronic production, household appliances, etc., and consequently the economic activities of these industrial sectors determine the overall demand for aluminium. The aluminium model simulates the technology evolution of the industry from 2000 to 2030, exploring the alternative development trends in energy consumption, emissions, technology, retrofitting options and trade. Several future technologies foreseen in the primary aluminium production are considered and projected in the model allowing different scenarios to illustrate the technology dynamics of the sector¿s future. Scrap recycling is one of the key components of the aluminium industry and is crucial to the sustainable development of the sector. The model, thus, also explores the possible perspective of scrap availability and recycling potentials. Furthermore, based on the demand and supply trend of aluminium, the model also analyses the evolution of bauxite mining and the alumina refining industry. The model is designed to be a flexible tool in accommodating policies to address different environmental issues such as GHG emissions, material use, and waste recycling. The aluminium industry of the European Union is given more detailed analysis to address the main environmental issues such as the GHG emissions.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

Techno-Economic Analysis of Bio-Alcohol Production in the EU. A Short Summary for Decision-Makers.

Abstract not availableJRC.J-Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (Seville

Capacity assessment of railway infrastructure: Tools, methodologies and policy relevance in the EU context

The transport sector is increasingly faced with several issues related to the rising of traffic demand such as congestion, energy consumption, noise, pollution, safety, etc.. Due to its low external and environmental costs, railway can be considered (together with inland waterways and short-sea-shipping) as a key factor for the sustainable development of a more competitive and resource-efficient transport system (European Commission, White Paper 2011). In order to reinforce the role of rail in European transport , there is a strong need of addressing the efficiency of the system and customers' satisfaction through targeted actions, i.e. rising reliability and quality of service. This becomes particularly pressing as many parts of the existing railway infrastructures are reaching their maximum capacity thus shrinking their capability to provide users and customers a higher or even adequate level of service. Taking also into account that transport demand forecasts for 2030 clearly show a marked increase of rail activity across the whole Europe, we aim to address the issue of rail congestion in the context of relevant policy questions: Is the actual rail Infrastructure really able to absorb forecasted traffic, without significant impacts on punctuality of the system? Would the already planned interventions on the European railway infrastructure guarantee an adequate available capacity and consequently adequate reliability and level of service? To which extent would the coveted competition in an open railway market be influenced by capacity scarcity, mainly during peak hours or along more profitable corridors? An accurate estimation of capacity of the rail network can help answer these questions, leading policy makers to better decisions and helping to minimize costs for users. In this context this report explores the issue of capacity scarcity and sets this issue in the context of other relevant policy issues (track access charges, cost/benefit and accessibility measures, maintenance programmes, freight services’ reliability, external, marginal congestion or scarcity cost for rail, impacts of climate changes, etc.), providing a methodological review of capacity and punctuality assessment procedures. To better explore the real applicability and the time and/or data constraints of each methodology, the study reports some practical applications to the European railway network. Finally in the last section the report discusses the topic from a modelling perspective, as the quantitative estimation of railway capacity constraints is a key issue in order to provide better support to transport policies at EU level.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Techno-Economic Analysis of Bio-Diesel Production in the EU. A Short Summary for Decision-Makers.

Abstract not availableJRC.J-Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (Seville

Recent Trends and Outlook of the Spanish Energy System

During the last decade the Spanish energy system has become more energy and carbon intensive, and more dependent on external energy resources. The regulation of the electricity market has significantly changed. Two scenarios for the 2030 time horizon are analysed with the POLES-Spain energy model. Under the baseline scenario, the main energy challenges persist even if the energy-GDP intensity reverses its increasing trend. According to a second scenario that assumes significant progress in energy efficiency and higher international energy prices, the energy system undergoes a transformation towards cleaner technologies and renewable energy resourcesJRC.J.2-The economics of climate change, energy and transpor

ANALYSIS OF THE IRAN OIL EMBARGO

This report analyses the macro-economic, sectoral, and energy effects of an Iranian oil embargo. Five scenarios are analysed reflecting various degrees of oil scarcity on the global market and different sizes of embargo coalitions. The report estimates the macro-economic impacts using the global general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The international oil and energy markets are assessed with the POLES model. This provides the impacts in prices and quantities in the international energy (oil) market. Impacts on trade flows regarding refined oil products are estimated with the OURSE model.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Energy Research Capacities in EU Member States

This report gives an overview of the energy research capacities in EU Member States. It is composed of a quantitative analysis of funding for energy research and an assessment of the institutional capacity in energy research policy making. The analysis shows that Member States award relatively little importance to energy research in general. While energy R&D priorities vary among Member States, shared priorities exist for some technologies among various countries. Due to the diverse institutional set-ups the exploitation of synergies remains challenging despite recent efforts for better coordination of national efforts.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

Economic analysis of selected climate impacts

Climate change damages the capital stock, affects economic production and the welfare of households in regions suffering the impact or that are economically linked with them. These economic effects have been quantified for seven climate impact categories: river floods, coastal floods, agriculture, energy supply, droughts, windstorms and human mortality. Due to the limited coverage of climate impacts, the assessment does not evaluate the full economic impacts of climate change in Europe. Human mortality from temperature extremes dominate the economic climate impacts, yet its contribution is strongly dependent on the monetary valuation of human lives. The magnitude of welfare losses in the Southern regions (Central Europe South and Southern Europe) is estimated to be several times larger compared to that in the North of Europe. Limiting warming to 2C would halve economic impacts compared to a 3C scenario, while achieving the stringent Paris target of 1.5C would lower welfare loss by 75%.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models

This report documents the JRC/IPTS modelling activities of the 2009 European Commission Communication "Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen", which establishes the EU's position in the Copenhagen negotiations. According to the POLES model, the estimated global direct abatement costs of an emission reduction scenario compatible with the EU 2 degrees target are ¿175 billion by 2020. The report also highlights the crucial importance of energy efficiency improvements in achieving the overall emission reduction targets. Finally, the analyses with the POLES and GEM-E3 models underline the fundamental role that a global carbon market can play in implementing climate policies in a cost-efficient way.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

A Comparability Analysis of Global Burden Sharing GHG Reduction Scenarios

The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, population growth, and the GHG emission trend in the recent past. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor