Do distribution volumes and clearances relate to tissue volumes and blood flows? A computer simulation

BACKGROUND: Kinetics of inhaled agents are often described by physiological models. However, many pharmacokinetic concepts, such as context-sensitive half-times, have been developed for drugs described by classical compartmental models. We derived classical compartmental models that describe the course of the alveolar concentrations (F(A)) generated by the physiological uptake and distribution models used by the Gas Man(® )program, and describe how distribution volumes and clearances relate to tissue volumes and blood flows. METHODS: Gas Man(® )was used to generate F(A )vs. time curves during the wash-in and wash-out period of 115 min each with a high fresh gas flow (8 L.min(-1)), a constant alveolar minute ventilation (4 L.min(-1)), and a constant inspired concentration (F(I)) of halothane (0.75%), isoflurane (1.15%), sevoflurane (2%), or desflurane (6%). With each of these F(I), simulations were ran for a 70 kg patient with 5 different cardiac outputs (CO) (2, 3, 5, 8 and 10 L.min(-1)) and for 5 patients with different weights (40, 55, 70, 85, and 100 kg) but the same CO (5 L.min(-1)). Two and three compartmental models were fitted to F(A )of the individual 9 runs using NONMEM. After testing for parsimony, goodness of fit was evaluated using median prediction error (MDPE) and median absolute prediction error (MDAPE). The model was tested prospectively for a virtual 62 kg patient with a cardiac output of 4.5 L.min(-1 )for three different durations (wash-in and wash-out period of 10, 60, and 180 min each) with an F(I )of 1.5% halothane, 1.5% isoflurane, sevoflurane 4%, or desflurane 12%. RESULTS: A three-compartment model fitted the data best (MDPE = 0% and MDAPE ≤ 0.074%) and performed equally well when tested prospectively (MDPE ≤ 0.51% and MDAPE ≤ 1.51%). The relationship between CO and body weight and the distribution volumes and clearances is complex. CONCLUSION: The kinetics of anesthetic gases can be adequately described e by a mammilary compartmental model. Therefore, concepts that are traditionally thought of as being applicable to the kinetics of intravenous agents can be equally well applied to anesthetic gases. Distribution volumes and clearances cannot be equated to tissue volumes and blood flows respectively

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Evaluation of simple rapid HIV assays and development of national rapid HIV test algorithms in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

BACKGROUND: Suitable algorithms based on a combination of two or more simple rapid HIV assays have been shown to have a diagnostic accuracy comparable to double enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) or double ELISA with Western Blot strategies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the performance of five simple rapid HIV assays using whole blood samples from HIV-infected patients, pregnant women, voluntary counseling and testing attendees and blood donors, and to formulate an alternative confirmatory strategy based on rapid HIV testing algorithms suitable for use in Tanzania. METHODS: Five rapid HIV assays: Determine HIV-1/2 (Inverness Medical), SD Bioline HIV 1/2 3.0 (Standard Diagnostics Inc.), First Response HIV Card 1-2.0 (PMC Medical India Pvt Ltd), HIV1/2 Stat-Pak Dipstick (Chembio Diagnostic System, Inc) and Uni-Gold HIV-1/2 (Trinity Biotech) were evaluated between June and September 2006 using 1433 whole blood samples from hospital patients, pregnant women, voluntary counseling and testing attendees and blood donors. All samples that were reactive on all or any of the five rapid assays and 10% of non-reactive samples were tested on a confirmatory Inno-Lia HIV I/II immunoblot assay (Immunogenetics). RESULTS: Three hundred and ninety samples were confirmed HIV-1 antibody positive, while 1043 were HIV negative. The sensitivity at initial testing of Determine, SD Bioline and Uni-Gold was 100% (95% CI; 99.1-100) while First Response and Stat-Pak had sensitivity of 99.5% (95% CI; 98.2-99.9) and 97.7% (95% CI; 95.7-98.9), respectively, which increased to 100% (95% CI; 99.1-100) on repeat testing. The initial specificity of the Uni-Gold assay was 100% (95% CI; 99.6-100) while specificities were 99.6% (95% CI; 99-99.9), 99.4% (95% CI; 98.8-99.7), 99.6% (95% CI; 99-99.9) and 99.8% (95% CI; 99.3-99.9) for Determine, SD Bioline, First Response and Stat-Pak assays, respectively. There was no any sample which was concordantly false positive in Uni-Gold, Determine and SD Bioline assays. CONCLUSION: An alternative confirmatory HIV testing strategy based on initial testing on either SD Bioline or Determine assays followed by testing of reactive samples on the Determine or SD Bioline gave 100% sensitivity (95% CI; 99.1-100) and 100% specificity (95% CI; 96-99.1) with Uni-Gold as tiebreaker for discordant results

The Quality of Registration of Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND: Lack of transparency in clinical trial conduct, publication bias and selective reporting bias are still important problems in medical research. Through clinical trials registration, it should be possible to take steps towards resolving some of these problems. However, previous evaluations of registered records of clinical trials have shown that registered information is often incomplete and non-meaningful. If these studies are accurate, this negates the possible benefits of registration of clinical trials. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A 5% sample of records of clinical trials that were registered between 17 June 2008 and 17 June 2009 was taken from the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) database and assessed for the presence of contact information, the presence of intervention specifics in drug trials and the quality of primary and secondary outcome reporting. 731 records were included. More than half of the records were registered after recruitment of the first participant. The name of a contact person was available in 94.4% of records from non-industry funded trials and 53.7% of records from industry funded trials. Either an email address or a phone number was present in 76.5% of non-industry funded trial records and in 56.5% of industry funded trial records. Although a drug name or company serial number was almost always provided, other drug intervention specifics were often omitted from registration. Of 3643 reported outcomes, 34.9% were specific measures with a meaningful time frame. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical trials registration has the potential to contribute substantially to improving clinical trial transparency and reducing publication bias and selective reporting. These potential benefits are currently undermined by deficiencies in the provision of information in key areas of registered records

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus, and foreign birth in North Carolina, 1993 – 2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The proportion of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) reported in the United States has been gradually increasing. HIV infection and foreign birth are increasingly associated with tuberculosis and understanding their effect on the clinical presentation of tuberculosis is important.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Case-control study of 6,124 persons with tuberculosis reported to the North Carolina Division of Public health from January 1, 1993 to December 31, 2006. Multivariate logistic regression was used to obtain adjusted odds ratios measuring the associations of foreign birth region and US born race/ethnicity, by HIV status, with EPTB.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among all patients with tuberculosis, 1,366 (22.3%) had EPTB, 563 (9.2%) were HIV co-infected, and 1,299 (21.2%) were foreign born. Among HIV negative patients, EPTB was associated with being foreign born (adjusted ORs 1.36 to 5.09, depending on region of birth) and with being US born, Black/African American (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.42, 2.39). Among HIV infected patients, EPTB was associated with being US born, Black/African American (OR 2.60; 95% CI 1.83, 3.71) and with foreign birth in the Americas (OR 5.12; 95% CI 2.84, 9.23).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Foreign born tuberculosis cases were more likely to have EPTB than US born tuberculosis cases, even in the absence of HIV infection. Increasing proportions of foreign born and HIV-attributable tuberculosis cases in the United States will likely result in a sustained burden of EPTB. Further research is needed to explore why the occurrence and type of EPTB differs by region of birth and whether host genetic and/or bacterial variation can explain these differences in EPTB.</p

Selection analysis identifies unusual clustered mutational changes in Omicron lineage BA.1 that likely impact Spike function.

Among the 30 non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (i) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (ii) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (iii) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any genomes within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron over all previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected

Personalized Drug Dosage – Closing the Loop

A brief account is given of various approaches to the individualization of drug dosage, including the use of pharmacodynamic markers, therapeutic monitoring of plasma drug concentrations, genotyping, computer-guided dosage using ‘dashboards’, and automatic closed-loop control of pharmacological action. The potential for linking the real patient to his or her ‘virtual twin’ through the application of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling is also discussed

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation