Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.</p

Integrated vector management for malaria control

Integrated vector management (IVM) is defined as "a rational decision-making process for the optimal use of resources for vector control" and includes five key elements: 1) evidence-based decision-making, 2) integrated approaches 3), collaboration within the health sector and with other sectors, 4) advocacy, social mobilization, and legislation, and 5) capacity-building. In 2004, the WHO adopted IVM globally for the control of all vector-borne diseases. Important recent progress has been made in developing and promoting IVM for national malaria control programmes in Africa at a time when successful malaria control programmes are scaling-up with insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and/or indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage. While interventions using only ITNs and/or IRS successfully reduce transmission intensity and the burden of malaria in many situations, it is not clear if these interventions alone will achieve those critical low levels that result in malaria elimination. Despite the successful employment of comprehensive integrated malaria control programmes, further strengthening of vector control components through IVM is relevant, especially during the "end-game" where control is successful and further efforts are required to go from low transmission situations to sustained local and country-wide malaria elimination. To meet this need and to ensure sustainability of control efforts, malaria control programmes should strengthen their capacity to use data for decision-making with respect to evaluation of current vector control programmes, employment of additional vector control tools in conjunction with ITN/IRS tactics, case-detection and treatment strategies, and determine how much and what types of vector control and interdisciplinary input are required to achieve malaria elimination. Similarly, on a global scale, there is a need for continued research to identify and evaluate new tools for vector control that can be integrated with existing biomedical strategies within national malaria control programmes. This review provides an overview of how IVM programmes are being implemented, and provides recommendations for further development of IVM to meet the goals of national malaria control programmes in Africa