Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF) - Development of Protocols for Multi-annual Plan Impact Assessments

background to aspects of modelling implied by an Impact Assessment. Experience with stakeholder involvement in the development of Multi-Annual Plans was also discussed. The meeting then developed a report framework to deliver the Commission¿s requirement. This report structure was designed to complement the Framework for Evaluations previously developed and extended under SG-MOS 090-02 in Lisbon in November. To test the suitability of the Framework and to determine how to carry out the necessary supporting work four requests, on Celtic Sea herring, Bay of Biscay sole, Haddock to the west of Scotland and Western Waters Access Regime, were briefly examined for scope and approach. Based on the experience gained from these and the general experience of other plans a generic timetable and Terms of Reference were developed.JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF) - Report of the STECF Study Group on the Evaluation of Fishery Multi-annual Plans (SGMOS 09-02)

SG-MOS 09-02 was held in IPIMAR, Lisbon, (Portugal), on 23-27 November 2009. The aim of the workshop was to provide Evaluations of three multiannual fisheries management plans:- R(EC) No 388/2006 ¿ multi-annual plan for sole in the Bay of Biscay; R(EC) No 209/2007 ¿ multi-annual plan for sole in the Western Channel R(EC) No676/2007 ¿ multi-annual plan for sole and plaice in the North Sea. STECF reviewed the report during its Plenary meeting on 26-30 April 2010.JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

A Diagnostic tool for displaying stock history and simulated equilibrium exploita-tion, and an example using North Sea herring

The objective To provide a single page display to compare historic exploitation, and stochastic equilibrium exploitation with estimates of risk of SSB<Blim and probability of F=Fmsy. Uncertainty is optionally included in the modelling. The basis Simulated recruitment based on a fitted S/R relationship from a year based data pe-riod set by user. Number of iterations (stocks) selected by user ¿ (100 ). Number of years to project to equilibrium (100). This longer period is required near F crash where equilibrium can be more difficult to find ¿ 30 years is sufficient elsewhere. Se-lected F steps to scan over (0 to 1 in steps of 0.05). Example analysis based on North Sea herring Some exploration to show effect of S/R function on NS herring ¿ comparing Beverton Holt and Ricker for two periods 1975-2008 (post crash) and 2002 to 2008 (recent re-duced recruitment). Stock Recruit model fits are given in Figures 1,3,5,7 Stochastic equilibrium, SSB, catch and recruitment compared with historic values are shown in Figures, 2,4,6,8 along with estimates of risk to SSB<Blim and <Bpa,the estimated pdf of Fmsy and the for comparison the exploitation F rule for the existing management plan. The results are sensitive to recruitment assumptions but the management plan seems to appropriate for recent recruitment. Figures 9-12 show the changes in estimates of the pdf of Fmsy for the Ricker S/R rela-tionship for differing varying components in the simulation. Figure 9 gives the mean yield per recruit, a deterministic result showing a single value. Figure 10 shows the impact of the inclusion of just stochastic recruitment, which gives Fmsy as a spread of values symmetrically around the mean. Figure 11 shows the impact of addition of uncertainty in the functional form of the S/R relationship, through bootstrap using var/cov of the fit, this gives increased uncertainty at high F. Figure 12 includes vari-ability from the last 10 years in weights at age, maturity and selection in the fishery.JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

ICES WKFRAME REPORT 2010 Report of the Workshop on Implementing the ICES FMSY framework

WKFRAME met for 4 days in late March to provide some technical guidelines to as-sist ICES expert groups in the implementation of the ICES MSY concept in advice for 2011. The workshop was attended by scientists from the ICES community, stake-holders from the fishing Industry and environmental interest groups, as well as rep-resentatives from one of ICES clients (EC). The primary area addressed by the group was to provide technical guidelines for the estimation of an exploitation rate based MSY target or if necessary a proxy, which should include; criteria for selection of proxies for Fmsy and criteria for advice when catch forecasts are not available. While the workshop focused on the technical issues related to defining Fmsy proxies, the dis-cussions touched on other issues related to the implementation of an MSY based ad-vice. These issues which include: the role of management plans in relation to MSY based advice, the function and definition of the Btrigger in the ICES implementation of an MSY advice, the definition of Fmsy as a target or limit reference point, and the in-clusion of estimation or implementation errors in the MSY target. The effects of multi species/predator prey interactions on Fmsy targets, requires further consideration. In relation to these issues, for the purposes of generating ICES advice for 2011, practical approaches are proposed by ACOM. With regard to the estimation of Fmsy proxies, the general approach advocated by WKFRAME is to explore the data through a range of methods with different assumptions, to identify the range of plausible candidates. The workshop suggested that EG¿s explore the sensitivity of the estimates of these candidates to uncertainty and assumptions in the model parameters, and finally, where possible, to check the response of the stock to fishing at any proposed target in the long term (through simulation). Technical guidelines in terms of methods, sensi-tivity analyses and things to look out for are detailed in chapter 2 of the report. With regard to the criteria for advice when there is no forecast; the workshop suggests that F advice in relation to putative Fmsy targets should be framed in terms of moving ex-ploitation rates towards the target, rather than specifying a harvest in relation to the current stock status and/or expected short term development of the stock. Thus ad-vice arising from circumstances where there is no short term forecast, has to be seen in the context of a ¿soft¿ evaluation of stock status relative to crudely estimated prox-ies. There are no new methods or techniques proposed in this report, and indeed the most basic equilibrium based methods are those used in the early years of fisheries science. The implementation of guidelines suggested in this report, require some de-gree of ¿expert judgement¿ and (in the cases of simulation) a caution against over interpretation of the results. This leads ultimately to a conclusion that the move to MSY based advice has to be seen as a stepwise process, which will require data ex-ploration and sensitivity analysis by the EG¿s, and a willingness from both ICES and its clients to work with recursively updated targets.JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

The Benefit of Hindsight; An Evaluation of North Sea Herring Management Plans from 1995 to the Present

In 1995 North Sea herring was estimated to have declined from previous high of around 1.5 million to 400,000 tonnes, the point at which significant reduction in recruitment had previously been observed. The response to this was to cut the fishery by reducing the human consumption TAC by 50% and reduce the catches of juvenile herring for reduction even further. In addition the European Commission proposed a management plan to be followed. Since then this management plan has been revised twice. Elements of these plans have included target fishing mortality, 15% constraints on inter-annual change in TAC, nevertheless due to other clauses the management has resulted in an increase and a subsequent decrease of 50% in TAC during the last 15 years. We assess potential economic impacts under alternative management scenarios and discuss the lessons that can be learned for the design of management plans. The analysis includes the simulation of different strategies, including the impact of stock dynamics, and uncertainties in the estimation. In addition, the impact on the UK economy of the fluctuation in the TAC, in terms of value, employment, will be assessed.JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

ICES WKFRAME REPORT 2011 Report of the Workshop on Implementing the ICES FMSY framework

WKFRAME-2 met for 4 days in January to provide further technical guidelines to assist ICES expert groups in the implementation of the ICES MSY framework for advice which was introduced in 2010. The workshop was attended by scientists from the ICES community, stakeholders from the fishing industry and environmental interest groups. This year a particular focus of the group was trying to develop technical solutions to issues which proved problematic with the advice formulation in 2010. For this reason the meeting was overlapped with WGCHAIRS, which provided an important input to the first term of reference, ¿to evaluate the implementation of the advice and identify areas where further development is required¿. Apart from technical issues related to model fits of SRR, a major issue which arose last year was the confusion of what ICES was advising in relation to sustainable harvest rates, in situations either where stocks were reproductively impaired, or where there were technical differences between fishing at a defined Fmsy and according to an accepted management plan. The latter issue is now clarified and it is ICES policy to have a hierarchical approach to advice, where agreed management plans will be the primary consideration. In the situation where stocks are at risk of productivity impairment, the approach was to provide several options on the slope of the advised F rule where SSB is below MSYBtrigger. The decision on the implementation of any of these options is the responsibility of ACOM. WKFRAME suggests that adopting a singular approach will make it possible to give advice using the ICES MSY framework which is consistent with both the PA and MSY approaches. Several technical issues arose in 2010 also in regard to the calculation of advised exploitation under the transition schemes. The approach where SSB is above MSYBtrigger, is relatively straightforward, and there is a suggestion to calculate the transition from F2010 and follow 5 equal steps to the Ftarget. In the case where SSB is or falls below MSYBtrigger during the transition, the situation is more complicated. To help clarify the options, WKFRAME has produced generic equations which cover the various options and suggests that ACOM choose one of these options with a caution against the mechanistic application of whatever rule is chosen. Most of these issues fall under the second ToR ¿on [the basis of issues arising in 2010] to further develop the MSY approach¿ and the details are provided in section 2 of the report. Finally there was a ToR to ¿further develop the MSY approach to be applied in cases where no analytical assessment is available¿. The first issue here was to address the semantic concern where the labelling of advice as maximum sustainable yield, when it was based on relatively imprecise determinations of whether overfishing (in relation to MSY) is occurring, caused problems. A suggested solution is to label this advice as sustainable yield advice. A clarification of the guidelines from WKFRAME I, with some references to appropriate methodologies is provided in section 4. In order to assist EG¿s to provide the basis for determinations required by the ADG¿s in drafting advice in situations where there is no forecast, a flow chart is provided.JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

The role of fisheries data in the development evaluation and impact assessment in support of European fisheries plans

The European Commission has two formal requirements for developing multi-annual management plan policies: evaluation of the past performance of existing plans and impact assessments (IAs) of the potential benefits of new proposals. The new policies require the evaluation of fishery management in terms of three specific criteria: (i) effectiveness, i.e. the best method to achieve the objectives; (ii) efficiency, the cost-effectiveness, and proportionality; and (iii) consistency, i.e. limiting trade-offs across economic, social, and environmental domains. To develop policy, there is a need to collect relevant information, then to conduct appropriate analyses that provide documentation to support the policy objectives. This paper discusses the data requirements for good environmental, economic, and social understanding of fishery dynamics and management, describing how fishery data are currently linked to the analytical and management evaluation process using examples from 2009 and 2010. The type of information currently used is considered, along with the timetable of data availability, and its effect on historical evaluation and IAs, which are now formally required when any changes to legislation are proposed in the European Union, including following stakeholder consultation. The possibilities and future needs for such data are discussed.JRC.G.4-Maritime affair

Investigating Agreement between Different Data Sources Using Bayesian State-Space Models: An Application to Estimating NE Atlantic Mackerel Catch and Stock Abundance

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are ideally suited to analyses of situations where there are a variety of data sources, particularly where the uncertainties differ markedly among the data and the estimated parameters can be correlated. The example of Northeast Atlantic (NEA) mackerel is used to evaluate the agreement between available data from egg surveys, tagging, and catch-at-age using multiple models within the Bayesian framework WINBUGS. The errors in each source of information are dealt with independently, and there is extensive exploration of potential sources of uncertainty in both the data and the model. Model options include variation by age and over time of both selectivity in the fishery and natural mortality, varying the precision and calculation method for spawning-stock biomass derived from an egg survey, and the extent of missing catches varying over time. The models are compared through deviance information criterion and Bayesian posterior predictive p-values. To reconcile mortality estimated from the different datasets the landings and discards reported would have to have been between 1.7 and 3.6 times higher than the recorded catches.JRC.G.4-Maritime affair

ICES SGHERWAY Report 2010 - Report of the Study Group on the evaluation of assess-ment and management strategies of the western herring stocks (SGHERWAY)

The final meeting of the ICES Study Group on the evaluation of assessment and man-agement strategies of the western herring stocks [SGHERWAY] took place in Dublin, Ireland, 14¿18 June, 2010. The Chair was Emma Hatfield (UK) and 8 people in total attended, from five nations.   This is the final report of SGHERWAY.   SGHERWAY was convened in 2008 to explore and evaluate the series of recommen-dations produced by the EU funded WESTHER project which suggested that, in the current stock assessment setup for herring to the west of the British Isles, two of the basic assumptions of stock assessment are violated.   Currently the herring to the west of the British Isles are fished, managed and assessed separately as four ICES stocks 1: VIa North; 2: VIaS and VIIb,c; 3: VIIaN and 4: Celtic Sea and VIIj. Analytical assessments for VIa North are accepted by ICES in most years and have been accepted for the Celtic Sea and VIIj ICE stock for the last two. Analytical assessments have been rejected by ICES for VIaS and VIIb,c or VIIaN for many years.   A combined assessment of the three stocks VIaN, VIaS/VIIb,c and VIIaN (the Malin Shelf metapopulation) was explored and its utility for advisory purposes investi-gated. It was found that the combined assessment gives important information on the Malin Shelf metapopulation, though it is unlikely to be useful for management advice purposes because it does not provide sufficient information on the sttus of the indi-vidual components.    Alternative management strategies for the Malin shelf metapopulation were investi-gated to show how it could be sustainably managed, approaching MSY levels. The tools evaluated did not, under all conditions, suffice to manage the components of the metapopulation sustainably. The results showed that managing metapopulations is only possible with detailed information on fisheries independent data. However, whenever subcomponents of the metapopulation differ considerably in abundance, sustainable management is impossible for the smallest subcomponent. The VIIaN ICES stock should therefore continue to be assessed and managed separately. Where there is uncertainty of stock identification fishing mortality should be kept at low levels. Should identification rates increase, fishing mortality may also be increased.   The evaluation of the utility of a synoptic acoustic survey in the summer for the Heb-rides, Malin and Irish shelf areas was based on results of a combined survey pro-gramme in 2008 and 2009, and an analysis of time-series of existing surveys in the area. The survey covers all areas in which mixing of the various western herring stocks is likely to occur at that time and could beused to establish time-series for the constituent components of the Malin Shelf stock complex. However, such time-series will not be available for a number of years. The amount of mixing between stocks cannot be estimated by the current sampling regime in the Malin Shelf survey. Con-sequently, a sampling programme has been developed to allow proper identification of fish population origins, making use of otolith and body shape techniques. Analy-ses will be compared to fish of known spawning origin collected during the EU pro-ject WESTHER. This sampling programme has been initiated in the 2010 synoptic acoustic survey. JRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair