Observations and scaling of tidal mass transport across the lower Ganges–Brahmaputra delta plain: implications for delta management and sustainability

The landscape of southwest Bangladesh, a region constructed primarily by fluvial processes associated with the Ganges River and Brahmaputra River, is now maintained almost exclusively by tidal processes as the fluvial system has migrated east and eliminated the most direct fluvial input. In natural areas such as the Sundarbans National Forest, year-round inundation during spring high tides delivers sufficient sediment that enables vertical accretion to keep pace with relative sea-level rise. However, recent human modification of the landscape in the form of embankment construction has terminated this pathway of sediment delivery for much of the region, resulting in a startling elevation imbalance, with inhabited areas often sitting &gt;1&thinsp;m below mean high water. Restoring this landscape, or preventing land loss in the natural system, requires an understanding of how rates of water and sediment flux vary across timescales ranging from hours to months. In this study, we combine time series observations of water level, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration with ship-based measurements of large tidal-channel hydrodynamics and sediment transport. To capture the greatest possible range of variability, cross-channel transects designed to encompass a 12.4&thinsp;h tidal cycle were performed in both dry and wet seasons during spring and neap tides. Regional suspended sediment concentration begins to increase in August, coincident with a decrease in local salinity, indicating the arrival of the sediment-laden, freshwater plume of the combined Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna rivers. We observe profound seasonality in sediment transport, despite comparatively modest seasonal variability in the magnitude of water discharge. These observations emphasize the importance of seasonal sediment delivery from the main-stem rivers to this remote tidal region. On tidal timescales, spring tides transport an order of magnitude more sediment than neap tides in both the wet and dry seasons. In aggregate, sediment transport is flood oriented, likely as a result of tidal pumping. Finally, we note that rates of sediment and water discharge in the tidal channels are of the same scale as the annually averaged values for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. These observations provide context for examining the relative importance of fluvial and tidal processes in what has been defined as a quintessentially tidally influenced delta in the classification scheme of Galloway (1975). These data also inform critical questions regarding the timing and magnitude of sediment delivery to the region, which are especially important in predicting and preparing for responses of the natural system to ongoing environmental change.</p

Sediment Delivery to Sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities

Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise

The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence

Salt Marsh Accretion and Storm Tide Variation: an Example from a Barrier Island in the North Sea

We reconstruct past accretion rates of a salt marsh on the island of Sylt, Germany, using measurements of the radioisotopes 210Pb and 137Cs, as well as historical aerial photographs. Results from three cores indicate accretion rates varying between 1 and 16 mm year−1. Comparisons with tide gauge data show that high accretion rates during the 1980s and 1990s coincide with periods of increased storm activity. We identify a critical inundation height of 18 cm below which the strength of a storm seems to positively influence salt marsh accretion rates and above which the frequency of storms becomes the major factor. In addition to sea level rise, we conclude that in low marsh zones subject to higher inundation levels, mean storm strength is the major factor affecting marsh accretion, whereas in high marsh zones with lower inundation levels, it is storm frequency that impacts marsh accretion