Cognitive bias and the order of examination in forensic anthropological non-metric methods: a pilot study

Research has established that contextual information has the potential to influence the decisions of examiners in various forensic domains, including forensic anthropology. Studies have demonstrated that the non-metric sex estimation methods are susceptible to issues of cognitive bias, however the different types of stimuli that can influence the decision-making process remain understudied. As forensic anthropologists will examine multiple skeletal elements to estimate the sex of skeletal remains, a pilot study was designed to assess the potential of cognitive bias resulting from the order of examination. Two groups performed a non-metric sex estimation of the innominates and the skull with methods from Standards on one individual complete skeleton. Group A examined the skull first followed by the innominates, while Group B examined the innominates first followed by the skull. Results reveal a significant difference between the two groups in the sex estimation of the innominates and the complete skeleton (p = 0.020 and p = 0.022, respectively). This research demonstrates that order of examination for sex estimation may act as context and potentially influence the subsequent analyses. Additional research is necessary to broaden the understanding of decision-making and aid in the establishment of standard operating procedures designed to mitigate the potential effects of cognitive bias

The Power of Contextual Effects in Forensic Anthropology: A Study of Biasability in the Visual Interpretations of Trauma Analysis on Skeletal Remains.(Proceedings of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences. February 2013. Volume XIX.)

The potential for contextual information to bias assessments in the forensic sciences has been demonstrated, focusing on the DNA, ballistics, and friction ridge analysis disciplines. This has been discussed in the National Academy of Sciences Report, Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. However, in many forensic disciplines, such as anthropology, the presence of bias, its impact on objectivity, and how to mitigate its effects is still not fully assessed or appreciated. Effects that may impact the judgment and decision-making of forensic anthropologists need to be measured. No studies have been performed within the discipline assessing possible biasing effects within visual analysis. Biasability potential within forensic anthropology was examined by constructing an experiment that analyzed the effects of external manipulations on judgment and decision-making in visual trauma assessment. This research demonstrates that bias can be detected in the field of forensic anthropology, highlighting the importance of recognizing issues that may influence interpretation during investigation and analysis, as well as the need for further research on how to mitigate these effects

A cultural change to enable improved decision-making in forensic science: A six phased approach

There has been an increased engagement by researchers in understanding the decision-making processes that occur within forensic science. There is a rapidly growing evidence base underpinning our understanding of decision-making and human factors and this body of work is the foundation for achieving truly improved decision-making in forensic science. Such an endeavour is necessary to minimise the misinterpretation of scientific evidence and maximize the effectiveness of crime reconstruction approaches and their application within the criminal justice system. This paper proposes and outlines a novel six phased approach for how a broadening and deepening knowledge of decision-making in forensic science can be articulated and incorporated into the spheres of research, practice, education, and policy making within forensic science specifically, and the criminal justice system more generally. Phases 1 and 2 set out the importance of systematic examination of the decisions which play a role throughout forensic reconstruction and legal processes. Phase 3 focuses on how these decisions can, and should, be studied to understand the underlying mechanisms and contribute to reducing the occurrence of misleading decisions. Phase 4 highlights the ways in which the results and implications of this research should be communicated to the forensic community and wider criminal justice system. Lastly, the way in which the forensic science domain can move forwards in managing the challenges of human decision-making and create and embed a culture of acceptance and transparency in research, practice and education (learning and training) are presented in phases 5 and 6. A consideration of all 6 connected phases offers a pathway for a holistic approach to improving the transparency and reproducibility of decision making within forensic science

Evaluating intuitive decision-making in non-metric sex estimation from the cranium: an exploratory study

In recent years, forensic science has seen a rise in the number of multidisciplinary studies examining the effect of human cognition on the evaluation of forensic evidence. Notably, the House of Lords’ report highlighted the need for further investigation of the consequences of cognitive factors on decision-making processes involved in evidence evaluation and interpretation. Utilizing the concepts of intuitive and methodical decision-making, this pilot study investigated this dichotomy within the field of forensic anthropology, applied to sex estimation from the skull. Participants were asked to estimate the biological sex of six crania in two experiments: once ‘intuitively’ under time-pressure, and once by rationally applying the Acsádi and Nemeskéri method with no time-pressure. The potential influence of experience and its correlation with the participants’ confidence levels was also explored. The results demonstrate that intuitive and methodical evaluations can be consistent with each other, yet consistency decreases as ambiguity increases. Confidence was affected more by time availability, and less by level of experience. The insights from this exploratory study address how decision-making processes are involved in the examination of skeletal remains and offers justification for future exploration into the value of applying wider decision-making theories in the field of forensic anthropology

Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case.

When new forensic evidence becomes available after a conviction there is no systematic framework to help lawyers to determine whether it raises sufficient questions about the verdict in order to launch an appeal. This paper presents such a framework driven by a recent case, in which a defendant was convicted primarily on the basis of audio evidence, but where subsequent analysis of the evidence revealed additional sounds that were not considered during the trial. The framework is intended to overcome the gap between what is generally known from scientific analyses and what is hypothesized in a legal setting. It is based on Bayesian networks (BNs) which have the potential to be a structured and understandable way to evaluate the evidence in a specific case context. However, BN methods suffered a setback with regards to the use in court due to the confusing way they have been used in some legal cases in the past. To address this concern, we show the extent to which the reasoning and decisions within the particular case can be made explicit and transparent. The BN approach enables us to clearly define the relevant propositions and evidence, and uses sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of the evidence under different assumptions. The results show that such a framework is suitable to identify information that is currently missing, yet clearly crucial for a valid and complete reasoning process. Furthermore, a method is provided whereby BNs can serve as a guide to not only reason with incomplete evidence in forensic cases, but also identify very specific research questions that should be addressed to extend the evidence base and solve similar issues in the future.This research was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK through the Security Science Doctoral Research Training Centre (UCL SECReT) based at University College London (EP/G037264/1), and the European Research Council (ERC-2013-AdG339182-BAYES_KNOWLEDGE)

Case Based Representation and Retrieval with Time Dependent Features

Abstract. The temporal dimension of the knowledge embedded in cases has often been neglected or oversimplified in Case Based Reasoning sys-tems. However, in several real world problems a case should capture the evolution of the observed phenomenon over time. To this end, we propose to represent temporal information at two levels: (1) at the case level, if some features describe parameters varying within a period of time (which corresponds to the case duration), and are therefore collected in the form of time series; (2) at the history level, if the evolution of the system can be reconstructed by retrieving temporally related cases. In this paper, we describe a framework for case representation and retrieval able to take into account the temporal dimension, and meant to be used in any time dependent domain. In particular, to support case retrieval, we provide an analysis of similarity-based time series retrieval techniques; to support history retrieval, we introduce possible ways to summarize the case content, together with the corresponding strategies for identifying similar instances in the knowledge base. A concrete ap-plication of our framework is represented by the system RHENE, which is briefly sketched here, and extensively described in [20].