Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: An Integrated Approach

The literature on political business cycles suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections. The literature on vote and popularity functions suggests that economic conditions systematically affect election outcomes. This paper integrates these two strands of literature. We use Rogo? (1990)’s model of the rational political business cycle to derive the two-way relationship between the win-margin of the incumbent politician and the size of the opportunistic distortion of fiscal policy. This relationship is estimated, for a panel of 275 Portuguese municipalities (from 1979 to 2001), as a system of simultaneous equations (by GMM). The results clearly support the theoretical predictions: (1) opportunism pays o?, leading to a larger win-margin for the incumbent; (2) incumbents behave more opportunistically when they expect a close election race.Voting and popularity functions, opportunism, rational political business cycles, local government, system estimation, Portugal.

ELECTION RESULTS AND OPPORTUNISTIC POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

The literature on political business cycles suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections. The literature on vote and popularity functions suggests that economic conditions systematically affect election outcomes. This paper integrates these two strands of literature. We use Rogoff (1990)’s model of the rational political business cycle to derive the two-way relationship between the win-margin of the incumbent politician and the size of the opportunistic distortion of fiscal policy. This relationship is estimated, for a panel of 275 Portuguese municipalities (from 1979 to 2001), as a system of simultaneous equations (by GMM). The results show that (1) opportunism pays off, leading to a larger win-margin for the incumbent; (2) incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.Voting and popularity functions, opportunism, rational political business cycles, local government, system estimation, Portugal.

Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: A New Test of the Rational Political Business Cycle Model

The literature on the rational political business cycle suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chance of gaining reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of preelection distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that, instead, explores the implied two-way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory. The test is implemented using a panel of 278 Portuguese municipalities (from 1979 to 2005). The results show that (1) opportunism pays off, leading to a larger win-margin for the incumbent; (2) incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.Voting and popularity functions, opportunism, rational political business cycles, local government, system estimation, Portugal

Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach

The authors acknowledge helpful comments from Eric Dubois, Martin Gassebner, Luís Aguiar-Conraria and participants in a session of the 2007 Silvaplana Workshop on Political Economy.The literature on political business cycles suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections. The literature on vote and popularity functions suggests that economic conditions systematically affect election outcomes. This paper integrates these two strands of literature. We use Rogo. (1990)’s model of the rational political business cycle to derive the two-way relationship between the win-margin of the incumbent politician and the size of the opportunistic distortion of fiscal policy. This relationship is estimated, for a panel of 275 Portuguese municipalities (from 1979 to 2001), as a system of simultaneous equations (by GMM). The results clearly support the theoretical predictions: (1) opportunism pays o., leading to a larger win-margin for the incumbent; (2) incumbents behave more opportunistically when they expect a close election race.Francisco Veiga and Linda Veiga wish to thank the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) for funding the project “Interactions between economics and politics in Portugal” under research grant POCI/EGE/58641/2004, of the program POCI 2010 (funded by FCT and FEDER)

An integrated view of electoral results and opportunistic policies

The literature on political business cycles suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic conditions before elections. The literature on vote and popularity functions suggests that economic conditions systematically affect election outcomes. This paper integrates these two strands of literature. We use Rogoff (1990)’s model of the rational political business cycle to derive the two-way relationship between the win-margin of the incumbent politician and the size of the opportunistic distortion of fiscal policy. This relationship is estimated, for a panel of 275 Portuguese municipalities (from 1979 to 2001), as a system of simultaneous equations (by FIML). The results clearly support the theoretical predictions: (1) Opportunism pays off, leading to a larger win-margin for the incumbent; (2) incumbents behave more opportunistically when they expect a close election race.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - program POCI 2010, grant POCI/EGE/58641/2004

Changes in governance : do they help overcome barriers to the implementation of the european standards and guidelines for quality assurance in higher education?

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A parallel multigrid solver for multi-patch Isogeometric Analysis

Isogeometric Analysis (IgA) is a framework for setting up spline-based discretizations of partial differential equations, which has been introduced around a decade ago and has gained much attention since then. If large spline degrees are considered, one obtains the approximation power of a high-order method, but the number of degrees of freedom behaves like for a low-order method. One important ingredient to use a discretization with large spline degree, is a robust and preferably parallelizable solver. While numerical evidence shows that multigrid solvers with standard smoothers (like Gauss Seidel) does not perform well if the spline degree is increased, the multigrid solvers proposed by the authors and their co-workers proved to behave optimal both in the grid size and the spline degree. In the present paper, the authors want to show that those solvers are parallelizable and that they scale well in a parallel environment.Comment: The first author would like to thank the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) for the financial support through the DK W1214-04, while the second author was supported by the FWF grant NFN S117-0

Portuguese Adaptation of Students Engagement in Schools International Scale (SESIS)

The importance of student’s engagement has been recently pointed out in research. However, there has been a lack of engagement assessment instrument, pertaining psychometric qualities. Objective: This paper presents the Portuguese adaptation of the “Student’s Engagement in School International Scale” (SESIS), drawn up from a12 countries international study (Lam et al., 2012; Lam et al., in press). Method: Psychometric properties of this scale were examined with data from 685 students from different grades (6th, 7th, 9th and 10th), from both sexes, and different regions of the country. Results: Factorial analysis of the results, with varimax rotation, lead to three different factors which explain 50.88% of the variance. The scale integrates the original 33 items, and cognitive, affective and behavioural dimensions. For the external validity study, the relationship between student’s engagement in school results and other school variables — academic performance, self-concept — was considered, and significant relations were observed, as expected. Conclusion: The data presented highlights the qualities of SESIS, as well as its usefulness for research purposes. Suggestion: It is suggested the investigation of the extension of SESIS’s three-dimensionality, in future studiesKeywords: Innovation, technology, research projects, etc. [Arial 10-point, justified alignment]