Enhancing Trajectory-Based Operations for UAVs through Hexagonal Grid Indexing: A Step towards 4D Integration of UTM and ATM

Aviation is expected to face a surge in the number of manned aircraft and drones in the coming years, making it necessary to integrate Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) into Air Traffic Management (ATM) to ensure safe and efficient operations. This research proposes a novel hexagonal grid-based 4D trajectory representation framework for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) traffic management that overcomes the limitations of existing square/cubic trajectory representation methods. The proposed model employs a hierarchical indexing structure using hexagonal cells, enabling efficient ground based strategic conflict detection and conflict free 4D trajectory planning. Additionally, the use of Hexagonal Discrete Global Grid Systems provides a more accurate representation of UAV trajectories, improved sampling efficiency and higher angular resolution. The proposed approach can be used for predeparture conflict free 4D trajectory planning, reducing computational complexity and memory requirements while improving the accuracy of strategic trajectory conflict detection. The proposed framework can also be extended for air traffic flow management trajectory planning, Air Traffic Control (ATC) workload measurement, sector capacity estimation, dynamics airspace sectorization using hexagonal sectors and traffic density calculation, contributing to the development of an efficient UTM system, and facilitating the integration of UAVs into the national airspace system with AT

Predictability improvement of Scheduled Flights Departure Time Variation using Supervised Machine Learning

The departure time uncertainty exacerbates the inaccuracy of arrival time estimation and demand for arrival slots, particularly for movements to capacity constrained airports. The Estimated Take-Off Time (ETOT) or Estimated Departure Time(ETD) for each individual flight is currently derived from Air Traffic Flow Management System (ATFMS), which are solely determined based on individual flight plan Estimated Off Block Time(EOBT) or subsequent delays updated by Airline. Even if normal weather conditions prevail, aircraft departure times will differ from ETOTs determined by the ATFMS due to a number of factors such as congestion, early/delayed inbound flight (linked flights), reactionary delays and air traffic flow management slot changes. This paper presents a model that predicts departure time variance based on the previous leg departure time using a combination of exponential moving average and machine learning methods. The model correctly classifies the departure time (Early, On Time, Delay) based on the previous leg departure state, allowing the ATFM system to measure the arrival time of a capacity constrained airport with greater accuracy and better assess demand requirements. The results show that the proposed model with M5P Regression tree provides the best results, with Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.43 and 4.83, respectively, indicating a 50% improvement over previous research findings. Whereas, with logistic regression, the classification of departure time (Early, On Time, Delay) is achieved a better accuracy of 91 %, which is higher than previous works

Prediction of Gate In Time of Scheduled Flights and Schedule Conformance using Machine Learning-based Algorithms

Prediction of Gate to Gate block time for scheduled flights is considered as one of the challenging tasks in Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM)system. Establishing an effective and practically reliable model to manage the problem of block time variation is a significant work. The airlines do tend to pad or inflate block time to Actual Block time to calculate Schedule block times which is approved by aviation regulator. This will lead to flaws in air traffic flow strategic decision-making and in turn affect the efficiency, estimation and undesirable delays, which leads to traffic congestion and inefficient ground delay programs. This study evaluates the effectiveness of nonlinear and time varying regression models to predict block time with minimal attributes in order to solve the problem of difficulty in predicting the block time variation. The key research outcome of this paper is to trace the temporal variations of flying time for different aircraft types and to predict the variation of actual arrival time from the scheduled arrival time at the destination airport. Ultimately, a combination of M5P regression model and logistic regression model is proposed to predict early, delayed and on-time conformity with approved schedules. Analysis based on a realistic data set of a domestic airport pair (Mumbai International Airport and New Delhi International Airport) in India shows that the proposed model is able to predict in block time at the time of departure with an accuracy of minutes for of test instances. As a result of the scheduled arrival time performance (early, delayed and timely) has been classified accurately using Logistic regression Classifier of machine learning. The test results show that the proposed model uses a minimum number of attributes and less computational time to more accurately predict the actual arrival time and scheduled arrival performance without details on the weather

Optimising Airport Ground Resource Allocation for Multiple Aircraft Using Machine Learning-Based Arrival Time Prediction

Managing aircraft turnaround is a complex process due to various factors, including passenger handling. Airport ground handling, resource planning, optimal manpower, and equipment utilisation are some cost-cutting strategies, particularly for airlines and ground handling service teams. Scheduled aircraft arrival and departure times are critical aspects of the entire ground management and passenger handling process. This research aimed to optimise airport ground resource allocation for multiple aircraft using machine learning-based prediction methodologies to enhance the prediction of aircraft arrival time, an uncontrollable variable. Our proposed models include a multiple linear regression (MLR) model and a multilayer perceptron (MLP)-based model, both of which are used for predicting round-trip arrival times. Additionally, we developed a MLP-based model for multiclass classification of arrival delays based on departure time and delay from the same airport. Under normal weather conditions and operational scenarios, the models were able to predict round-trip arrival times with a root mean squared error of 8 min for each origin–destination pair and classify arrival delays with an average accuracy of 93.5%. Our findings suggest that machine learning-based approaches can be used to predict round-trip arrival times based on the departure time from the same airport, and thereby accurately estimate the number of actual flight movements per hour well in advance. This predictability enables optimised ground resource planning for multiple aircraft based on constrained airport resource deployment and utilisation