Dialog System for Modeling Multidimensional Demographic Processes

A growing understanding of the importance of demographic processes in social and economic development places greater demands on the quality of demographic research and on the adequacy and convenience of tools used in the analysis of a population's characteristics. Multistate population models recently became popular in the study of many aspects of demographic transitions, such as migration, marriage, changes of health status, social status, occupation, etc.. Computer programs and software packages were developed to realize such models. However, most of these allow analysis of systems only when fertility, mortality, or transition coefficients do not depend on time. Some authors have overcome this drawback and have created the opportunity to analyze alternative evolutions of the system under various scenarios of natural and mechanical reproduction of the population. However, these programs are not always appropriate for use by the many demographers and health specialists who are not deeply involved in computer modeling. The software is often not flexible enough to enable choices of and changes in the variables that determine the scenarios, the representation of the results, and the control of modeling itself. The most important disadvantage of these packages is the inability to communicate interactively with the model. As experience shows, interactively working with computers essentially reduces the time spent on model design and debugging. It also creates additional opportunities for model analysis. Thus, there is a necessity to create a user-friendly system that allows a more effective analysis of demographic processes. In this paper an interactive system that uses the multistate demographic models is described. The system provides the opportunity to prepare scenarios, change coefficients of the model during the modeling procedure, and present intermediate results. The paper uses some results of research conducted at VNIISI and at IIASA: namely, the design of the man-machine modeling system and the modeling of multistate demographic processes

Strain-Compensated AlInGaAs-GaAsP Superlattices for Highly-Polarized Electron Emission

Spin-polarized electron emission from the first superlattice photocathodes developed with strain compensation is investigated. An opposite strain in the quantum well and barrier layers is complished using an InAlGaAs/GaAsP superlattice structure. The measured values of maximum polarization and quantum yield for the structure with a 0.18 um-thick working layer are close to the best results reported for any strained superlattice photocathode structure, demonstrating the high potential of strain compensation for future photocathode applications. An analysis of the photoemission spectra is used to estimate the parameters responsible for the polarization losses.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Standard Regulation of Corporate Management

Management of corporation through its standard regulation, in comparison with the standard national system of standardization, is more expedient as there is an opportunity to establish corporate rules of development and application of the standards taking into account structure and specifics of industrial corporation and/or area of its activity taking into account interests of all interested parties, including regional interests. For creation of own system of standardization in corporation it is necessary to analyse kinds of activity, to establish, what are expedient for regulating by means of standardization, and then to define head enterprise of industrial corporation which will perform organizational and methodical management of works on corporate standardization. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n24p44

Estimation and Validation of a Multiattribute Model of Alzheimer Disease Progression

OBJECTIVES: To estimate and validate a multiattribute model of the clinical course of Alzheimer disease (AD) from mild AD to death in a high-quality prospective cohort study, and to estimate the impact of hypothetical modifications to AD progression rates on costs associated with Medicare and Medicaid services. DATA AND METHODS: The authors estimated sex-specific longitudinal Grade of Membership (GoM) models for AD patients (103 men, 149 women) in the initial cohort of the Predictors Study (1989-2001) based on 80 individual measures obtained every 6 mo for 10 y. These models were replicated for AD patients (106 men, 148 women) in the 2nd Predictors Study cohort (1997-2007). Model validation required that the disease-specific transition parameters be identical for both Predictors Study cohorts. Medicare costs were estimated from the National Long Term Care Survey. RESULTS: Sex-specific models were validated using the 2nd Predictors Study cohort with the GoM transition parameters constrained to the values estimated for the 1st Predictors Study cohort; 57 to 61 of the 80 individual measures contributed significantly to the GoM models. Simulated, cost-free interventions in the rate of progression of AD indicated that large potential cost offsets could occur for patients at the earliest stages of AD. CONCLUSIONS: AD progression is characterized by a small number of parameters governing changes in large numbers of correlated indicators of AD severity. The analysis confirmed that the progression of AD represents a complex multidimensional physiological process that is similar across different study cohorts. The estimates suggested that there could be large cost offsets to Medicare and Medicaid from the slowing of AD progression among patients with mild AD. The methodology appears generally applicable in AD modeling

Evaluating the effectiveness of public health financing based on financial and non-financial indicators in terms of the knowledge economy

In conditions of the knowledge economy human capital, human value are the main factors of economic growth and prosperity of the state. Qualitative characteristics of human capital are indicators of public health. Therefore, one of the most important tasks of the state is to assess the effectiveness of financing public health expenditures. The methodological base of the research was the methods of system and economic analysis, mathematical statistics and decision optimization, which resulted in the identification of factors influencing the resource supply, availability and quality of public health. The formation of a comprehensive indicator of the effectiveness of the public health system based on the system of financial and non-financial indicators will allow to form numerically an assessment of the effectiveness of investments in public health and draw conclusions about the resources' provision, level of development, accessibility and quality of public health. The obtained results can be used in making effective public financial decisions, which allow to achieve an increase of accessibility and quality of health care, focusing on the human capital in conditions of knowledge economy.peer-reviewe