An area-based matrix model for uneven-aged forests

In this paper a new concept for modeling uneven-aged forests (UEAF) is presented. The term UEAF in this article encloses all forests that deviate from the even-aged structure. The matrix model is area-based, in that the forest under study is described by a distribution of areas over fixed state-spaces spanned by stem number and volume per hectare classes. Dynamics is introduced as transitions of areas inside the state-space during the simulation. Harvesting activities and the occurrence of calamities are explicitly handled. The model is designed to be suitable for large-scale analyses. The concept was tested in an application to Austrian National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Results shown, including a comparison to older inventory data, indicate that it is worth further elaborating on the concept and the model. The work will be continued and in the next step the model concept will be applied in several other countries.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

An integrated modelling framework for the forest-based bioeconomy

This paper describes the conceptual design of a modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model, cost-supply curves and a forest ownership decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

The European Forestry Dynamics Model: Concept, design and results of first case studies

The European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM) is a joint effort between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and partners in the EU Member States for the development of a forestry dynamics model. The model is expected to project the state of Europe’s forests given different climatic, economic and management scenarios. EFDM was designed as a flexible system to facilitate the different types of data input that are available from the diverse National Forest Inventories. The model captures different typologies such as site productivity, ownership and the probability of natural disturbances. Specifically, EFDM is able to process detailed national-level input data such as National Forest Inventories (NFI) outputs, as well as related national-level expertise in social and economic domains. In this way, the system supports effective utilization of the collaborative expertise in the parameterization of scenarios. This document is intended as a general introduction to the EFDM. Experiences gained from the EFDM test applications by five NFI teams (Austria, Finland, France, Portugal and Sweden) are also summarized in this report.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System

Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is crucial for accurately assessing the impact of policy and market drivers on forest resources. A serious shortcoming of existing pan-European Decision Support Systems (DSS) is that they do not account for such heterogeneity, consequently disregarding the effects that this might have on timber supply and forest development. Linking a behavioral harvesting decision model—Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA)—to a forest resource dynamics model—European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM)—we provide an example of how forest owner specific characterization can be integrated in a DSS. The simulation results indicate that the approach holds promise as regards accounting for forest owner behavior in simulations of forest resources development. Hence, forest owner heterogeneity makes the distribution of forest land on owner types non-trivial, as it affects harvesting intensity and, subsequently, inter-temporal forest development.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat