Sensitivity to Key Parameters of Short Run Simulation Results of Terms of Trade Shocks in a Kenyan CGE Model

This paper presents results from a CGE model where the twin terms of trade shocks that the Kenyan economy faced in the 1970s have been considered. The paper addresses the question of the robustness of the simulation results from these shocks through sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the model, namely the trade elasticities and the wage indexation parameter. The paper shows that the extent to which Kenya as a primary commodity exporting country suffers from the 'Dutch disease' depends to an extent on the responsiveness of its primary exports to relative price changes in the export supply function. The higher the levels of elasticities of transformation the more pronounced is the extent of the 'Dutch disease' phenomenon resulting from a booming agricultural sector. Moreover, the simulation results of the terms of trade shock were found to be extremely robust with regard to different values of Armington elasticities. Lastly, the paper shows the importance of a wage indexation parameter that closely reflects the institutional arrangements under which wages are formed. a parameter that fixes money wages resulted in expansionary and less inflationary external shock. These results significantly differ from the outcome of the external shocks in case the real wages are fixed instead

Transitioning adolescents with diabetes mellitus from pediatric to adult clinical care at Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital, Eldoret, Kenya

Objectives: To determine the proportion of adolescents with diabetes mellitus who met the elements of appropriate transitioning and to describe the process and possible determinants of transitioning adolescents with diabetes mellitus from pediatric to adult care at MTRH.Design: Mixed methods explanatory cross-sectional study design.Setting: Pediatric and adult diabetic clinics at MTRH.Subjects: Adolescents with diabetes mellitus aged between 14 and 19 years; Guardians who accompanied the adolescents; Health care providers (HCP).Interventions: Semi-structured questionnaires for adolescents and guardians; focus group discussions with the adolescents; key informant interviews with the health care providers.Main Outcome Measures: Proportion of adolescents who had appropriately transitioned; Process of transitioning; Barriers and facilitators of transitioning.Results: None of the adolescents met all the elements of appropriate transitioning. Transitioning was described in four ways: Short discussion informing the adolescent that they had to move to the adult clinic; Moving to the adult clinic without any explanation; Requested whether they felt ready to move to the adult clinic; Compelled to move to the adult clinic despite raising objection.Conclusion: None of the adolescents in the adult clinic met all the elements of appropriate transitioning. The adolescents were moved from the pediatric to the adult diabetic clinics through an event of transfer. Facilitators of transitioning - suggestion to introduce adolescent-focused clinics and sharing information on transitioning with the parents and adolescents. Barriers to transitioning - payment for services and delays before seeing the doctors on the adult care

Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya

Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essential in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key benchmark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the determining the structural fiscal position of the government. This paper attempts to measure Kenya.s potential output and output gap using alternative statistical techniques and structural methods. Estimation of potential output and output gap using these techniques shows varied results. The estimated potential output growth using different methods gave a range of .2.9 to 2.4 percent for 2000 and a range of .0.8 to 4.6 for 2001. Although various methods produce varied results, they however provided a broad consensus on the over-all trend and performance of the Kenyan economy. This study found that firstly, potential output growth is declining over the recent time and secondly, the Kenyan economy is contracting in the recent years.

Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya

Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essential in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key benchmark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the determining the structural fiscal position of the government. This paper attempts to measure Kenya.s potential output and output gap using alternative statistical techniques and structural methods. Estimation of potential output and output gap using these techniques shows varied results. The estimated potential output growth using different methods gave a range of .2.9 to 2.4 percent for 2000 and a range of .0.8 to 4.6 for 2001. Although various methods produce varied results, they however provided a broad consensus on the over-all trend and performance of the Kenyan economy. This study found that firstly, potential output growth is declining over the recent time and secondly, the Kenyan economy is contracting in the recent years