Highlighting uncertainty in clinical risk prediction using a model of emergency laparotomy mortality risk

Clinical prediction models typically make point estimates of risk. However, values of key variables are often missing during model development or at prediction time, meaning that the point estimates mask significant uncertainty and can lead to over-confident decision making. We present a model of mortality risk in emergency laparotomy which instead presents a distribution of predicted risks, highlighting the uncertainty over the risk of death with an intuitive visualisation. We developed and validated our model using data from 127134 emergency laparotomies from patients in England and Wales during 2013–2019. We captured the uncertainty arising from missing data using multiple imputation, allowing prospective, patient-specific imputation for variables that were frequently missing. Prospective imputation allows early prognostication in patients where these variables are not yet measured, accounting for the additional uncertainty this induces. Our model showed good discrimination and calibration (95% confidence intervals: Brier score 0.071–0.078, C statistic 0.859–0.873, calibration error 0.031–0.059) on unseen data from 37 hospitals, consistently improving upon the current gold-standard model. The dispersion of the predicted risks varied significantly between patients and increased where prospective imputation occurred. We present a case study that illustrates the potential impact of uncertainty quantification on clinical decision making. Our model improves mortality risk prediction in emergency laparotomy and has the potential to inform decision-makers and assist discussions with patients and their families. Our analysis code was robustly developed and is publicly available for easy replication of our study and adaptation to predicting other outcomes

Upper atmospheres and ionospheres of planets and satellites

The upper atmospheres of the planets and their satellites are more directly exposed to sunlight and solar wind particles than the surface or the deeper atmospheric layers. At the altitudes where the associated energy is deposited, the atmospheres may become ionized and are referred to as ionospheres. The details of the photon and particle interactions with the upper atmosphere depend strongly on whether the object has anintrinsic magnetic field that may channel the precipitating particles into the atmosphere or drive the atmospheric gas out to space. Important implications of these interactions include atmospheric loss over diverse timescales, photochemistry and the formation of aerosols, which affect the evolution, composition and remote sensing of the planets (satellites). The upper atmosphere connects the planet (satellite) bulk composition to the near-planet (-satellite) environment. Understanding the relevant physics and chemistry provides insight to the past and future conditions of these objects, which is critical for understanding their evolution. This chapter introduces the basic concepts of upper atmospheres and ionospheres in our solar system, and discusses aspects of their neutral and ion composition, wind dynamics and energy budget. This knowledge is key to putting in context the observations of upper atmospheres and haze on exoplanets, and to devise a theory that explains exoplanet demographics.Comment: Invited Revie

Ancient hydrothermal seafloor deposits in Eridania basin on Mars

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. The file attached is the Published/publisher’s pdf version of the article

Alteration assemblages in Martian meteorites: implications for near-surface processes

The SNC (Shergotty-Nakhla-Chassigny) meteorites have recorded interactions between martian crustal fluids and the parent igneous rocks. The resultant secondary minerals – which comprise up to 1 vol.% of the meteorites – provide information about the timing and nature of hydrous activity and atmospheric processes on Mars. We suggest that the most plausible models for secondary mineral formation involve the evaporation of low temperature (25 – 150 °C) brines. This is consistent with the simple mineralogy of these assemblages – Fe-Mg-Ca carbonates, anhydrite, gypsum, halite, clays – and the chemical fractionation of Ca-to Mg-rich carbonate in ALH84001 "rosettes". Longer-lived, and higher temperature, hydrothermal systems would have caused more silicate alteration than is seen and probably more complex mineral assemblages. Experimental and phase equilibria data on carbonate compositions similar to those present in the SNCs imply low temperatures of formation with cooling taking place over a short period of time (e.g. days). The ALH84001 carbonate also probably shows the effects of partial vapourisation and dehydration related to an impact event post-dating the initial precipitation. This shock event may have led to the formation of sulphide and some magnetite in the Fe-rich outer parts of the rosettes. Radiometric dating (K-Ar, Rb-Sr) of the secondary mineral assemblages in one of the nakhlites (Lafayette) suggests that they formed between 0 and 670 Myr, and certainly long after the crystallisation of the host igneous rocks. Crystallisation of ALH84001 carbonate took place 0.5 Gyr after the parent rock. These age ranges and the other research on these assemblages suggest that environmental conditions conducive to near-surface liquid water have been present on Mars periodically over the last 1 Gyr. This fluid activity cannot have been continuous over geological time because in that case much more silicate alteration would have taken place in the meteorite parent rocks and the soluble salts would probably not have been preserved. The secondary minerals could have been precipitated from brines with seawater-like composition, high bicarbonate contents and a weakly acidic nature. The co-existence of siderite (Fe-carbonate) and clays in the nakhlites suggests that the pCO2 level in equilibrium with the parent brine may have been 50 mbar or more. The brines could have originated as flood waters which percolated through the top few hundred meters of the crust, releasing cations from the surrounding parent rocks. The high sulphur and chlorine concentrations of the martian soil have most likely resulted from aeolian redistribution of such aqueously-deposited salts and from reaction of the martian surface with volcanic acid volatiles. The volume of carbonates in meteorites provides a minimum crustal abundance and is equivalent to 50–250 mbar of CO2 being trapped in the uppermost 200–1000 m of the martian crust. Large fractionations in 18O between igneous silicate in the meteorites and the secondary minerals (30) require formation of the latter below temperatures at which silicate-carbonate equilibration could have taken place (400°C) and have been taken to suggest low temperatures (e.g. 150°C) of precipitation from a hydrous fluid

Earth: Atmospheric Evolution of a Habitable Planet

Our present-day atmosphere is often used as an analog for potentially habitable exoplanets, but Earth's atmosphere has changed dramatically throughout its 4.5 billion year history. For example, molecular oxygen is abundant in the atmosphere today but was absent on the early Earth. Meanwhile, the physical and chemical evolution of Earth's atmosphere has also resulted in major swings in surface temperature, at times resulting in extreme glaciation or warm greenhouse climates. Despite this dynamic and occasionally dramatic history, the Earth has been persistently habitable--and, in fact, inhabited--for roughly 4 billion years. Understanding Earth's momentous changes and its enduring habitability is essential as a guide to the diversity of habitable planetary environments that may exist beyond our solar system and for ultimately recognizing spectroscopic fingerprints of life elsewhere in the Universe. Here, we review long-term trends in the composition of Earth's atmosphere as it relates to both planetary habitability and inhabitation. We focus on gases that may serve as habitability markers (CO2, N2) or biosignatures (CH4, O2), especially as related to the redox evolution of the atmosphere and the coupled evolution of Earth's climate system. We emphasize that in the search for Earth-like planets we must be mindful that the example provided by the modern atmosphere merely represents a single snapshot of Earth's long-term evolution. In exploring the many former states of our own planet, we emphasize Earth's atmospheric evolution during the Archean, Proterozoic, and Phanerozoic eons, but we conclude with a brief discussion of potential atmospheric trajectories into the distant future, many millions to billions of years from now. All of these 'Alternative Earth' scenarios provide insight to the potential diversity of Earth-like, habitable, and inhabited worlds.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables. Review chapter to appear in Handbook of Exoplanet