2,731 research outputs found
A Bayesian Approach to Comparing Cosmic Ray Energy Spectra
A common problem in ultra-high energy cosmic ray physics is the comparison of
energy spectra. The question is whether the spectra from two experiments or two
regions of the sky agree within their statistical and systematic uncertainties.
We develop a method to directly compare energy spectra for ultra-high energy
cosmic rays from two different regions of the sky in the same experiment
without reliance on agreement with a theoretical model of the energy spectra.
The consistency between the two spectra is expressed in terms of a Bayes
factor, defined here as the ratio of the likelihood of the two-parent source
hypothesis to the likelihood of the one-parent source hypothesis. Unlike other
methods, for example chi^2 tests, the Bayes factor allows for the calculation
of the posterior odds ratio and correctly accounts for non-Gaussian
uncertainties. The latter is particularly important at the highest energies,
where the number of events is very small.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in Ap
Production delays, supply distortions and endogenous price dynamics
It takes time to produce commodities, and different production technologies may take different lengths of time. Suppose that firms may switch between different production technologies that take different lengths of time. A natural implication of such a scenario is that not all firms would then offer their commodities in every period, i.e. firms’ total
supply schedule would become a time-varying quantity. Based on a behavioral cobweb framework, we analytically demonstrate that commodity markets become unstable when firms switch too rapidly between production technologies that take different lengths of time. In particular, we observe that supply distortions lead to endogenous
commodity price dynamics due to a mismatch between supply and demand
Unifying thermodynamic and kinetic descriptions of single-molecule processes: RNA unfolding under tension
We use mesoscopic non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory to describe RNA
unfolding under tension. The theory introduces reaction coordinates,
characterizing a continuum of states for each bond in the molecule. The
unfolding considered is so slow that one can assume local equilibrium in the
space of the reaction coordinates. In the quasi-stationary limit of high
sequential barriers, our theory yields the master equation of a recently
proposed sequential-step model. Non-linear switching kinetics is found between
open and closed states. Our theory unifies the thermodynamic and kinetic
descriptions and offers a systematic procedure to characterize the dynamics of
the unfolding processComment: 13 pages, 3 figure
Generalized Smoluchowski equation with correlation between clusters
In this paper we compute new reaction rates of the Smoluchowski equation
which takes into account correlations. The new rate K = KMF + KC is the sum of
two terms. The first term is the known Smoluchowski rate with the mean-field
approximation. The second takes into account a correlation between clusters.
For this purpose we introduce the average path of a cluster. We relate the
length of this path to the reaction rate of the Smoluchowski equation. We solve
the implicit dependence between the average path and the density of clusters.
We show that this correlation length is the same for all clusters. Our result
depends strongly on the spatial dimension d. The mean-field term KMFi,j = (Di +
Dj)(rj + ri)d-2, which vanishes for d = 1 and is valid up to logarithmic
correction for d = 2, is the usual rate found with the Smoluchowski model
without correlation (where ri is the radius and Di is the diffusion constant of
the cluster). We compute a new rate: the correlation rate K_{i,j}^{C}
(D_i+D_j)(r_j+r_i)^{d-1}M{\big(\frac{d-1}{d_f}}\big) is valid for d \leq
1(where M(\alpha) = \sum+\infty i=1i\alphaNi is the moment of the density of
clusters and df is the fractal dimension of the cluster). The result is valid
for a large class of diffusion processes and mass radius relations. This
approach confirms some analytical solutions in d 1 found with other methods. We
also show Monte Carlo simulations which illustrate some exact new solvable
models
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