Circumstellar discs: What will be next?

This prospective chapter gives our view on the evolution of the study of circumstellar discs within the next 20 years from both observational and theoretical sides. We first present the expected improvements in our knowledge of protoplanetary discs as for their masses, sizes, chemistry, the presence of planets as well as the evolutionary processes shaping these discs. We then explore the older debris disc stage and explain what will be learnt concerning their birth, the intrinsic links between these discs and planets, the hot dust and the gas detected around main sequence stars as well as discs around white dwarfs.Comment: invited review; comments welcome (32 pages

Toward a Theory of Child Well-Being

Assuring the well-being of children has emerged over the past several decades as an important goal for health and social policymakers. Although the concept of child well-being has been operationalized and measured in different ways by different child-serving entities, there are few unifying theories that could undergird and inform these various conceptual and measurement efforts. In this paper, we attempt to construct a theory of child well-being. We first review the social and policy history of the concept of child well-being, and briefly review its measurement based on these conceptualizations. We then examine three types of theories of well-being extant in philosophy - mental states theories, desire-based theories and needs-based theories - and investigate their suitability to serve as prototypes of a theory of child well-being. We develop a constraint that child well-being is important in and of itself and not merely as a way station to future adult well-being (we call this a non-reduction constraint). Using this constraint, we identify the limitations of each of the three sets of theories to serve as a basis for a theory of child well-being. Based on a developmentalist approach, we then articulate a theory of child well-being that contains two conditions. First, a child's stage-appropriate capacities that equip her for successful adulthood, given her environment; and, second, an engagement with the world in child-appropriate ways. We conclude by reviewing seven implications of this theoretical approach for the measurement of child well-being. Key Words Child well-being, philosophy, social policy, child developmentNoneThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-014-0665-

Prediction of uncomplicated pregnancies in obese women: A prospective multicentre study

BACKGROUND: All obese pregnant women are considered at equal high risk with respect to complications in pregnancy and birth, and are commonly managed through resource-intensive care pathways. However, the identification of maternal characteristics associated with normal pregnancy outcomes could assist in the management of these pregnancies. The present study aims to identify the factors associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth in obese women, and to assess their predictive performance. METHODS: Data form obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) with singleton pregnancies included in the UPBEAT trial were used in this analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic, clinical and biochemical factors at 15 +0 to 18 +6 weeks' gestation associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth, defined as delivery of a term live-born infant without antenatal or labour complications. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Internal validation and calibration were also performed. Women were divided into fifths of risk and pregnancy outcomes were compared between groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated using the upper fifth as the positive screening group. RESULTS: Amongst 1409 participants (BMI 36.4, SD 4.8 kg/m 2 ), the prevalence of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth was 36% (505/1409). Multiparity and increased plasma adiponectin, maternal age, systolic blood pressure and HbA1c were independently associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. These factors achieved an AUROC of 0.72 (0.68-0.76) and the model was well calibrated. Prevalence of gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and other hypertensive disorders, preterm birth, and postpartum haemorrhage decreased whereas spontaneous vaginal delivery increased across the fifths of increasing predicted risk of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 38%, 89%, 63% and 74%, respectively. A simpler model including clinical factors only (no biomarkers) achieved an AUROC of 0.68 (0.65-0.71), with sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 31%, 86%, 56% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical factors and biomarkers can be used to help stratify pregnancy and delivery risk amongst obese pregnant women. Further studies are needed to explore alternative pathways of care for obese women demonstrating different risk profiles for uncomplicated pregnancy and birth

Testing for an effect of a mindfulness induction on child executive functions

Several sessions of mindfulness practice can exert positive gains for child executive functions (EF); however, the evidence for effects of a mindfulness induction, on EF for adults, is mixed and this effect has not been tested in children. The immediate effect of an age appropriate 3-min mindfulness induction on EF of children aged 4–7 years was tested. Participants (N = 156) were randomly assigned to a mindfulness induction or dot-to-dot activity comparison group before completing four measures of EF. A composite score for EF was calculated from summed z scores of the four EF measures. A difference at baseline in behavioural difficulties between the mindfulness induction and comparison group meant that data was analysed using a hierarchical regression. The mindfulness induction resulted in higher average performance for the composite EF score (M = 0.12) compared to the comparison group (M = − 0.05). Behavioural difficulties significantly predicted 5.3% of the variance in EF performance but participation in the mindfulness or comparison induction did not significantly affect EF. The non-significant effect of a mindfulness induction to exert immediate effects on EF fits within broader evidence reporting mixed effects when similar experimental designs have been used with adults. The findings are discussed with consideration of the extent to which methodological differences may account for these mixed effects and how mindfulness inductions fit within broader theoretical and empirical understanding of the effects of mindfulness on EF

Influence of antenatal physical exercise on haemodynamics in pregnant women: a flexible randomisation approach

Background: Normal pregnancy is associated with marked changes in haemodynamic function, however theinfluence and potential benefits of antenatal physical exercise at different stages of pregnancy and postpartumremain unclear. The aim of this study was therefore to characterise the influence of regular physical exercise onhaemodynamic variables at different stages of pregnancy and also in the postpartum period.Methods: Fifty healthy pregnant women were recruited and randomly assigned (2 × 2 × 2 design) to a land orwater-based exercise group or a control group. Exercising groups attended weekly classes from the 20th week ofpregnancy onwards. Haemodynamic assessments (heart rate, cardiac output, stroke volume, total peripheralresistance, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and end diastolic index) were performed using the Task Forcehaemodynamic monitor at 12–16, 26–28, 34–36 and 12 weeks following birth, during a protocol including posturalmanoeurvres (supine and standing) and light exercise.Results: In response to an acute bout of exercise in the postpartum period, stroke volume and end diastolic indexwere greater in the exercise group than the non-exercising control group (p = 0.041 and p = 0.028 respectively).Total peripheral resistance and diastolic blood pressure were also lower (p = 0.015 and p = 0.007, respectively) in theexercise group. Diastolic blood pressure was lower in the exercise group during the second trimester (p = 0.030).Conclusions: Antenatal exercise does not appear to substantially alter maternal physiology with advancinggestation, speculating that the already vast changes in maternal physiology mask the influences of antenatalexercise, however it does appear to result in an improvement in a woman’s haemodynamic function (enhancedventricular ejection performance and reduced blood pressure) following the end of pregnancy

Prediction of uncomplicated pregnancies in obese women: a prospective multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: All obese pregnant women are considered at equal high risk with respect to complications in pregnancy and birth, and are commonly managed through resource-intensive care pathways. However, the identification of maternal characteristics associated with normal pregnancy outcomes could assist in the management of these pregnancies. The present study aims to identify the factors associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth in obese women, and to assess their predictive performance. METHODS: Data form obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) with singleton pregnancies included in the UPBEAT trial were used in this analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic, clinical and biochemical factors at 15+0 to 18+6 weeks' gestation associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth, defined as delivery of a term live-born infant without antenatal or labour complications. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Internal validation and calibration were also performed. Women were divided into fifths of risk and pregnancy outcomes were compared between groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated using the upper fifth as the positive screening group. RESULTS: Amongst 1409 participants (BMI 36.4, SD 4.8 kg/m2), the prevalence of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth was 36% (505/1409). Multiparity and increased plasma adiponectin, maternal age, systolic blood pressure and HbA1c were independently associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. These factors achieved an AUROC of 0.72 (0.68-0.76) and the model was well calibrated. Prevalence of gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and other hypertensive disorders, preterm birth, and postpartum haemorrhage decreased whereas spontaneous vaginal delivery increased across the fifths of increasing predicted risk of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 38%, 89%, 63% and 74%, respectively. A simpler model including clinical factors only (no biomarkers) achieved an AUROC of 0.68 (0.65-0.71), with sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 31%, 86%, 56% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical factors and biomarkers can be used to help stratify pregnancy and delivery risk amongst obese pregnant women. Further studies are needed to explore alternative pathways of care for obese women demonstrating different risk profiles for uncomplicated pregnancy and birth

Early Antenatal Prediction of Gestational Diabetes in Obese Women: Development of Prediction Tools for Targeted Intervention.

All obese women are categorised as being of equally high risk of gestational diabetes (GDM) whereas the majority do not develop the disorder. Lifestyle and pharmacological interventions in unselected obese pregnant women have been unsuccessful in preventing GDM. Our aim was to develop a prediction tool for early identification of obese women at high risk of GDM to facilitate targeted interventions in those most likely to benefit. Clinical and anthropometric data and non-fasting blood samples were obtained at 15+0-18+6 weeks' gestation in 1303 obese pregnant women from UPBEAT, a randomised controlled trial of a behavioural intervention. Twenty one candidate biomarkers associated with insulin resistance, and a targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolome were measured. Prediction models were constructed using stepwise logistic regression. Twenty six percent of women (n = 337) developed GDM (International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria). A model based on clinical and anthropometric variables (age, previous GDM, family history of type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, sum of skinfold thicknesses, waist:height and neck:thigh ratios) provided an area under the curve of 0.71 (95%CI 0.68-0.74). This increased to 0.77 (95%CI 0.73-0.80) with addition of candidate biomarkers (random glucose, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fructosamine, adiponectin, sex hormone binding globulin, triglycerides), but was not improved by addition of NMR metabolites (0.77; 95%CI 0.74-0.81). Clinically translatable models for GDM prediction including readily measurable variables e.g. mid-arm circumference, age, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c and adiponectin are described. Using a ≥35% risk threshold, all models identified a group of high risk obese women of whom approximately 50% (positive predictive value) later developed GDM, with a negative predictive value of 80%. Tools for early pregnancy identification of obese women at risk of GDM are described which could enable targeted interventions for GDM prevention in women who will benefit the most

Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modelling using spatial dose metrics and machine learning methods for severe acute oral mucositis resulting from head and neck radiotherapy.

Background and purpose Severe acute mucositis commonly results from head and neck (chemo)radiotherapy. A predictive model of mucositis could guide clinical decision-making and inform treatment planning. We aimed to generate such a model using spatial dose metrics and machine learning.Materials and methods Predictive models of severe acute mucositis were generated using radiotherapy dose (dose-volume and spatial dose metrics) and clinical data. Penalised logistic regression, support vector classification and random forest classification (RFC) models were generated and compared. Internal validation was performed (with 100-iteration cross-validation), using multiple metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration slope, to assess performance. Associations between covariates and severe mucositis were explored using the models.Results The dose-volume-based models (standard) performed equally to those incorporating spatial information. Discrimination was similar between models, but the RFCstandard had the best calibration. The mean AUC and calibration slope for this model were 0.71 (s.d.=0.09) and 3.9 (s.d.=2.2), respectively. The volumes of oral cavity receiving intermediate and high doses were associated with severe mucositis.Conclusions The RFCstandard model performance is modest-to-good, but should be improved, and requires external validation. Reducing the volumes of oral cavity receiving intermediate and high doses may reduce mucositis incidence

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and Alzheimer's disease risk: the MIRAGE Study

BACKGROUND: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) use may protect against Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk. We sought examine the association between NSAID use and risk of AD, and potential effect modification by APOE-ε4 carrier status and ethnicity. METHODS: The MIRAGE Study is a multi-center family study of genetic and environmental risk factors for AD. Subjects comprised 691 AD patients (probands) and 973 family members enrolled at 15 research centers between 1996 and 2002. The primary independent and dependent variables were prior NSAID use and AD case status, respectively. We stratified the dataset in order to evaluate whether the association between NSAID use and AD was similar in APOE-ε4 carriers and non-carriers. Ethnicity was similarly examined as an effect modifier. RESULTS: NSAID use was less frequent in cases compared to controls in the overall sample (adjusted OR = 0.64; 95% CI = 0.38–1.05). The benefit of NSAID use appeared more pronounced among APOE-ε4 carriers (adjusted OR = 0.49; 95% CI = 0.24–0.98) compared to non-carriers, although this association was not statistically significant. The pattern of association was similar in Caucasian and African Americans. CONCLUSIONS: NSAID use is inversely associated with AD and may be modified by APOE genotype. Prospective studies and clinical trials of sufficient power to detect effect modification by APOE-ε4 carrier status are needed