Using Markov Models and Statistics to Learn, Extract, Fuse, and Detect Patterns in Raw Data

Many systems are partially stochastic in nature. We have derived data driven approaches for extracting stochastic state machines (Markov models) directly from observed data. This chapter provides an overview of our approach with numerous practical applications. We have used this approach for inferring shipping patterns, exploiting computer system side-channel information, and detecting botnet activities. For contrast, we include a related data-driven statistical inferencing approach that detects and localizes radiation sources.Comment: Accepted by 2017 International Symposium on Sensor Networks, Systems and Securit

Reliability and validity of opiate use self-report in a population at high risk for esophageal cancer in Golestan, Iran

Objective: To assess the reliability and validity of self-reported opium use in a rural Iranian population at high risk for esophageal cancer in preparation for a large cohort study. Method: 1,057 subjects ages 33 to 84 years were recruited from Gonbad city and three surrounding villages in Golestan province of Iran and completed a questionnaire and provided biological samples. The history and duration of using opium, smoking tobacco, chewing nass, and drinking alcohol were measured by questionnaire in the entire cohort. A subgroup of 130 people was reinterviewed after 2 months to assess reliability. Validity of the opium question was assessed by comparing the questionnaire responses with the presence of codeine and morphine in the urine of 150 selected subjects. Results: Self-reported opiate use is reliable and valid in this population. The reliability of ever opium use and duration of opium use had κ′s of 0.96 and 0.74, respectively. The validity of self-reported opium use was also high. Using urine codeine or morphine as the gold standard for use of opium, self-report had a sensitivity of 0.93 and a specificity of 0.89. Conclusions: The self-reported use of opium can provide a reliable and valid measurement in this population and will be useful for studying associations between opium use and occurrence of esophageal cancer and other diseases

Recommendations for dietary calcium intake and bone health: the role of health literacy

Osteoporosis, a common disease of the skeleton, involves microarchitecturaldeterioration of the bone matrix and depletion of bonemineral; this results in an increased susceptibility to fracture [1]. Postfracture,there is a plethora of financial, personal and psychosocialoutcomes, including reduced mobility, impairment of daily activities,inability to work and loss of confidence [2,3]. A hip fracture has themost severe implications: one in five individuals die within the firstyear, while 60% of individuals who survive a hip fracture still requireassistance to walk one year later, and 33% are totally dependent or areadmitted to a nursing home [2,4]. Bone mass is an important predictorof osteoporosis, and future fracture risk [5], and calcium plays animportant role in normal growth, development and maintenance of theskeleton [6], including providing a dynamic store to maintain theintra- and extra-cellular calcium pools [7]. Calcium homeostasis isregulated by an integrated hormonal system that involves calcitonin,parathyroid hormone (PTH) and the PTH receptor, and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D and the vitamin D receptor [7,8], along withserum ionized calcium, and the calcium-sensing receptor [9]. Whenplasma concentrations of ionized calcium fall below optimal levels,bone resorption increases in order to restore the mineral equilibrium

Mortality and cancer in relation to ABO blood group phenotypes in the Golestan Cohort Study

Background: A few studies have shown an association between blood group alleles and vascular disease, including atherosclerosis, which is thought to be due to the higher level of von Willebrand factor in these individuals and the association of blood group locus variants with plasma lipid levels. No large population-based study has explored this association with overall and cause-specific mortality. Methods: We aimed to study the association between ABO blood groups and overall and cause-specific mortality in the Golestan Cohort Study. In this cohort, 50,045 people 40- to 70-years old were recruited between 2004 and 2008, and followed annually to capture all incident cancers and deaths due to any cause. We used Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, smoking, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, place of residence, education and opium use. Results: During a total of 346,708 person-years of follow-up (mean duration 6.9 years), 3,623 cohort participants died. Non-O blood groups were associated with significantly increased total mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01 to 1.17) and cardiovascular disease mortality (HR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.27). Blood group was not significantly associated with overall cancer mortality, but people with group A, group B, and all non-O blood groups combined had increased risk of incident gastric cancer. In a subgroup of cohort participants, we also showed higher plasma total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) in those with blood group A. Conclusions: Non-O blood groups have an increased mortality, particularly due to cardiovascular diseases, which may be due to the effect of blood group alleles on blood biochemistry or their effect on von Willebrand factor and factor VIII levels. \ua9 Etemadi et al

Large body size and sedentary lifestyle during childhood and early adulthood and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a high-risk population

Background: Little is known about the association of obesity and physical activity at young ages with subsequent risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Patients and methods: Between 2003 and 2007, we conducted a case-control study in a high-risk population in northeastern Iran. Three hundred ESCC cases and 571 matched controls were recruited. Each individual was shown a standard pictogram, to report body size at ages 15 and 30. Demographic and health-related information, including physical activity at these ages was also collected. Results: In the fully adjusted models, very obese body size (last two pictograms) at age 15 odds ratio (OR) 3.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-7.7 and age 30 (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1-8.5) were associated with ESCC in women, but not in men. Sedentary work at age 15 (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.3-8.3) and 30 (OR 18.2, 95% CI 3.9-86.2) were also associated with ESCC risk in women only. The increased risk in women at age 15 remained high after later reduction in body size, while women who became very obese only at age 30 did not show a significantly increased risk. Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of early lifestyle modifications in the context of cancer prevention, particularly in women. © Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved

Tooth loss and lack of regular oral hygiene are associated with higher risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

We tested the association between tooth loss and oral hygiene and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in people living in a high-risk area of Iran. We used a case-control study of pathologically confirmed ESCC cases (n = 283) and controls (n = 560) matched on sex, age, and neighborhood. Subjects with ESCC had significantly more decayed, missing, or filled teeth (DMFT) with a median (interquartile range) of 31 (23-32) compared with controls 28 (16-32; P = 0.0045). Subjects with ESCC were significantly more likely than controls to fail to practice regular oral hygiene (78 versus 58). In multivariate-adjusted conditional logistic regression models, having 32 DMFT compared with ≤15 conferred an odds ratio (95 confidence interval) of 2.10 (1.19-3.70). Compared with daily tooth brushing, practicing no regular oral hygiene conferred an odds ratio (95 confidence interval) of 2.37 (1.42-3.97). Restricting the analysis to subjects that had never smoked tobacco did not materially alter these results. We found significant associations between two markers of poor oral hygiene, a larger number of DMFT and lack of daily tooth brushing, and risk of ESCC in a population at high risk for ESCC where many cases occur in never smokers. Our results are consistent with several previous analyses in other high-risk populations. Copyright © 2008 American Association for Cancer Research

Macrophage Ontogeny Underlies Differences in Tumor-Specific Education in Brain Malignancies.

Extensive transcriptional and ontogenetic diversity exists among normal tissue-resident macrophages, with unique transcriptional profiles endowing the cells with tissue-specific functions. However, it is unknown whether the origins of different macrophage populations affect their roles in malignancy. Given potential artifacts associated with irradiation-based lineage tracing, it remains unclear if bone-marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs) are present in tumors of the brain, a tissue with no homeostatic involvement of BMDMs. Here, we employed multiple models of murine brain malignancy and genetic lineage tracing to demonstrate that BMDMs are abundant in primary and metastatic brain tumors. Our data indicate that distinct transcriptional networks in brain-resident microglia and recruited BMDMs are associated with tumor-mediated education yet are also influenced by chromatin landscapes established before tumor initiation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that microglia specifically repress Itga4 (CD49D), enabling its utility as a discriminatory marker between microglia and BMDMs in primary and metastatic disease in mouse and human

Prevalence, awareness and risk factors of hypertension in a large cohort of Iranian adult population

Background: There is considerable variation in hypertension prevalence and awareness, and their correlates, across different geographic locations and ethnic groups. We performed this cross-sectional analysis on data from the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS). Methods: Enrollment in this study occurred in 2004-2008, and included 50 045 healthy individuals from Golestan Province in northeastern Iran. Hypertension was defined as a SBP at least 140 mmHg, a DBP at least 90 mmHg, a prior diagnosis of hypertension, or the use of antihypertensive drugs. Potential correlates of hypertension and its awareness were analyzed by logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, BMI, place of residence, literacy, ethnicity, physical activity, smoking, black and green tea consumption and wealth score. Results: Of the total cohort participants, 21 350 (42.7) were hypertensive. Age-standardized prevalence of hypertension, using the 2001 WHO standard world population, was 41.8 (95 confidence interval: 38.3-45.2). Hypertension was directly associated with female sex, increased BMI, Turkmen ethnicity, and lack of physical activity, and inversely associated with drinking black tea and wealth score. Among hypertensive patients, 46.2 were aware of their disease, 17.6 were receiving antihypertensive medication, and 32.1 of the treated patients had controlled hypertension. Hypertension awareness was greater among women, the elderly, overweight and obese patients, and those with a higher wealth score. Conclusion: Hypertension is highly prevalent in rural Iran, many of the affected individuals are unaware of their disease, and the rate of control by antihypertensive medications is low. Increasing hypertension awareness and access to health services, especially among less privileged residents are recommended. © Lippincott Williams and Wilkins

Smoking water-pipe, chewing nass and prevalence of heart disease: A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

Objective Water-pipe and smokeless tobacco use have been associated with several adverse health outcomes. However, little information is available on the association between water-pipe use and heart disease (HD). Therefore, we investigated the association of smoking water-pipe and chewing nass (a mixture of tobacco, lime and ash) with prevalent HD. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Baseline data (collected in 2004-2008) from a prospective population-based study in Golestan Province, Iran. Participants 50 045 residents of Golestan (40-75 years old; 42.4 men). Main outcome measures ORs and 95 CIs from multivariate logistic regression models for the association of water-pipe and nass use with HD prevalence. Results A total of 3051 (6.1) participants reported a history of HD, and 525 (1.1) and 3726 (7.5) reported ever water-pipe or nass use, respectively. Heavy water-pipe smoking was significantly associated with HD prevalence (highest level of cumulative use vs never use, OR=3.75; 95 CI 1.52 to 9.22; p for trend=0.04). This association persisted when using different cut-off points, when restricting HD to those taking nitrate compound medications, and among never cigarette smokers. There was no significant association between nass use and HD prevalence (highest category of use vs never use, OR=0.91; 95 CI 0.69 to 1.20). Conclusions Our study suggests a significant association between HD and heavy water-pipe smoking. Although the existing evidence suggesting similar biological consequences of water-pipe and cigarette smoking make this association plausible, results of our study were based on a modest number of water-pipe users and need to be replicated in further studies