Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change

Companies undertaking initial public offerings (IPOs) in Greece were obliged to include next-year profit forecast in their prospectuses, until the regulation changed in 2001 to voluntary forecasting. Drawing evidence from IPOs issued in the period 1993–2015, this is the first study to investigate the effect of disclosure regime on management earnings forecasts and IPO long-term performance. The findings show mainly positive forecast errors (forecasts are lower than actual earnings) and higher long-term returns during the mandatory period, suggesting that the mandatory disclosure requirement causes issuers to systematically bias profit forecasts downwards as they opt for the safety of accounting conservatism. The mandatory disclosure requirement artificially improves IPO share performance. Overall, our results show that mandatory disclosure of earnings forecasts can impede capital market efficiency once it goes beyond historical financial information to involve compulsory projections of future performance

The share of small and medium-sized enterprise in Greek manufacturing

This paper examines the determinants of small establishment shares in Greek manufacturing and compares the results to previous findings for U.S. small firms. Two groups of explanatory variables are used: Industry variables and small-firm performance variables. Both types of variables are found to have an impact on the determination of small firms shares, with performance variables being at least as strong as industry variables. Measures of entry barriers give mixed results. Capital intensity exercizes an expected negative impact. Advertising intensity shows a trace of positive impact for medium-sized establishments in consumer goods sectors. Operating efficiency of small firms also appears as a strong influence on their shares whereas investment intensity does not appear significant. These results are in partial agreement to earlier findings for U.S. small firms. Their generality is tempered both by the fact that they come from a small country of middle level of development and by the recognition that the year of observation (1983) was at the start of Greece's industrial adjustment to entry in the EEC. Both these concerns constitute areas of future research. © 1993 Kluwer Academic Publishers

Credit rating model development: An ordered analysis based on accounting data

In this paper we propose and test a methodology for constructing a credit rating model. We follow a polytomous ordered probit analysis leading to the specification of statistically significant credit rating intervals. We test our model with accounting data of Greek listed firms over the years 2004-2013, a period which includes both the pre-crisis growth and the crisis phase of the Greek economy and the stock market. Using the empirically-based rating categories that the model generates endogenously, we observe not only a clear and timely response of ratings to the changing economic environment, but we also obtain significant predictive ability over a period of one, two and three years. © 2016 Elsevier B.V

Long-term Performance of Greek IPOs

We analyse the long-run performance of 254 Greek IPOs that were listed during the period 1994-2002, computing buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) over 36 months of secondary market performance. The empirical results differ from international evidence and reveal long-term overperformance that continues for a substantial interval after listing. Measuring these returns in calendar time, we find statistical significance with several of the benchmarks employed. We also find that long-term overperformance is a feature of the mass of IPOs conducted during a pronounced IPO wave. Cross-sectional regressions of long-run performance disclose several significant factors. The study demonstrates that although Greek IPOs overperform the market for a longer period, underperformance eventually emerges, in line with much international evidence. Our interpretation is that the persistence of overperformance over a significant interval is due to excessive supply of issues during the 'hot IPO period'. Results associated with pricing during the 'hot IPO period' indicate positive short- (1-year), medium- (2-year) and negative long-term (3-year) performance. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Long-term Performance of Greek IPOs

We analyse the long-run performance of 254 Greek IPOs that were listed during the period 1994–2002, computing buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) over 36 months of secondary market performance. The empirical results differ from international evidence and reveal long-term overperformance that continues for a substantial interval after listing. Measuring these returns in calendar time, we find statistical significance with several of the benchmarks employed. We also find that long-term overperformance is a feature of the mass of IPOs conducted during a pronounced IPO wave. Cross-sectional regressions of long-run performance disclose several significant factors. The study demonstrates that although Greek IPOs overperform the market for a longer period, underperformance eventually emerges, in line with much international evidence. Our interpretation is that the persistence of overperformance over a significant interval is due to excessive supply of issues during the ‘hot IPO period’. Results associated with pricing during the ‘hot IPO period’ indicate positive short- (1-year), medium- (2-year) and negative long-term (3-year) performance

Innovation and upheaval: early growth in Greek capital market listings and IPOs from 1880 to the Second World War in the Athens Stock Exchange†

The establishment and growth of the Greek stock market were coincident with development episodes, financial upheavals, and geographic expansions of the country's economy over the period 1880–1940. This article explores the growth of the Athens Stock Exchange through new listings and initial public offerings (IPOs) in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We examine changes in exchange governance and listing requirements. On a theme not addressed before, we find that simple listings were far more numerous than actual IPOs. IPOs in Greece remained unregulated throughout the period. Their under-pricing became pronounced in the later parts of the period, especially the 1920s. The study presents data on ‘quasi-IPOs’ (that is, capital increases shortly after listing) and shows that they offer a more accurate assessment of the demand for the financing of listing firms in an emerging market. Robust evidence is presented to show that as the Exchange developed it also underwent a change in character, becoming more oriented to the domestic market and catering to smaller firms in domestic manufacturing in the post-First World War era that marked the end of early globalization. © Economic History Society 201