A non-parametric structural hybrid modeling approach for electricity prices

We develop a stochastic model of zonal/regional electricity prices, designed to reflect information in fuel forward curves and aggregated capacity and load as well as zonal or regional price spreads. We use a nonparametric model of the supply stack that captures heat rates and fuel prices for all generators in the market operator territory, combined with an adjustment term to approximate congestion and other zone-specific behavior. The approach requires minimal calibration effort, is readily adaptable to changing market conditions and regulations, and retains sufficient tractability for the purpose of forward price calibration. The model is illustrated for the spot and forward electricity prices of the PS zone in the PJM market, and the set of time-dependent risk premiums are inferred and analyzed

Regulation and administered contracts revisited: Lessons from transaction-cost economics for public utility regulation

This article reexamines the administered contracts approach to regulation in light of recent empirical research that establishes the importance of transaction-costs in the organizational choice and design decisions. After reviewing the fundamentals of transaction cost reasoning and the franchise bidding-versus-regulation debate, the study surveys the empirical literature on franchise bidding, contracting, and vertical integration. The implications of transaction-cost theories for current policies toward pubic utility regulation and deregulation are also addressed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47841/1/11149_2004_Article_BF00134817.pd