Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of daily maximum (T(max)) and minimum (T(min)) temperatures can both be detrimental to human health. Previous studies have concluded that the frequency of global heat waves has increased over recent decades, with greater increases in T(min)- than T(max)-heat waves in several regions. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with heatwaves manifest during daytime versus nighttime hours over the United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). A daytime (nighttime) heat wave is defined as average daytime (nighttime) temperature exceeding its calendar day 90th percentile for at least 3 days. Over 1980-2018, the number of heat wave days per summer has increased over much of the United States. Trends are stronger for nighttime versus daytime heat wave frequency over the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest United States. Local and remote processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of clouds, precipitation, soil moisture, and fluxes of heat and moisture. Finally, we characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with daytime and nighttime heat waves over different regions of the United States

The Effects of an Improved Dynamic Vegetation Phenology Representation in a Global Land Surface Model

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major driver of the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere through its component mechanisms, including plant transpiration (T) and soil evaporation. To accurately capture land-atmosphere interactions in global Earth System Models, it is thus critical that the underlying land surface models accurately model both the land hydrology as well as the dynamic response of vegetation to environmental drivers. In an effort to introduce a more realistic vegetation representation, the NASA Catchment land surface model, which is part of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), has previously been merged with the carbon and nitrogen physics modules of the Community Land Model version 4, resulting in the new Catchment-CN model. Catchment-CN has inherited the advanced treatment of land surface hydrology of Catchment, but is additionally able to dynamically model the response of vegetation to environmental drivers, in contrast to the fixed vegetation climatology that was prescribed in Catchment. Recently, the parameterization of Catchment-CN vegetation has been augmented to better account for variability of vegetation responses to external forcings within existing plant functional types, and vegetation parameters have been calibrated against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically radiation. These efforts have led to a significant reduction in the RMSE of modeled photosynthetic activity with respect to observations.This presentation investigates the effect of the improved vegetation representation on the partitioning of ET within Catchment-CN. Specifically, we compare global maps of the T:ET ratio across different temporal scales in (1) the original Catchment model, (2) the original Catchment-CN model, and (3) the augmented and calibrated Catchment-CN model. The modeled T and ET estimates are compared against a comprehensive set of ground observations from various field studies, as well as independent global T:ET estimates from different ET algorithms provided in the context of the Water Cycle Observation Multi-mission Strategy ? Evapotranspiration (WACMOS-ET) initiative

Problems of Migrant Workers in the Middle East A Case Study of Return Female Migrants in Sri Lanka

There is overwhelming evidence that the increase in labour migration from SriLanka to the Middle East (ME) was due to the rapid development of economic andsocial activities in oil exporting countries. Of a total of 248, 096 of Sri Lankans whohad migrated for employments there, 247, 119 had gone to the ME. The number offemale migrants has increased significantly over the last three decades. Approximatelyhalf of the estimated 214 million international migrants worldwide were females. In SriLanka, women migrants have increased for the period during 1996-2009 with theexception of 2008 where male comprised 51 percent of the total migrants. Thecontribution of formal foreign employment remittances to Sri Lankan economy wasLKR Million 382, 801 in 2009. Migration also alleviates unemployment and incomedeficiency among the poorer segments of Sri Lanka‟s population. Nevertheless,domestic women workers in ME are subjected to abuse, violence, salary discriminationsand inhuman working conditions. Limited research has been undertaken to identifyproblems of domestic women workers in ME. The objectives of this study were to;identify the problems faced by female migrants, examine the reasons for the identifiedproblems and identify the institutional intervention in the prevention of problems. Atotal of 60 female returnees including 39 from Kuliyapitiya West Divisional SecretariatDivision and 21returnees who had come to complain their problems to ForeignEmployment Bureau were selected for the study. The overall findings highlight that,83% of female migrants have been suffering from mental and physical harassment andsalary discriminations. They have also been deceived by job agents regarding theworkload and salaries. The study further revealed that the problems were highlydependent on migrant‟s age, gender, ethnicity, education level and pre-migrationtraining.Key words: Gender, Middle East, Female migrants, Returnees

Improving Water Level and Soil Moisture Over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

New model structure for peatlands results in improved skill metrics (without any parameter calibration) Simulated surface soil moisture strongly affected by new model, but reliable soil moisture data lacking for validation

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Product - Phase 1: Improving Vegetation Simulations Through Observation-Driven Parameter Estimation

Simulations of hydrological fields as well as water, energy and carbon fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere are crucial for a wide range of applications, including agricultural advisories, forecasts of (short-term) atmospheric behavior and seasonal weather predictions including forecasts of extreme events, such as heatwaves or droughts. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 (L4) Eco-Hydrology (ECO) project aims to improve modeled estimates of the terrestrial water, energy and carbon fluxes and states by developing a fully-coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation (DA) algorithm. The DA system is developed for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Catchment-CN land surface model, which combines land hydrology components of the GEOS-5 Catchment model with dynamic vegetation components of the Community Land Model version 4. Catchment-CN fully couples the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, allowing feedbacks from the land hydrology to the biosphere and vice versa. For SMAP L4 ECO a calibration of the Catchment-CN vegetation parameterization against observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is implemented to improve the model's standalone skill. Next, the DA algorithm used to produce the SMAP L4 soil moisture product is adapted to Catchment-CN to assimilate SMAP brightness temperatures and inform the model's land hydrology component. The DA system is further extended to assimilate MODIS FPAR observations in order to constrain the model's dynamic vegetation component. In this presentation, we demonstrate that the Catchment-CN parameter calibration leads to more realistic vegetation simulations and reduces the root mean squared error between modeled and observed vegetation states across the model's various plant functional types. We also show that the assimilation of SMAP observations is able to improve the average correlation, bias and unbiased RMSE between the modeled surface and root zone soil moisture estimates, and ground observations from the SMAP core validation sites

What do We Know the Snow Darkening Effect Over Himalayan Glaciers?

The atmospheric absorbing aerosols such as dust, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) are now well known warming factors in the atmosphere. However, when these aerosols deposit onto the snow surface, it causes darkening of snow and thereby absorbing more energy at the snow surface leading to the accelerated melting of snow. If this happens over Himalayan glacier surface, the glacier meltings are expected and may contribute the mass balance changes though the mass balance itself is more complicated issue. Glacier has mainly two parts: ablation and accumulation zones. Those are separated by the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA). Above and below ELA, snow accumulation and melting are dominant, respectively. The change of ELA will influence the glacier disappearance in future. In the Himalayan region, many glacier are debris covered glacier at the terminus (i.e., in the ablation zone). Debris is pieces of rock from local land and the debris covered parts are probably not affected by any deposition of the absorbing aerosols because the snow surface is already covered by debris (the debris covered parts have different mechanism of melting). Hence, the contribution of the snow darkening effect is considered to be most important "over non debris covered part" of the Himalayan glacier (i.e., over the snow or ice surface area). To discuss the whole glacier retreat, mass balance of each glacier is most important including the discussion on glacier flow, vertical compaction of glacier, melting amount, etc. The contribution of the snow darkening is mostly associated with "the snow/ice surface melting". Note that the surface melting itself is not always directly related to glacier retreats because sometimes melt water refreezes inside of the glacier. We should discuss glacier retreats in terms of not only the snow darkening but also other contributions to the mass balance

Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In addition, a comparison of evapotranspiration and soil moisture estimates over peatlands will be presented, albeit only with limited ground-based validation data. We will discuss strengths and weaknesses of the new model by focusing on time series of specific validation sites

Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in the United States are, on balance, highest for MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim Land, somewhat lower for MERRA-Land, and lower still for MERRA