Cambio climático y anfibios

Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species.Las historias vitales de los anfibios son sumamente sensibles a la temperatura y a la precipitación, y hay una clara evidencia que el reciente cambio climático ha tenido como resultado para algunas especies una anticipación del periodo de cría a lo largo del año. También se cree que el aumento reciente en la ocurrencia de fenómenos de El Niño ha causado el descenso de anuros en América Central y está relacionado con la mortalidad elevada de embriones de anfibios en el noroeste de los Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, la evidencia que relaciona el descenso de anfibios en América Central con el clima está basado únicamente en correlaciones, y no se entienden los mecanismos fundamentales que provocan este descenso. No se han podido demostrar las conexiones entre la mortalidad de embriones y el descenso de abundancia. El análisis de los datos generalmente falla a la hora de encontrar una conexión entre descensos de anfibios y el clima. Es probable, sin embargo, que posteriores cambios climáticos puedan causar descensos adicionales de algunas especies de anfibios. La humedad reducida de la tierra podría reducir las especies presa y eliminar el habitat. La reducción de nevadas invernales y el incremento de la evaporación en verano podrían tener efectos dramáticos en la duración u ocurrencia de pantanos estacionales, que es el habitat principal para muchas especies de anfibios. El cambio del clima puede ser una causa relativamente secundaria de los descensos actuales de anfibios, pero en el futuro puede ser el desafío más grande a la persistencia de muchas especies

Humanitarian Regulation of Hostiles: The Decisive Element of Context

Today, isolated force-on-force battles are considered a relic of the past. Instead, armed forces must expect to conduct combined arms maneuver operations in and around civilians and civilian population centers. And this expectation is only increased when anticipating operations against enemies who see embedding their vital assets in densely populated areas as a force multiplier. This perception is based on not only the inherent tactical advantages of embedding assets among civilian population centers (such as ready access to logistics and lines of communication), but also their recognition that the complexity of conducting operations against these assets in a legally compliant manner will inhibit the efforts of their state opponents. All of this points towards the importance of a more comprehensive understanding of targeting reasonableness--an understanding based on the tactical situation that frames attack decisions and the nature of the combat operation in which those decisions are made. This latter aspect of assessing attack reasonableness will be enhanced by considering not only whether an attack decision is deliberate or dynamic/time-sensitive but also the impact of the mission-type context of operations. As this Article will explain, because operations conducted pursuant to mission-type orders involve inherently decentralized attack decisions, the expectation of what is or is not reasonable is different than in the context of deliberate attack decisions. Because of this, those responsible for implementing LOAC obligations and assessing compliance with these obligations should lead to a prioritization of the rule of precautionary measures as the focal point for civilian risk mitigation

Regulating Hostilities in Non-International Armed Conflicts: Thoughts on Bridging the Divide between the Tadić Aspiration and Conflict Realities

International Humanitarian Law (IHL) evolved to strike a rational balance between the necessity of using combat power to defeat enemy opponents, and the humanitarian interest of mitigating the human suffering resulting from armed conflict. Ironically, however, the “type” of conflict most comprehensively regulated by this law—international or inter-State (IACs)—is not the “type” of armed conflict that has been most notable for producing humanitarian suffering since the end of World War II. Instead, non-international armed conflicts (NIACs)—conflicts between States and organized non-State belligerent groups, or even between multiple non-State belligerent groups—have been notorious for their brutality, indifference towards humanitarian restraint, and infliction of human suffering. Unfortunately, international humanitarian law has struggled to effectively regulate these conflicts, in large measure because it is a body of law that treated these all too common conflicts as a secondary focus. Perhaps the most significant response to this delta between the reality of NIACs and the lack of comprehensive legal regulation has been the “migration” or “extension” of IAC rules and principles to the realm of NIACs. This has been most notable in relation to the regulation of lethal combat power, resulting in rules that apply today across the spectrum of conflict. Still, the world continues to witness NIACs where this migration appears to produce negligible positive effect. The conflict in Ukraine provides the most recent, but by no means unique, example of the delta between the aspiration of more effective NIAC regulation and the reality of NIAC brutality. This article focuses on the challenge of how to improve the efficacy of IHL in the NIAC domain. First, it considers how strategic interests in NIACs are problematically weighted against humanitarian restraint. Second, proposes several approaches that may contribute to more effective NIAC regulation that build on existing law and regulation. Finally, it argues that more must be done to align the nature of IHL regulation with the reality of NIACs. Ultimately, with war an inevitable aspect of human relations, all too unpredictable in its permutations, but tragically all too predictable in its brutality, striving for such advances is as important today as it has ever been