Pathophysiological Mechanisms of Severe Anaemia in Malawian Children

BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in African children. The aetiology is multi-factorial, but interventions have often targeted only one or a few causal factors, with limited success. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the contribution of different pathophysiological mechanisms (red cell production failure [RCPF], haemolysis and blood loss) to severe anaemia in Malawian children in whom etiological factors have been described previously. More complex associations between etiological factors and the mechanisms were explored using structural equation modelling. In 235 children with severe anaemia (haemoglobin<3.2 mMol/L [5.0 g/dl]) studied, RCPF, haemolysis and blood loss were found in 48.1%, 21.7% and 6.9%, respectively. The RCPF figure increased to 86% when a less stringent definition of RCPF was applied. RCPF was the most common mechanism in each of the major etiological subgroups (39.7-59.7%). Multiple aetiologies were common in children with severe anaemia. In the final model, nutritional and infectious factors, including malaria, were directly or indirectly associated with RCPF, but not with haemolysis. CONCLUSION: RCPF was the most common pathway leading to severe anaemia, from a variety of etiological factors, often found in combination. Unlike haemolysis or blood loss, RCPF is a defect that is likely to persist to a significant degree unless all of its contributing aetiologies are corrected. This provides a further explanation for the limited success of the single factor interventions that have commonly been applied to the prevention or treatment of severe anaemia. Our findings underline the need for a package of measures directed against all of the local aetiologies of this often fatal paediatric syndrome

Information use and plasticity in the reproductive decisions of malaria parasites

BACKGROUND: Investment in the production of transmissible stages (gametocytes) and their sex ratio are malaria parasite traits that underpin mosquito infectivity and are therefore central to epidemiology. Malaria parasites adjust their levels of investment into gametocytes and sex ratio in response to changes in the in-host environment (including red blood cell resource availability, host immune responses, competition from con-specific genotypes in mixed infections, and drug treatment). This plasticity appears to be adaptive (strategic) because parasites prioritize investment (in sexual versus asexual stages and male versus female stages) in manners predicted to maximize fitness. However, the information, or ‘cues’ that parasites use to detect environmental changes and make appropriate decisions about investment into gametocytes and their sex ratio are unknown. METHODS: Single genotype Plasmodium chabaudi infections were exposed to ‘cue’ treatments consisting of intact or lysed uninfected red blood cells, lysed parasitized RBCs of the same clone or an unrelated clone, and an unmanipulated control. Infection dynamics (proportion of reticulocytes, red blood cell and asexual stage parasite densities) were monitored, and changes in gametocyte investment and sex ratio in response to cue treatments, applied either pre- or post-peak of infection were examined. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: A significant reduction in gametocyte density was observed in response to the presence of lysed parasite material and a borderline significant increase in sex ratio (proportion of male gametocytes) upon exposure to lysed red blood cells (both uninfected and infected) was observed. Furthermore, the changes in gametocyte density and sex ratio in response to these cues depend on the age of infection. Demonstrating that variation in gametocyte investment and sex ratio observed during infections are a result of parasite strategies (rather than the footprint of host physiology), provides a foundation to investigate the fitness consequences of plasticity and explore whether drugs could be developed to trick parasites into making suboptimal decisions

An evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of booklet-based self-management of dizziness in primary care, with and without expert telephone support

Background: dizziness is a very common symptom that often leads to reduced quality of life, anxiety and emotional distress, loss of fitness, lack of confidence in balance, unsteadiness and an increased risk of falling. Most dizzy patients are managed in primary care by reassurance and medication to suppress symptoms. Trials have shown that chronic dizziness can be treated effectively in primary care using a self-help booklet to teach patients vestibular rehabilitation exercises that promote neurological adaptation and skill and confidence in balance. However, brief support from a trained nurse was provided in these trials, and this model of managing dizzy patients has not been taken up due to a lack of skills and resources in primary care. The aim of this trial is to evaluate two new alternative models of delivery that may be more feasible and cost-effective.Methods/Design: in a single blind two-centre pragmatic controlled trial, we will randomise 330 patients from 30 practices to a) self-help booklet with telephone support from a vestibular therapist, b) self-help booklet alone, c) routine medical care. Symptoms, disability, handicap and quality of life will be assessed by validated questionnaires administered by post at baseline, immediately post-treatment (3 months), and at one year follow-up. The study is powered to test our primary hypothesis, that the self-help booklet with telephone support will be more effective than routine care. We will also explore the effectiveness of the booklet without any support, and calculate the costs of treatment in each arm.Discussion: if our trial indicates that patients can cost-effectively manage their dizziness in primary care, then it can be easily rolled out to relieve the symptoms of the many patients in primary care who currently have chronic, untreated, disabling dizziness. Treatment in primary care may reduce the development of psychological and physical sequelae that cause handicap and require treatment. There is also the potential to reduce the cost to the NHS of treating dizziness by reducing demand for referral to secondary care for specialist assessment and treatment.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov trial registration ID number: NCT0073279

Uncertainty in environmentally conscious decision making: beer or wine?

Purpose:Life cycle assessment (LCA) is being used increasingly in decision support situations. In actual cases, the sources of uncertainty are easily hidden in the complexity. Methods for taking uncertainty into account are recommended by LCA guidelines, but actual application remains rare. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the sources of uncertainty in a practical simple selection case wherein a customer makes a decision between beer and wine in a restaurant, considering the selected criteria and the given information. The uncertainty in LCA results is connected to the broader scope of decision analysis.Methods:Life cycle inventories were collected for beer and wine production from existing literature. The functional unit was chosen to be one serving of alcohol: beer or wine. For illustrative purposes, only the global warming potential indicator was included in the LCA through carbon footprint (CF). Probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied to the CF system using Monte Carlo simulation. Water footprint was also roughly considered. In addition, three non-environmental indicators were included in the decision: weight control, price, and taste. The comparison between the two products was constructed as a multiple-criteria decision analytical problem.Results and discussion:The results indicated that beer had, on average, a higher CF value than wine did. However, the difference was not significant, and within the uncertainty range, also the opposite conclusion was possible. The ratio of wine to beer CF was dominated by the uncertainty in the N2O emissions of wine production. When all of the decision criteria were included, the level of uncertainty prevented robust overall conclusions about preference for beer or wine. However, depending on the utility differences assigned to subjective indicators, there existed also cases wherein decisions could be made at a 10 % risk level regardless of high overall uncertainty.Conclusions:In many cases, the uncertainties of LCA are dwarfed by the overall uncertainty of the decision situation. However, as shown by our example, in many cases, reasonable decisions can be made in spite of high uncertainties. The uncertainties of single LCA indicators should be considered in relation to the decision-making problem, which depends on the uncertainty of LCA indicators but also significantly on the weighting of the indicators and the related uncertainty. Successful decision making depends on both the magnitude of uncertainty and the differences in expected utility value between alternatives. More attention should be paid to uncertainty analysis considering the weighting factors