Freak observers and the measure of the multiverse

I suggest that the factor $p_j$ in the pocket-based measure of the multiverse, $P_j=p_j f_j$, should be interpreted as accounting for equilibrium de Sitter vacuum fluctuations, while the selection factor $f_j$ accounts for the number of observers that were formed due to non-equilibrium processes resulting from such fluctuations. I show that this formulation does not suffer from the problem of freak observers (also known as Boltzmann brains).Comment: 6 pages, no figures; references adde

Holographic Multiverse

We explore the idea that the dynamics of the inflationary multiverse is encoded in its future boundary, where it is described by a lower dimensional theory which is conformally invariant in the UV. We propose that a measure for the multiverse, which is needed in order to extract quantitative probabilistic predictions, can be derived in terms of the boundary theory by imposing a UV cutoff. In the inflationary bulk, this is closely related (though not identical) to the so-called scale factor cutoff measure.Comment: 23 pages, 4 figures. Replaced to match published versio

Ab Initio Estimates of the Size of the Observable Universe

When one combines multiverse predictions by Bousso, Hall, and Nomura for the observed age and size of the universe in terms of the proton and electron charge and masses with anthropic predictions of Carter, Carr, and Rees for these masses in terms of the charge, one gets that the age of the universe should be roughly the inverse 64th power, and the cosmological constant should be around the 128th power, of the proton charge. Combining these with a further renormalization group argument gives a single approximate equation for the proton charge, with no continuous adjustable or observed parameters, and with a solution that is within 8% of the observed value. Using this solution gives large logarithms for the age and size of the universe and for the cosmological constant that agree with the observed values within 17%.Comment: 10 pages, LaTe

Soft SUSY breaking contributions to proton decay

We show that in supersymmetric grand unified theories new effective D=4 and D=5 operators for proton decay are induced by soft SUSY-breaking terms, when heavy GUT gauge bosons are integrated out, in addition to the standard D=6 ones. As a result, the proton lifetime in gauge mediated channels can be enhanced or even suppressed depending on the size of the heavy Higgses soft terms.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, LaTeX, JHEP3 class, axodra

OH reactivity at a rural site (Wangdu) in the North China Plain: contributions from OH reactants and experimental OH budget

In 2014, a large, comprehensive field campaign was conducted in the densely populated North China Plain. The measurement site was located in a botanic garden close to the small town Wangdu, without major industry but influenced by regional transportation of air pollution. The loss rate coefficient of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals (OH) was quantified by direct measurements of the OH reactivity. Values ranged between 10 and 20 s(-1) for most of the daytime. Highest values were reached in the late night with maximum values of around 40 s(-1). OH reactants mainly originated from anthropogenic activities as indicated (1) by a good correlation between measured OH reactivity and carbon monoxide (linear correlation coefficient R-2 = 0 : 33) and (2) by a high contribution of nitrogen oxide species to the OH reactivity (up to 30% in the morning). Total OH reactivity was measured by a laser flash photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence instrument (LP-LIF). Measured values can be explained well by measured trace gas concentrations including organic compounds, oxygenated organic compounds, CO and nitrogen oxides. Significant, unexplained OH reactivity was only observed during nights, when biomass burning of agricultural waste occurred on surrounding fields. OH reactivity measurements also allow investigating the chemical OH budget. During this campaign, the OH destruction rate calculated from measured OH reactivity and measured OH concentration was balanced by the sum of OH production from ozone and nitrous acid photolysis and OH regeneration from hydroperoxy radicals within the uncertainty of measurements. However, a tendency for higher OH destruction compared to OH production at lower concentrations of nitric oxide is also observed, consistent with previous findings in field campaigns in China

Evaluating the effect of alternative carbon allocation schemes in a land surface model (CLM4.5) on carbon fluxes, pools, and turnover in temperate forests

How carbon (C) is allocated to different plant tissues (leaves, stem, and roots) determines how long C remains in plant biomass and thus remains a central challenge for understanding the global C cycle. We used a diverse set of observations (AmeriFlux eddy covariance tower observations, biomass estimates from tree-ring data, and leaf area index (LAI) measurements) to compare C fluxes, pools, and LAI data with those predicted by a land surface model (LSM), the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). We ran CLM4.5 for nine temperate (including evergreen and deciduous) forests in North America between 1980 and 2013 using four different C allocation schemes: i. dynamic C allocation scheme (named "D-CLM4.5") with one dynamic allometric parameter, which allocates C to the stem and leaves to vary in time as a function of annual net primary production (NPP); ii. an alternative dynamic C allocation scheme (named "D-Litton"), where, similar to (i), C allocation is a dynamic function of annual NPP, but unlike (i) includes two dynamic allometric parameters involving allocation to leaves, stem, and coarse roots; iii.-iv. a fixed C allocation scheme with two variants, one representative of observations in evergreen (named "F-Evergreen") and the other of observations in deciduous forests (named "F-Deciduous"). D-CLM4.5 generally overestimated gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, and underestimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). In D-CLM4.5, initial aboveground biomass in 1980 was largely overestimated (between 10 527 and 12 897 g Cm-2) for deciduous forests, whereas aboveground biomass accumulation through time (between 1980 and 2011) was highly underestimated (between 1222 and 7557 gCm(-2)) for both evergreen and deciduous sites due to a lower stem turnover rate in the sites than the one used in the model. D-CLM4.5 overestimated LAI in both evergreen and deciduous sites because the leaf C-LAI relationship in the model did not match the observed leaf C-LAI relationship at our sites. Although the four C allocation schemes gave similar results for aggregated C fluxes, they translated to important differences in long-term aboveground biomass accumulation and aboveground NPP. For deciduous forests, D-Litton gave more realistic C-stem/C-leaf ratios and strongly reduced the overestimation of initial aboveground biomass and aboveground NPP for deciduous forests by D-CLM4.5. We identified key structural and parameterization deficits that need refinement to improve the accuracy of LSMs in the near future. These include changing how C is allocated in fixed and dynamic schemes based on data from current forest syntheses and different parameterization of allocation schemes for different forest types. Our results highlight the utility of using measurements of aboveground biomass to evaluate and constrain the C allocation scheme in LSMs, and suggest that stem turnover is overestimated by CLM4.5 for these AmeriFlux sites. Understanding the controls of turnover will be critical to improving long-term C processes in LSMs

On the implications of aerosol liquid water and phase separation for organic aerosol mass

Organic compounds and liquid water are major aerosol constituents in the southeast United States (SE US). Water associated with inorganic constituents (inorganic water) can contribute to the partitioning medium for organic aerosol when relative humidities or organic matter to organic carbon (OM / OC) ratios are high such that separation relative humidities (SRH) are below the ambient relative humidity (RH). As OM / OC ratios in the SE US are often between 1.8 and 2.2, organic aerosol experiences both mixing with inorganic water and separation from it. Regional chemical transport model simulations including inorganic water (but excluding water uptake by organic compounds) in the partitioning medium for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) when RH > SRH led to increased SOA concentrations, particularly at night. Water uptake to the organic phase resulted in even greater SOA concentrations as a result of a positive feedback in which water uptake increased SOA, which further increased aerosol water and organic aerosol. Aerosol properties, such as the OM / OC and hygroscopicity parameter (kappa(org)), were captured well by the model compared with measurements during the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) 2013. Organic nitrates from monoterpene oxidation were predicted to be the least water-soluble semivolatile species in the model, but most biogenically derived semivolatile species in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model were highly water soluble and expected to contribute to water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC). Organic aerosol and SOA precursors were abundant at night, but additional improvements in daytime organic aerosol are needed to close the model-measurement gap. When taking into account deviations from ideality, including both inorganic (when RH > SRH) and organic water in the organic partitioning medium reduced the mean bias in SOA for routine monitoring networks and improved model performance compared to observations from SOAS. Property updates from this work will be released in CMAQ v5.2

An update on ozone profile trends for the period 2000 to 2016

Ozone profile trends over the period 2000 to 2016 from several merged satellite ozone data sets and from ground-based data measured by four techniques at stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change indicate significant ozone increases in the upper stratosphere, between 35 and 48km altitude (5 and 1hPa). Near 2hPa (42km), ozone has been increasing by about 1.5% per decade in the tropics (20°S to 20°N), and by 2 to 2.5% per decade in the 35 to 60° latitude bands of both hemispheres. At levels below 35km (5hPa), 2000 to 2016 ozone trends are smaller and not statistically significant. The observed trend profiles are consistent with expectations from chemistry climate model simulations. This study confirms positive trends of upper stratospheric ozone already reported, e.g., in the WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment 2014 or by Harris et al. (2015). Compared to those studies, three to four additional years of observations, updated and improved data sets with reduced drift, and the fact that nearly all individual data sets indicate ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, all give enhanced confidence. Uncertainties have been reduced, for example for the trend near 2hPa in the 35 to 60° latitude bands from about ±5% (2σ) in Harris et al. (2015) to less than ±2% (2σ). Nevertheless, a thorough analysis of possible drifts and differences between various data sources is still required, as is a detailed attribution of the observed increases to declining ozone-depleting substances and to stratospheric cooling. Ongoing quality observations from multiple independent platforms are key for verifying that recovery of the ozone layer continues as expected