A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mathematical models and simulations of disease spread often assume a constant per-contact transmission probability. This assumption ignores the heterogeneity in transmission probabilities, e.g. due to the varying intensity and duration of potentially contagious contacts. Ignoring such heterogeneities might lead to erroneous conclusions from simulation results. In this paper, we show how a mechanistic model of disease transmission differs from this commonly used assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present an exposure-based, mechanistic model of disease transmission that reflects heterogeneities in contact duration and intensity. Based on empirical contact data, we calculate the expected number of secondary cases induced by an infector (i) for the mechanistic model and (ii) under the classical assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. The results of both approaches are compared for different basic reproduction numbers <it>R</it>₀.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The outcomes of the mechanistic model differ significantly from those of the assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. In particular, cases with many different contacts have much lower expected numbers of secondary cases when using the mechanistic model instead of the common assumption. This is due to the fact that the proportion of long, intensive contacts decreases in the contact dataset with an increasing total number of contacts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The importance of highly connected individuals, so-called super-spreaders, for disease spread seems to be overestimated when a constant per-contact transmission probability is assumed. This holds particularly for diseases with low basic reproduction numbers. Simulations of disease spread should weight contacts by duration and intensity.</p

Using the Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino Zebrafish Line to Characterize In Vivo Expression of neurod

In this study, we used a newly-created transgenic zebrafish, Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino, to further characterize the expression of neurod in the developing and adult retina and to determine neurod expression during adult photoreceptor regeneration. We also provide observations regarding the expression of neurod in a variety of other tissues. In this line, EGFP is found in cells of the developing and adult retina, pineal gland, cerebellum, olfactory bulbs, midbrain, hindbrain, neural tube, lateral line, inner ear, pancreas, gut, and fin. Using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization, we compare the expression of the nrd:egfp transgene to that of endogenous neurod and to known retinal cell types. Consistent with previous data based on in situ hybridizations, we show that during retinal development, the nrd:egfp transgene is not expressed in proliferating retinal neuroepithelium, and is expressed in a subset of retinal neurons. In contrast to previous studies, nrd:egfp is gradually re-expressed in all rod photoreceptors. During photoreceptor regeneration in adult zebrafish, in situ hybridization reveals that neurod is not expressed in Müller glial-derived neuronal progenitors, but is expressed in photoreceptor progenitors as they migrate to the outer nuclear layer and differentiate into new rod photoreceptors. During photoreceptor regeneration, expression of the nrd:egfp matches that of neurod. We conclude that Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino is a good representation of endogenous neurod expression, is a useful tool to visualize neurod expression in a variety of tissues and will aid investigating the fundamental processes that govern photoreceptor regeneration in adults

Molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the evolution of form and function in the amniote jaw.

The amniote jaw complex is a remarkable amalgamation of derivatives from distinct embryonic cell lineages. During development, the cells in these lineages experience concerted movements, migrations, and signaling interactions that take them from their initial origins to their final destinations and imbue their derivatives with aspects of form including their axial orientation, anatomical identity, size, and shape. Perturbations along the way can produce defects and disease, but also generate the variation necessary for jaw evolution and adaptation. We focus on molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate form in the amniote jaw complex, and that enable structural and functional integration. Special emphasis is placed on the role of cranial neural crest mesenchyme (NCM) during the species-specific patterning of bone, cartilage, tendon, muscle, and other jaw tissues. We also address the effects of biomechanical forces during jaw development and discuss ways in which certain molecular and cellular responses add adaptive and evolutionary plasticity to jaw morphology. Overall, we highlight how variation in molecular and cellular programs can promote the phenomenal diversity and functional morphology achieved during amniote jaw evolution or lead to the range of jaw defects and disease that affect the human condition

Visualization of Gli Activity in Craniofacial Tissues of Hedgehog-Pathway Reporter Transgenic Zebrafish

The Hedgehog (Hh)-signaling pathway plays a crucial role in the development and maintenance of multiple vertebrate and invertebrate organ systems. Gli transcription factors are regulated by Hh-signaling and act as downstream effectors of the pathway to activate Hh-target genes. Understanding the requirements for Hh-signaling in organisms can be gained by assessing Gli activity in a spatial and temporal fashion.We have generated a Gli-dependent (Gli-d) transgenic line, Tg(Gli-d:mCherry), that allows for rapid and simple detection of Hh-responding cell populations in both live and fixed zebrafish. This transgenic line expresses a mCherry reporter under the control of a Gli responsive promoter, which can be followed by using fluorescent microscopy and in situ hybridization. Expression of the mCherry transgene reporter during embryogenesis and early larval development faithfully replicated known expression domains of Hh-signaling in zebrafish, and abrogating Hh-signaling in transgenic fish resulted in the suppression of reporter expression. Moreover, ectopic shh expression in Tg(Glid:mCherry) fish led to increased transgene production. Using this transgenic line we investigated the nature of Hh-pathway response during early craniofacial development and determined that the neural crest skeletal precursors do not directly respond to Hh-signaling prior to 48 hours post fertilization, suggesting that earlier requirements for pathway activation in this population of facial skeleton precursors are indirect.We have determined that early Hh-signaling requirements in craniofacial development are indirect. We further demonstrate the Tg(Gli-d:mCherry) fish are a highly useful tool for studying Hh-signaling dependent processes during embryogenesis and larval stages

Detecting Clusters of Mutations

Positive selection for protein function can lead to multiple mutations within a small stretch of DNA, i.e., to a cluster of mutations. Recently, Wagner proposed a method to detect such mutation clusters. His method, however, did not take into account that residues with high solvent accessibility are inherently more variable than residues with low solvent accessibility. Here, we propose a new algorithm to detect clustered evolution. Our algorithm controls for different substitution probabilities at buried and exposed sites in the tertiary protein structure, and uses random permutations to calculate accurate P values for inferred clusters. We apply the algorithm to genomes of bacteria, fly, and mammals, and find several clusters of mutations in functionally important regions of proteins. Surprisingly, clustered evolution is a relatively rare phenomenon. Only between 2% and 10% of the genes we analyze contain a statistically significant mutation cluster. We also find that not controlling for solvent accessibility leads to an excess of clusters in terminal and solvent-exposed regions of proteins. Our algorithm provides a novel method to identify functionally relevant divergence between groups of species. Moreover, it could also be useful to detect artifacts in automatically assembled genomes

Heterogeneous shedding of influenza by human subjects and its implications for epidemiology and control

International audienceHeterogeneity of infectiousness is an important feature of the spread of many infections, with implications for disease dynamics and control, but its relevance to human influenza virus is still unclear. For a transmission event to occur, an infected individual needs to release infectious particles via respiratory symptoms. Key factors to take into account are virus dynamics, particle release in relation to respiratory symptoms, the amount of virus shed and, importantly, how these vary between infected individuals. A quantitative understanding of the process of influenza transmission is relevant to designing effective mitigation measures. Here we develop an influenza infection dynamics model fitted to virological, systemic and respiratory symptoms to investigate how within-host dynamics relates to infectiousness. We show that influenza virus shedding is highly heterogeneous between subjects. From analysis of data on experimental infections, we find that a small proportion (<20%) of influenza infected individuals are responsible for the production of 95% of infectious particles. Our work supports targeting mitigation measures at most infectious subjects to efficiently reduce transmission. The effectiveness of public health interventions targeted at highly infectious individuals would depend on accurate identification of these subjects and on how quickly control measures can be applied