Is Aid for Trade Effective? A Quantile Regression Approach

This paper investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) improves export performance, i.e. does AfT lead to greater exports? Using panel data and panel quantile regression, our results suggest that overall AfT disbursements promote the export of goods and services mainly for the .50 and .75 quantiles. Our results also show that for some types of AfT this effect essentially vanishes at the lower tail of the conditional distribution of exports. Hence, countries that export more in volume are those benefiting most from AfT. We also investigate which types of AfT are effective. In particular, we find that aid used to build production capacity is effective. This type of aid is associated with higher exports for almost all quantiles, with the effect increasing at the upper tail of the conditional distribution. Aid used to build infrastructure is also found to affect exports at the upper tail of the distribution. In contrast, aid for trade policy and aid disbursed for general budget support (an untargeted type of aid) are not associated with greater export levels. This finding holds true irrespective of the quantile

Consequences of Economic Partnership Agreements between East and Southern African Countries and the EU for Inter- and Intra-regional Integration

The European Union is currently negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with six African, Caribbean and Pacific country groupings, aiming at establishing mutual free trade. This paper empirically assesses the impact of the EPAs on trade flows and government revenues for 22 East and Southern African countries and discusses implications for intra-regional integration. The results indicate that while moderate trade effects can be expected, relatively large budget effects are likely to occur in a number of these countries, exposing them to considerable structural and financial adjustment requirements. Also, EPAs would strengthen the need to consolidate overlapping intra-regional integration schemes

Sensitivity to Key Parameters of Short Run Simulation Results of Terms of Trade Shocks in a Kenyan CGE Model

This paper presents results from a CGE model where the twin terms of trade shocks that the Kenyan economy faced in the 1970s have been considered. The paper addresses the question of the robustness of the simulation results from these shocks through sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the model, namely the trade elasticities and the wage indexation parameter. The paper shows that the extent to which Kenya as a primary commodity exporting country suffers from the 'Dutch disease' depends to an extent on the responsiveness of its primary exports to relative price changes in the export supply function. The higher the levels of elasticities of transformation the more pronounced is the extent of the 'Dutch disease' phenomenon resulting from a booming agricultural sector. Moreover, the simulation results of the terms of trade shock were found to be extremely robust with regard to different values of Armington elasticities. Lastly, the paper shows the importance of a wage indexation parameter that closely reflects the institutional arrangements under which wages are formed. a parameter that fixes money wages resulted in expansionary and less inflationary external shock. These results significantly differ from the outcome of the external shocks in case the real wages are fixed instead

Transitioning adolescents with diabetes mellitus from pediatric to adult clinical care at Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital, Eldoret, Kenya

Objectives: To determine the proportion of adolescents with diabetes mellitus who met the elements of appropriate transitioning and to describe the process and possible determinants of transitioning adolescents with diabetes mellitus from pediatric to adult care at MTRH.Design: Mixed methods explanatory cross-sectional study design.Setting: Pediatric and adult diabetic clinics at MTRH.Subjects: Adolescents with diabetes mellitus aged between 14 and 19 years; Guardians who accompanied the adolescents; Health care providers (HCP).Interventions: Semi-structured questionnaires for adolescents and guardians; focus group discussions with the adolescents; key informant interviews with the health care providers.Main Outcome Measures: Proportion of adolescents who had appropriately transitioned; Process of transitioning; Barriers and facilitators of transitioning.Results: None of the adolescents met all the elements of appropriate transitioning. Transitioning was described in four ways: Short discussion informing the adolescent that they had to move to the adult clinic; Moving to the adult clinic without any explanation; Requested whether they felt ready to move to the adult clinic; Compelled to move to the adult clinic despite raising objection.Conclusion: None of the adolescents in the adult clinic met all the elements of appropriate transitioning. The adolescents were moved from the pediatric to the adult diabetic clinics through an event of transfer. Facilitators of transitioning - suggestion to introduce adolescent-focused clinics and sharing information on transitioning with the parents and adolescents. Barriers to transitioning - payment for services and delays before seeing the doctors on the adult care

Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya

Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essential in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key benchmark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the determining the structural fiscal position of the government. This paper attempts to measure Kenya.s potential output and output gap using alternative statistical techniques and structural methods. Estimation of potential output and output gap using these techniques shows varied results. The estimated potential output growth using different methods gave a range of .2.9 to 2.4 percent for 2000 and a range of .0.8 to 4.6 for 2001. Although various methods produce varied results, they however provided a broad consensus on the over-all trend and performance of the Kenyan economy. This study found that firstly, potential output growth is declining over the recent time and secondly, the Kenyan economy is contracting in the recent years.

Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya

Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essential in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key benchmark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the determining the structural fiscal position of the government. This paper attempts to measure Kenya.s potential output and output gap using alternative statistical techniques and structural methods. Estimation of potential output and output gap using these techniques shows varied results. The estimated potential output growth using different methods gave a range of .2.9 to 2.4 percent for 2000 and a range of .0.8 to 4.6 for 2001. Although various methods produce varied results, they however provided a broad consensus on the over-all trend and performance of the Kenyan economy. This study found that firstly, potential output growth is declining over the recent time and secondly, the Kenyan economy is contracting in the recent years