4 research outputs found
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Aviation turbulence: dynamics, forecasting, and response to climate change
Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future
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Clear-air turbulence in a changing climate
How might the processes generating clear-air turbulence change in a warmer world? We know that observations support an association between clear-air turbulence and shear instability. We also know that the upper atmospheric wind shears are changing in response to greenhouse gas forcing. In particular, theoretical reasoning and climate model simulations both suggest that the vertical shear in horizontal wind is increasing in magnitude at typical aircraft cruising altitudes in the middle latitudes, especially in the winter months in each hemisphere. This increased shearing implies that clear-air turbulence may itself be changing as a consequence of climate change. This chapter reviews the various lines of observational and model-based evidence for trends in clear-air turbulence, by analyzing data from turbulence encounters with aircraft, turbulence diagnosed from reanalysis datasets, passenger injuries caused by turbulence, and turbulence diagnosed from climate models. The possibility of anthropogenic trends in clear-air turbulence opens up a whole new field of academic study, which exists at the interface between the two scientific disciplines of aviation turbulence and climate change. We call for future work to improve our understanding of this poorly understood but potentially important impact of climate change