7 research outputs found
LUGH - Mercury Pathfinder Mission:Proposal submitted to ESA in response to the Announcement of Opportunity for F1/F2 missions
Evaluation of a Revised Interplanetary Shock Prediction Model: 1D CESE-HD-2 Solar-Wind Model
Low-Frequency Type-II Radio Detections and Coronagraph Data Employed to Describe and Forecast the Propagation of 71 CMEs/Shocks
The vulnerability of technology on which present society relies demands that
a solar event, its time of arrival at Earth, and its degree of geoeffectiveness
be promptly forecasted. Motivated by improving predictions of arrival times at
Earth of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we have analyzed 71
Earth-directed events in different stages of their propagation. The study is
primarily based on approximated locations of interplanetary (IP) shocks derived
from type II radio emissions detected by the Wind/WAVES experiment during
1997-2007. Distance-time diagrams resulting from the combination of white-light
corona, IP type II radio, and in situ data lead to the formulation of
descriptive profiles of each CME's journey toward Earth. Furthermore, two
different methods to track and predict the location of CME-driven IP shocks are
presented. The linear method, solely based on Wind/WAVES data, arises after key
modifications to a pre-existing technique that linearly projects the drifting
low-frequency type II emissions to 1 AU. This upgraded method improves
forecasts of shock arrival time by almost 50%. The second predictive method is
proposed on the basis of information derived from the descriptive profiles, and
relies on a single CME height-time point and on low-frequency type II radio
emissions to obtain an approximate value of the shock arrival time at Earth. In
addition, we discuss results on CME-radio emission associations,
characteristics of IP propagation, and the relative success of the forecasting
methods.Comment: Solar Physics; Accepted for publication 2015-Apr-2